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Indicators of Deprivation and Wellbeing in Modern America: A Look Beyond the “Poverty Rate”

Indicators of Deprivation and Wellbeing in Modern America: A Look Beyond the “Poverty Rate”. Nicholas Eberstadt Henry Wendt Chair in Political Economy American Enterprise Institute eberstadt@aei.org Poverty Seminar #6 March 8, 2005. Outline of Presentation.

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Indicators of Deprivation and Wellbeing in Modern America: A Look Beyond the “Poverty Rate”

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  1. Indicators of Deprivation and Wellbeing in Modern America:A Look Beyond the “Poverty Rate” Nicholas Eberstadt Henry Wendt Chair in Political Economy American Enterprise Institute eberstadt@aei.org Poverty Seminar #6 March 8, 2005

  2. Outline of Presentation 1) The Poverty Rate as a predictor of socioeconomic progress and household consumption 2) Expenditure patterns of poor/low income households and associated household characteristics in four major consumption areas: (Nutrition; Housing; Transportation; Health) 3) Additional Indicators of Wellbeing: --Subjective Wellbeing (Happiness) --Crime/Security --Welfare Dependence --Family Stability --Religion in Personal Life --Financial Emergencies 4) Some suggestions for other indicators of wellbeing

  3. U.S. Poverty Rate, 1959-2003 Source: U. S. Census Bureau Historical Poverty Tables, available online at http://www.census.gov/hhes/poverty/histpov/hstpov2.html. Accessed 2/17/05

  4. No Progress for Three Decades?U.S. Poverty Rate, 1973-2003 Source: U. S. Census Bureau Historical Poverty Tables, available online at http://www.census.gov/hhes/poverty/histpov/hstpov2.html. Accessed 2/17/05

  5. Poverty Rate and Other Possible Indicators of Progress against Poverty: 1973 vs. 2001 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau Historical Poverty Tables, Table 2. Available online at http://www.census.gov/hhes/poverty/histpov/hstpov2.html accessed 2/25/05. U.S. Census Bureau Historical Income Tables, Table P-1. Available online at http://www.census.gov/hhes/income/histinc/incperdet.html accessed 2/15/05. House Ways and Means Committe Prints: 108-6, 2004 Green Book, Appendix F and K. Available online at http://www.gpoaccess.gov/wmprints/green/2004.html accessed 2/15/05. U.S. Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of the United States: 2003. Mini Historical Statistics Table HS-22. Available online at http://www.census.gov/statab/hist/HS-22.pdf, accessed 2/15/05

  6. Do U.S. Economic, Labor Force and Antipoverty Policy Trends Correspond with the “Poverty Rate”?: Regressions for 1973-2002 Key: PCI = Per Capita Money Income in Thousand $US UNEM = Civilian Unemployment Rate HS25+ = Percentage of U.S. Population 25 and Older with at least High School Education ANTIPV = Per Capita U.S. Means Tested Spending in Thousand $US (2002 constant dollars) * = p< 0.05; ***= p < 0.001 Parenthetical numbers are “t-statistics” ; year 1974 excluded (lack of ANTIPV data)

  7. Overall Consumer Expenditure Patterns for USA: 1960/61 vs. 2002 Note: 1960/61 suvey results deflated by CPI-U-RS index (http://www.census.gov/hhes/income/ince02/cpiurs/html); mean value of 1960 and 1961 used. Sources: Handbook of Labor Statistics 1975 – Reference Edition, BLS Bulletin 1865 (1978), Table 137; “Consumer Expenditures in 2002”, BLS Reports 974, February 2004, available electronically at http://www.bls.gov/cex/cxsann02.pdf

  8. Consumer Expenditure Patterns for Low Income Americans: 1960/61-2002 Note: Earlier surveys deflated by CPI-U-RS index, mean value of reported years used for 1960/61 and 1972/73. Sources: Handbook of Labor Statistics 1975, loc. cit., Table 137; Consumer Expenditures Survey: Interview Survey 1972-73, BLS Bulletin 1997 (1978), Volume I, Table 10; “Consumer Expenditures in 2002,” loc. cit.

  9. Average Annual Expenditures and Income, Lowest Income Quintile: 1984-2002 Note: Income and expenditures adjusted by CPI-U. Source: United States Census Bureau Current Population Reports: "Income in the United States, 2002." September, 2003. U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. "Consumer Expenditure Survey." Available online at http://www.census.gov/prod/2003pubs/p60-221.pdf, accessed 2/28/05.

