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Analyzing Cost Trends and Resource Potential in Offshore Wind Energy

This report explores the cost dynamics associated with offshore wind energy, correlating costs to wind speeds and resource availability. A comprehensive analysis demonstrates potential future scenarios based on historical studies, highlighting constraints such as sea usage and maintenance costs. Key takeaways include the analysis of optimal locations for wind farms, capital costs, annual yield expectations, and strategies to reduce costs through larger machines and innovative foundation designs. With a cautious outlook, the report emphasizes the importance of siting options and understanding market dynamics for effective offshore wind development.

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Analyzing Cost Trends and Resource Potential in Offshore Wind Energy

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  1. Cost trends for Offshore Wind - and a look at the resources David Milborrow dmilborrow@compuserve.com

  2. Objectives • Quantify costs • These are linked to wind speeds • so what are the winds (m/s) ? • and how much (sq km) ? • Resource basis: detailed D.En/CEGB study gives indicative answers on resource • note that water depths, etc, unchanged since 1982! • A cautious look into the future

  3. Offshore wind: constraints • Sea usage • Shipping • Military activity • Dredging • Oil rigs • Fishing? • Cost drivers • Water depth • Distance offshore • Grid connection points

  4. How much sea?

  5. Offshore resource 1982 study England and Wales 19402 sq km Av wind 8.8 m/s ~1000 TWh Scotland 2343 sq km Av wind 9.2 m/s ~ 132 TWh “Probable” Solid – “probable” Open – “possible”

  6. Constraints

  7. Cost impacts • PLUS • Foundations • Marinisation • Wave dynamics • ConstructionTotal +30-50%O&M...........+0-50% • MINUS • Higher winds = increased output (Not UK, ES, GR)-30 to + 30% on price Overall: + 20-80% on onshore electricity price, but very site-specific

  8. UK price estimatesSource: DTI – “Future offshore” • 100 MW wind farm, costs in £MTurbines 51 Electrical 25Foundations 16 Other 8 • TOTAL 100 (£1000/kW) • Annual costs – capital 12* O & M, rent 3.95 • Annual yield: 310 GWh • Generation cost ~ £51/MWh *Assumes 10% cost of capital and 20 yr depreciation

  9. Prices are what you want them to be

  10. Resource and cost – England and Wales

  11. Transmission issues • “Best resources in wrong place” • but cannot expect always to use best resources • The location/resource balance: • cheaper to develop in south, even if winds ~0.5 m/s lower? • Best Scottish sites can only afford an extra ~£33/kW/yr TNUoS charges to stay cheaper than The Wash • 20 TWh S of Thames axis, 30 GW in Wash area • Plenty of thermal stations getting old!

  12. Offshore challenges: reduce costs by:- • Larger machine sizes • Foundation design • Larger wind farms, spreading costs of:- • cable connection to shore • Operation and maintenance • specialist equipment for • transporting the turbine • installing foundations • Go further offshore to higher winds?

  13. Exact variations are clearly location-dependent! Wind speed increases with distance offshore

  14. Costs down, energy upA possible scenario in 2012 Near-shore, ~ 60 MW 100 km offshore, ~550 MW

  15. Offshore – future costs (?)

  16. Offshore wind and competitorsResource, cost and risk

  17. Conclusions • Considerable scope for cost reductions, from:- • Larger wind farms • Further offshore • Exact rate of price reductions uncertain, but • Considerable resources, and – • Plenty of siting options

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