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Innovation Success:

Innovation Success: An Empirical Study of Software Development Projects in the Context of the Open Source Paradigm. Jorge Colazo, Ph.D. Candidate. Dissertation Proposal Committee: Prof. Kevin B. Hendricks Operations Management (Chair) Prof. Larry J. Menor Operations Management

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Innovation Success:

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  1. Innovation Success: An Empirical Study of Software Development Projects in the Context of the Open Source Paradigm Jorge Colazo, Ph.D. Candidate Dissertation Proposal Committee: Prof. Kevin B. Hendricks Operations Management (Chair) Prof. Larry J. Menor Operations Management Prof. Anabel Quan-Haase Sociology / Information and Media Studies August 2006

  2. @ a Glance • Topic: Innovation Success (Software) • Practical: How to design a successful software project? • Academic: • IP represents a multi-billion dollar business and is being protected more than ever. However, can opening the IP rights be somehow beneficial for project success? • What kind of development collaboration pattern is best? • Do users and peripheral developers help or hinder? • Field study of working software projects using archival data from source code repositories and other e-artifacts • Unit of study: project • Regression Analysis (OLS / Robust / Cox / Time Series) • Proposal Approved; Data Collection at Advanced Stage

  3. Motivation • Success rates in new product development are stubbornly low • This is especially true in the case of software (4% success rate). Issues: • Developer productivity • Developer retention • Timeliness • Quality • All this can be very costly

  4. Research Focus • How to scholarly approach the problem of improving new software development success? • Growing paradigm in software development: Open Source Software • In OSS the “source code” is available and may be modified and redistributed as per special licenses • Engenders the intervention of a “community” of volunteer developers and users • Development team collaborates freely, choosing own assignments and creating asynchronous collaboration networks

  5. Research Questions How can the unique characteristics of the OSS model improve the software NPDP and enrich what we know about innovation management? 1. How are different OSS licenses associated with development success? 2. How are the spontaneous collaboration patterns in the development team associated with development success? 3. How is the community of peripheral developers and users associated with development success?

  6. Expected Contributions • In a context where IP management is a billion-dollar business and IP is being protected more than ever, will opening the IP rights be beneficial for project success? • What is the most effective networked collaboration structure? • Do users and peripheral developers help or hinder?

  7. The definition of software development success • OM / NPD: Product and Project success • IS: Team outcomes as success indicator • CS: Static metrics can be obtained • Product Success • Popularity • Quality • Process Success • Developer Productivity • Development speed • Developer permanence

  8. Research Model

  9. Research Question 1: IP / Licenses All Licenses: Warranty Disclaimer BSD: The names of original contributors cannot be used to endorse or promote derivatives GPL: Derivatives to be licensed under GPL regardless of original license (modified + non-modified parts) LGPL: Only modifications to LGPL’ed part in derivatives need to be licensed under LGPL

  10. Research Question 1: IP / Licenses • Key concept: Copyleft • The tenets of “hacker ethics” supports better the concept of non-appropriability than the concept of “viral licenses”. • Copylefted projects are more strongly identified with archetypal moral norms of OSS developers

  11. Research Question 2: Collaboration Structure

  12. Research Question 2: Collaboration Structure • Individualistic paradigm • Structure is defined through the aggregation of individuals into meaningful categories (e.g. managers vs. staff) • Network paradigm  • Structure is defined by observed interaction patterns • Actors are the core developers • Ties exist between two developers when they work in one or more common files • The relation is undirected, valued by the number of files worked in common

  13. Research Question 2: Collaboration Structure

  14. Research Question 2: Collaboration Structure Temporal Dispersion

  15. Research Question 3: Community

  16. Hypotheses 1 2 3

  17. Sampling • OSS projects in Source Forge.net • Written in 100% pure “C” • 5 or more core developers •  ~ 120 projects • Quarterly snapshots from beginning of the project • Information retrieval needs custom-written spidering / scraping software

  18. Some Measures

  19. Data Collection

  20. Analysis • Regression Models (OLS / Time Series / Robust Regression / Cox ) • Appropriate for exploratory stage studies • Many diagnostic tests exist that can be used to assess sensitivity of results • Can be adjusted for non-linearities, censored data, etc.

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