  10. Possible factors in the rising long term ratio of expenditures to income for lowest quintile • Changes in survey methods/procedures • Increased importance of non-cash benefits • Increased importance of unreported income/gifts • Increased year-to-year variations in household income

  11. Episodic vs. Chronic Poverty: Measured Poverty for One Month vs. 48 Straight Months, 1996-1999 Source: “Dynamics of Economic Well-Being:Poverty 1996-1999,” U.S. Bureau of the Census, July 2003. Available online at http://www.census.gov/prod/2003pubs/p70-91.pdf, accessed 2/27/05

  12. Duration of Poverty Spells: 1996-1999 Note: Percent. Excludes spells underway during the first interview month Source: “Dynamics of Economic Well-Being:Poverty 1996-1999,” U.S. Bureau of the Census, July 2003. Available online at http://www.census.gov/prod/2003pubs/p70-91.pdf, accessed 2/27/05

  13. Long-term Probability of Staying in Poverty, by Age: 1996-1999 Source: U.S. Census Bureau: “Dynamics of Economic Well-Being: Poverty, 1996 to 1999.” Available online at http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/sipp96/sipp96.html, accessed 2/27/05.

  14. Is Year-to-Year US Income Variability Increasing?Total Family Income Variance and Transitory Variance, 1969-1998 Source: Calculations based on PSID data. Professor Jacob S. Hacker, Yale University. Available online at http://pantheon.yale.edu/~jhacker/PSID_Data_NYT.htm accessed 2/25/05

  15. Composition of Expenditures for Low-Income Households:Changing Characteristics Food/Nutrition Housing/Appliances Transportation Health

  16. Composition of Consumer Expenditures for USA: 1960/61 vs. 2002 (percent) Note: n/a = not available. Sources: Handbook of Labor Statistics 1975, loc. cit., Table 137, “Consumer Expenditures in 2002,” loc. cit.

  17. Composition of Consumer Expenditures for Low Income Americans: 1960/61-2002 (percent) Note: n/a = not available Sources: Handbook of Labor Statistics 1975, Table 137; Consumer Expenditure Series, 1972-73, Vol I, Table 10; “Consumer Expenditures in 2002,” loc. cit.

  18. Percentage of Household Spending Allocated to Food: 1960/61 (BLS CEX Survey)

  19. Percentage of the U.S. Population Underweight, 1960/62-1999/2002 Note: Body mass index of less than 18.5 defined as underweight. Sources: Derived from “Health USA 2004.” Available online at ftp://ftp.cdc.gov/pub/Health_Statistics/NCHS/Publications/Health_US/hus04tables/Table069.xls, accessed 2/27/05.

  20. Percentage of Medically Examined Low-Income Children who are of Short Stature or Underweight: 1973-2003 Note: “Short Stature” and “Underweight” thresholds defined at 5 percentile level of expected norms Source: “2003 Pediatric Nutrition Surveillance National Summary of Trends in Growth and Anemia IndicatorsChildren Aged less than 5 years,” Table 12D. Available online at http://www.cdc.gov/pednss/pednss_tables/html/pednss_national_table12.htm, accessed 2/28/05.

  21. Percentage of Medially Examined Low Income Children with Low Hemoglobin Count, 1973-2003 Source: “2003 Pediatric Nutrition Surveillance National Summary of Trends in Growth and Anemia IndicatorsChildren Aged less than 5 years,” Table 12D. Available online at http://www.cdc.gov/pednss/pednss_tables/html/pednss_national_table12.htm, accessed 2/28/05.

  22. Selected Housing Characteristics: Poor and Other Households, USA: 1970-2001 Note: n/a = not available Sources: Derived from Census of Population 1970: Subject Reports, Low-Income Population Final Report PC (2)-91: Low-Income Population, (Bureau of the Census, 1973), Table 36; 1980 Census of Housing: Volume 1: Characteristics of Housing Units HC 80-1a (Bureau of the Census, 1983), Table 1s. Residential Energy Consumption Survey : Housing Characteristics: 1980 Edition (Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, 1982, Tables 9, 26; 1990 Edition (DOE, 1992), Tables 15; 2001 edition (DOE 2003) Table CEI-5.1a, CEI 5.2a, CE 2.3c; available electronically at http://www.eia.doe.gov/emea/rec37; American Housing Survey of the United States (Bureau of the Census), 2001 edition (2003), Tables 2-3, 2-4.

