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Understanding Small Group Evolution: A Strategic Analysis

This study explores the dynamics of small group evolution using key parameters: Leadership (L), Bonding (B), and Diversity (D). By analyzing the interplay of these factors, we address whether three fundamental parameters can adequately describe group evolution. Case studies, including start-up companies and militant groups, illustrate strategic interactions within group development. While visual representations often claim “a picture is worth a thousand words,” we assert that simplified metrics (L, B, D) offer essential insights into the complexities of group dynamics. Future analysis will focus on patterns of strategic reasoning to further unravel these evolutionary processes.

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Understanding Small Group Evolution: A Strategic Analysis

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  1. Scott Atran et al, Marc Sageman Rajesh Kasturirangan, Kobi Gal Small Group Evolution Whitman Richards AFOSR MURI Review 17 Dec 07

  2. The Problem Number of Graphical Forms: Typical Group Representation: n=6: 110 n=8: 850 n=10: 10 million n=12: 150 billion A Picture is NOT worth 1000 words !!

  3. Proposed Solution: Three subgraphs that capture key properties of group formation Leadership: L = 1.0 Bonding: B = 1.0 Diversity: D = 0.92

  4. Leadership: L = 0.67 (1.0) Bonding: B = 0.875 (1.0) Diversity: D = 0.33 (0.92) L ~ normalized sum of diff in vertex degrees B ~ avg. number of among vertex & neighbors D ~ num. K2 separated by at least two edge steps (Non-adjacent clusters of Kn increase diversity.) L, B, D parameters are not independent

  5. Question Can only three parameters (L,B,D) adequately describe a group during its evolution (i.e, is this compression of pictorial information sufficient) ? Ans: Yes ! but ……. modeling the evolutionary dynamics will require the application of theories for strategic play….

  6. An Example of Group Formation & Evolution (to illustrate strategic aspects and model form)

  7. Note: adding a cluster reduces overall bonding

  8. Equilibrium? What’s Next?

  9. Small Group Evolution: example

  10. CASE STUDIES Start-up Company Madrid Militant Group

  11. Start-up Evolution

  12. Madrid Group Evolution

  13. 3. Is there an optimal evolutionary path ? (e.g. context, internal vs external forces on group, objectives ) Summary 1. L, B, D parameters describe Small Group evolution (pictures are not always worth 1000 words) 2. Evolution entails strategic play (game theoretic) Future => analysis of patterns of strategic reasoning

  14. Ring Banten Group An-Nur Group Kompak Group Accommodations Group = Lukmanul Group = Ngruki Ties = an-Nur Group = Ring Banten Group = Kompak Group = Afghan Ties = Misc Other + = Dead = Arrest Core Bombing Group

  15. Disjoint dipoles are separated by at least two edge steps Definitions n = number of vertices; di = degree of vertex vi (Non-adjacent clusters of Kn which increase diversity.)

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