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Preliminary Modeling Results

Preliminary Modeling Results. Rhode Island GHG Action Plan Renewable Portfolio Standards. Presentation Overview Input assumptions and modeling approach Generation and credit prices for two cases Change in electricity price Generation mix Cost and carbon reductions.

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Preliminary Modeling Results

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  1. Preliminary Modeling Results Rhode Island GHG Action Plan Renewable Portfolio Standards • Presentation Overview • Input assumptions and modeling approach • Generation and credit prices for two cases • Change in electricity price • Generation mix • Cost and carbon reductions Alison BailieStephen BernowTellus InstituteDecember 4, 2002

  2. Input Assumptions • Two RPS cases for Rhode Island, with renewable generation achieving 20% or 15% of total sales by 2020 • Wind generation imported from New York State is permitted following GIS eligibility case, includes cost adder of 1.5 cents/kWh • Assume CT RPS remains at 2011 levels until 2020 (4% class I and 7% class II) and MA RPS increases to 7% for new resources by 2012 and remains at this level to 2020 (existing stays at 5% throughout) • Wind resources in model adjusted basedon recent mapping analysis by TrueWind

  3. Input Assumptions, cont. • Biomass prices based on EIA assumptions but removed demolition debris from supply • Capital costs for wind decline with learning but increase as best sites are used ($1100/kW in 2010, $1500/kW in 2020) • Natural gas prices based on EIA assumptions but will fluctuate with natural gas demand

  4. Modeling Approach • Our approach is to consider RPS in MA, CT, and RI together and model the NE power pool as a whole. • Cost and carbon reduction estimates are relative to the EIA base case with no RPS in CT and only partial fulfillment of MA RPS • Costs and carbon reduction are allocated to RI based on fraction of new renewable generation required by RI RPS, compared with total of MA + CT + RI • This approach shares costs rather than assigning highest cost to RI

  5. Renewable Generation in NERI reaches 20% in 2020 case • just new renewables- levelized REC price = 2.30 cents/kWh • all prices and costs in real 2000$

  6. Renewable Generation in NERI reaches 15% in 2020 case • just new renewables- levelized REC price = 2.09 cents/kWh • all price and costs in real 2000$

  7. Changes in Electricity Prices Estimate for Rhode Island (2000 cents/kWh) 20% case 15% case

  8. Generation from New Renewables 2020 - New England • Most avoided generation is natural gas

  9. Rhode Island Policy Impacts CO2 emission reductions represent 4% (20% case) and 3% (15% case) of estimated total Rhode Island emissions in 2020

  10. Components of Costs for Rhode Island (cumulative net present value, 2000-2020, million 2000$)

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