  23. Selected Housing Appliances: Poor and Other Households, USA: 1970-2001 (percent) Notes: n/a = not available; * = color television; ** = automatic clothes washer; 2 = sum of values for “most used” and “second most used” household oven. Sources: 1970 Census, loc. cit., Table 36; RECS Housing Survey, 1980 edition, Tables 26, 37. 1990 edition, Tables 22, 38; 2001 edition, Tables HC5-3a, HC 7-3a, America Housing Survey, 1989 edition, Table 2-4; 2001 edition, Table 2-4.

  24. Motor Vehicle Patterns for Low Income Americans, 1972/73-2003 (percent) Memorandum item: Share of U.S. families owning one or more cars in 1960: 77%; share owning two or more cars: 15% Note: n/a = not available Sources: “Consumer Expenditure Survey 1972/73, loc. cit., Volume I, Table 10; American Housing Survey for the United States (Bureau of the Census): 1985 edition (1988), Table 2-7; 1989 edition (1991), Table 2-7; 2003 edition (2004) Table 2-7. Historical Statistics of the United States: Colonial Times to 1970 (Bureau of the Census 1975), Vol. II, p. 717.

  25. Poverty Rates vs. Infant Mortality Rates:USA, White Children, 1959-2001 Sources: “Supplemental Analysis of Recent Trends in Infant Mortality,” by Kenneth D. Kochanek, M.A., and Joyce A. Martin, M.P.H. Available online at http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/pubs/pubd/hestats/infantmort/infantmort.htm, accessed 2/14/05. U.S. Census Bureau Historical Poverty Tables, available online at http://www.census.gov/hhes/poverty/histpov/perindex.html, accessed 2/14/05. “Health USA 2004,” National Center for Health Statistics. Available online at http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hus/hus04trend.pdf, accessed 2/23/05. National Center for Health Statistics: “Deaths: Final Data for 1997,” available online at http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr47/nvs47_19.pdf, accessed 2/14/05.

  26. Infant Morality vs. Low Birth Weight:USA, White Children, 1950-2000 Sources: “Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report,” July 12, 2002. Available online at http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm5127a1.htm, accessed 2/23/05. “Health USA 2004,” National Center for Health Statistics. Available online at http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hus/hus04trend.pdf, accessed 2/23/05.

  27. Age-Adjusted Mortality Rates: US Population 25-64, 1950-2002 Source: National Center for Health Statistics, available online at ftp://ftp.cdc.gov/pub/Health_Statistics/NCHS/Publications?Health_US/hus04tables

  28. Proportion of Adult Population with Untreated Dental Caries: 1960/62-1999/2000 Note: Adults ages 18-79. Source: Source: James E. Kelly, Lawrence E. Van Kirk, and Caroline C. Garst, "Decayed, Missing and Filled Teeth in Adults, 1960-1962",NCHS Series 11, no. 23(February 1967), DHEW, Table 4. “Health USA 2004,” National Center for Health Statistics. Table 80, available online at http://ftp.cdc.gov/pub/Health_Statistics/NCHS/Publications/Health_US/hus04tables/Table080.xls, accessed 2/23/05.

  29. Proportion of 65+ Population with no Remaining Natural Teeth: 1960/62-2000 Sources: James E. Kelly, Lawrence E. Van Kirk, and Caroline Garst, "Total Loss of Teeth in Adults: United States, 1960-62) NCHS Series 11, no 27, October 1967, DHEW, p.2. “Health USA 2004,” National Center for Health Statistics. Available online at http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hus/hus04trend.pdf, accessed 2/23/05.

  30. Percent of children under 18 years without a health care visit in the past year, by percent of poverty threshold Year Data Source: National Health Interview Survey

  31. Additional Indicators of Wellbeing: Subjective Wellbeing (Happiness)

  32. Income and Happiness Source: From “Happiness: Does Social Science Have a Clue?” by Richard Layard. Lionel Robbins Memorial Lectures, delivered on 3, 4, 5 March 2003 at the London School of Economics. Available online at http://cep.lse.ac.uk/events/lectures/layard/RL030303.pdf. Accessed 2/22/05.

  33. Income and Happiness in the USA Source: From “Happiness: Does Social Science Have a Clue?” by Richard Layard. Lionel Robbins Memorial Lectures, delivered on 3, 4, 5 March 2003 at the London School of Economics. Available online at http://cep.lse.ac.uk/events/lectures/layard/RL030303.pdf. Accessed 2/22/05.

