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Enhancing EnKF Analysis with Adaptive Inflation Techniques and Innovation Assessment

saxon avatar
saxon
18 diapositives · 313 Views · Oct 03, 2014

This report examines the performance of the EnKF analysis, focusing on innovation reduction and adaptive inflation strategies. It explores three-hour forecasts, highlighting the adaptations of the Maximum Inflation limit set to 1.2. In various experiments, the effectiveness of unlimited adaptive inflation and perturbations in forecast fields is assessed. Additionally, the report outlines the issues encountered, such as the reduced analysis increments within the CONUS domain, suggesting further localization refinement and perturbation integration for optimized outcomes in both GSI and EnKF methodologies.

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  1. EnKF analysis reduced the innovations but smaller than GSI

  2. Three hours forecast Innovations Start from 0900 with adaptive inflation but with max inflation up to 1.2 (green) Experiments described in the report with adaptive inflation but with max inflation up to 1.2 (red) As second experiments but with unlimited adaptive inflation (blue) As third but add perturbation to the forecast fields before running EnKF(pink) GSI analysis (black) ps Pw:GPSIPW GPS-INTEGRATED PRECIPITABLE WATER

  3. Three hours forecast Innovations Potiention temperature Water vapor mixing ratio

  4. Three hours forecast Innovations X component wind Y component wind

  5. 24 hours analysis increment of GSI and EnKF GSI EnKF adaptive, max inflation=1.2 Surface u EnKF adaptive, unlimited EnKF adaptive unlimit+pert init

  6. 24 hours analysis increment of GSI and EnKF GSI EnKF adaptive, max inflation=1.2 Top level t EnKF adaptive, unlimited EnKF adaptive unlimit+pert init

  7. 24 hours analysis increment of GSI and EnKF GSI EnKF adaptive, max inflation=1.2 Surface temperature EnKF adaptive, unlimited EnKF adaptive unlimit+pert init

  8. 24 hours analysis increment of GSI and EnKF GSI EnKF adaptive, max inflation=1.2 Top level u EnKF adaptive, unlimited EnKF adaptive unlimit+pert init

  9. 24 hours Inflation of T, surface EnKF adaptive, max inflation=1.2 EnKF adaptive, unlimited EnKF adaptive unlimit+pert init

  10. 24 hours prior spred of T, surface EnKF adaptive, max inflation=1.2 EnKF adaptive, unlimited EnKF adaptive unlimit+pert init

  11. 24 hours post spred of T, surface EnKF adaptive, max inflation=1.2 EnKF adaptive, unlimited EnKF adaptive unlimit+pert init

  12. 24 hours Inflation of U, surface EnKF adaptive, max inflation=1.2 EnKF adaptive, unlimited EnKF adaptive unlimit+pert init

  13. 24 hours prior spread of U, surface EnKF adaptive, max inflation=1.2 EnKF adaptive, unlimited EnKF adaptive unlimit+pert init

  14. 24 hours post spread of U, surface EnKF adaptive, max inflation=1.2 EnKF adaptive, unlimited EnKF adaptive unlimit+pert init

  15. Know issues • The increment of EnKF analysis after 24 fours is smaller in the CONUS domain. It is not reasonable since the most of observations are within the CONUS Domain. • The spread is higher outside the CONUS domain and smaller within the CONUS domain which indicates the convergence of EnKF is too faster in the observation area.

  16. Next move • Double check the localization. And the U and V coordinate. • Excluded the observation type ‘pw’, because the innovation of ‘pw’ is larger than GSI even at the first 24 hours analysis • Add properly perturbation to the three hours forecast fields before EnKF analysis. I have tested to use the random cv methods but crashed after 3 days cycle, I’m thinking a way add perturbation in the observation area, since the spread is smaller in the CONUS domain.

  17. inflation taper(r)