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Population Growth

Materials and the Environmen t Part 1 – Major Contributors to Increasing Consumption: Population and Economic Growth (Most recent update April 1, 2013). Population Growth. World Population 1850-1950. Billions. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Programs Center, 2013.

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Population Growth

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  1. Materials and the EnvironmentPart 1 – Major Contributors to Increasing Consumption: Population and Economic Growth(Most recent update April 1, 2013)

  2. Population Growth

  3. World Population 1850-1950 Billions Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Programs Center, 2013.

  4. World Population 1850-2012 Billions Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Programs Center, 2013.

  5. World Population 1850-2012 Sharp increase in growth rate as basic medical care is extended to 100s of millions that hadn’t before had access. Big drop in infant mortality. Billions Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Programs Center, 2013.

  6. World Population 1850-2050(Medium Projection of Growth Assumed After 2000) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Programs Center, 2013.

  7. Growth in Global Population Number of years to add each billion (year) All of recorded history (1800) 130 (1930) 30 (1960) 15 (1975) 12 (1987) 12 (1999) 13 (2012) 16 (2028) 26 (2054) Sources: First and second billion: Population Reference Bureau. Third through ninth billion: United Nations, World Population in 2300 (medium scenario), 2003.

  8. Annual Increase in World Population, 1951-2012 Millions China’s “great leap forward” Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Division, 2013.

  9. World Birth and Death Rates, 1936-2010 Rates of birth, death, and natural increase per 1,000 population Natural Increase Source: Data for 1936-2000 from United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003. Data for 2001-2010 from Population Reference Bureau, 2012.

  10. Rates of Population Increase - 2013 Time UnitPopulation Increase Year 78,044,135 Month 6,503,678 Week 1,496,740 Day 213,820 Hour 8,880 Minute 148 Second 2.5 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Division, 2013.

  11. Average Annual Rate of Population Growth for the World, 1950 – 2020 Continuing Decline Since 1970 Percent Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Division, 2013.

  12. Medium Projections of Population Growth(Billions) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013.

  13. Future population growth will largely occur in the Less Economically Developed Countries

  14. World Population Projection by Level of Economic Development Billions Developing Countries Developed Countries Source: Population Reference Bureau (2013)

  15. But significant growth of the U.S. population is expected as well

  16. Growth of U.S. Population, 1776- 2012 Millions Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013.

  17. Growth of U.S. Population, 1776- 2100 Projection History Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013.

  18. Medium Projections of Population Growth(World pop. in billions, U.S. in millions) Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013.

  19. Discussions about population and population growth tend to trigger great passion and substantial disagreement. But one thing is abundantly clear – continued growth is reducing the margin for error.

  20. . . . the area of biosphere per person becomes progressively smaller. As the population grows . . .

  21. Consider this reality in the context of forests

  22. Forests Then and Now - World • In 1800 • World population was 1 billion • There were about 11 acres (4.5 ha.) of forests for each person in the world • Today • World population is over 7 billion • There are about 1.4 acres (0.6 ha.) of forest for each person in the world

  23. Forests Then, Now, and Future - World By the end of the next century • World population is expected to reach 10 to 11 billion • Even with zero loss of forests over the next 100 years, the amount of forest land for each person in the world will shrink to 0.7 to 0.8 acres (or about 0.3 ha.) - -half the current forest area per capita.

  24. Forests Then and Now – U.S. Source: Population data from U.S. Census Bureau, historical population estimates. Forest area figures from U.S. Forest Service.

  25. Forests Then and Now – U.S. Source: Population data from U.S. Census Bureau, historical population estimates and projections. Forest area figures from U.S. Forest Service; year 2100 figure based scenario in which there is no forest loss between 2010 and 2100.

  26. Reductions in forest land/capita virtually ensure escalating conflict over forest use, and raise the question of where needed wood supplies will come from in the future.

  27. The same is true of minerals, energy resources, food, agricultural fiber, and more.

  28. No less significant, the world will be faced in the 21st century with the challenge of providing food, fuel, shelter, and clothing for a much larger population.

  29. Economic Growth

  30. Economy

  31. Gross Domestic Product: The value of all goods and services produced within the borders of a nation.

  32. Gross World Product: The sum of all Gross Domestic Product values expressed in a common currency.

  33. Gross World Product, 1970-2012 Trillions of 2005 U.S. dollars An increase of 3.6X. World population increased about 1.9x over the same period. Source: United Nations Statistics Division, 2013. (http://unstats.un.org/unsd/snaama/dnllist.asp)

  34. As with Population, Economies of the Developing Nations are Growing Most Rapidly Historical and Projected Growth of World GDP by Level of Economic Development Source: IMF (2013)

  35. China’s Gross Domestic Product(Expressed in Current $US) Billions of Current U.S. Dollars Source: World Bank, 2013.

  36. Coincidentally, those nations with the most rapidly rising populations, are also those with the most rapidly expanding economies.

  37. This translates to rapidly rising consumption.

  38. It is a virtual certainty that consumption of raw materials globally will increase substantially in the future.

  39. Consider housing: One effect of population and economic growth will bedemand for over one billion new housing units globally over the next 50 years.

  40. How will society achieve this while at the same time maintaining an environment that most of us would agree is acceptable for our children and grand- children?

  41. Summary • World and U.S. populations are growing. • The rate of population growth is slowing, though significant and ongoing increase in numbers continues. • Populations are growing most rapidly in the developing nations. • World economic growth is much more rapid than the rate of population growth. – as a result, per capita consumption of goods of all kinds is rising globally.

  42. Summary • The combined effect is a number of challenges for the global society. A key challenge is how to maintain environmental quality for future generations, while at the same time providing for the needs of current generations.

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