  34. Suicide Rate, 1900-2002 Sources: “Historical Statistics of the United States: Colonial Times to 1970.” U.S. Census Bureau. Available online at http://www2.census.gov/prod2/statcomp/documents/CT1970p1-09.pdf, accessed 2/15/05. National Center for Health Statistics Data Warehouse, HIST 290. Available online at http://www2.census.gov/prod2/statcomp/documents/CT1970p1-09.pdf, accessed 2/15/05. National Center for Health Statistics Data Warehouse, Provisional Tables on Births, Marriages, Divorces and Deaths, 2000-2002. Available online at http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/datawh/statab/unpubd/nvstab52.htm, accessed 2/16/05.

  35. Effects on Happiness Source: Happiness: Lessons from a New Science, by Richard Layard. Penguin Press: New York, 2005

  36. Additional Indicators Crime/Physical Security

  37. Total and Violent Crime Rates: USA, 1965-2002 Source: U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics. Available online at http://bjsdata.ojp.usdoj.gov/dataonline/Search/Crime/State/StatebyState.cfm, accessed 2/14/05

  38. Homicide Rate: USA, 1950-2002 Source: “Homicide trends in the United States,” Bureau of Justice Statistics Sept. 28, 2004. Available online at www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/homicide, accessed 2/27/05.

  39. Recorded robbery rate per 1,000 population:USA and Selected Countries, 1980-2000 From: “Cross-National Studies in Crime and Justice,” Bureau of Justice Statistics, Sept. 2004. Available online at http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pub/pdf/cnscj.pdf, accessed 2/27/05.

  40. U.S. Incarceration Rate, 1977-2003 Sources: “Correctional populations in the United States, 1997” U.S. Department of Justice Bureau of Justice Statistics. Available online at http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/glance/tables/incrttab.htm, accessed 2/14/05. “Prisoners in 2003” U.S. Department of Justice Bureau of Justice Statistics. Available online at http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/glance/tables/incrttab.htm, accessed 2/14/05.

  41. Jail and Prison Population: USA,1980-2003 Note: Totals for 1998 through 2003 exclude probationers in jail or prison. Source: U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics Correctional Surveys (The Annual Probation Survey, National Prisoner Statistics, Survey of Jails, and The Annual Parole Survey.) Available online at http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/glance/tables/corr2tab.htm, accessed 2/14/05.

  42. Percent of Men Incarcerated, Midyear 2003 Source: “Prison and Jail Inmates at Midyear 2003,” By Paige M. Harrison and Jennifer C. Karberg, May 2004 http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pub/pdf/pjim03.pdf.

  43. “Based on current rates of first incarceration, an estimated 32% of black males will enter State or Federal prison during their lifetime, compared to 17% of Hispanic males and 5.9% of white males.” --­Criminal Offenders Statistics, DOJ Bureau of Justice Statistics Website http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/crimoff.htm#findings December 28, 2004

  44. Additional Indicators: Dependence on Means-Tested Government Benefits

  45. Welfare Dependence in America:Percentage of HHs Receiving Cash Aid and Non-Cash Benefits vs the Family Poverty Rate, USA 1979-2002 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau: Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1995 available online at http://www2.census.gov/prod2/statcomp/index.htm, accessed 2/26/05. CPS Annual Population Survey: U.S. Census Bureau and BLS, various years available online at http://www.census.gov/hhes/income/dinctabs.html , accessed 2/26/05.

  46. Additional Indicators: Family Stability

  47. First Marriage Rate, 1972-1990 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of the United States: 2003, Table 83. Available online at http://www.census.gov/prod/2004pubs/03statab/vitstat.pdf, accessed 2/27/05.

  48. Marriage and Divorce Rates: USA, 1950-2001 Source: “Monthly Vital Statistics Report,” July 14, 1995. National Center for Health Statistics. Available online at http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/mvsr/supp/mv43_12s.pdf, accessed 2/27/05.

  49. Percentage of Children Born to Unmarried Women: USA, 1940-2002 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Statistical Abstract of the United States: 2003. Available online at http://www.census.gov/statab/hist/HS-14.pdf, accessed 2/27/05.

  50. Percentage of Children Living with Both Biological Parents, USA 1980-1996 * Traditional nuclear family: married biological parents and biological siblings in nuclear household. Sources: Census Bureau Current Population Reports: “Living Arrangements of Children, 1996,” pp. 70-74. Available online at http://www.census.gov/prod/2001pubs/p70-74.pdf, accessed 3/1/05.

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