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PVAAS: Evaluating Growth, Projecting Performance

PPT Presentation Template: This PPT includes all slides to present a district or building level overview of PVAAS. This was used with a district-wide K-12 faculty group in a small school district, where one grade level represented one building versus multiple buildings on a district level report.

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PVAAS: Evaluating Growth, Projecting Performance

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  1. PPT Presentation Template:This PPT includes all slides to present a district or building level overview of PVAAS. This was used with a district-wide K-12 faculty group in a small school district, where one grade level represented one building versus multiple buildings on a district level report.

  2. PVAAS:Evaluating Growth,Projecting Performance

  3. Today’s Session • Concept of PVAAS • Overview of Reporting • Math and Reading, Grades 4-8 • Math and Reading, Grade 11 • Science, Grades 4, 8 and 11 • Writing, Grades 5, 8 and 11 • School District Data • Questions and Answers

  4. What Is PVAAS?

  5. PVAASIS: • Analysis of existing assessment data • Longitudinal PSSA scores in available content areas • Math, Reading, Science, Writing • Provides reliable estimates • A measure of a school’s effectiveness • Critical Relationship: Growth Data vs. Achievement Data

  6. PVAAS: • Is not another test • Is not a comparison of single test scores • Critical concept: Does not provide a measure of growth for an individual student

  7. Current Data Collection Approaches High Achievement Average Achievement Low Achievement Achievement is based on each student’s ending point.

  8. PVAAS Adds Another Variable To Achievement…Progress Below Growth Standard At or Above Growth Standard Progress is based on each student’s starting point.

  9. Viewing Achievement and Progress Together Scatter Plots: Grades 4-8 Reading and Math

  10. The Scatter Plot Coordinate System Vertical Axis PSSA Percent Proficient or Advanced Growth Standard Boundary One Year Growth AYP Percent Proficient Target Horizontal Axis PVAAS Growth Measure

  11. Scatter Plot Quadrants and Their Meanings Quad 2 Adequate Achievement Negative Growth Quad 1 Adequate Achievement Positive Growth Quad 4 Below Adequate Achievement Positive Growth Quad 3 Below Adequate Achievement Negative Growth

  12. SD Scatter PlotsGrade 4 Reading Math Insert District Scatter Plots Here

  13. SD Scatter PlotsGrade 5 Reading Math Insert District Scatter Plots Here

  14. SD Scatter PlotsGrade 6 Reading Math Insert District Scatter Plots Here

  15. SD Scatter PlotsGrade 7 Reading Math Insert District Scatter Plots Here

  16. SD Scatter PlotsGrade 8 Reading Math Insert District Scatter Plots Here

  17. Viewing Achievement and Progress Together Scatter Plots: Grade 11 Reading and Math

  18. Grade 11 Scatter Plots The PSSA-PVAAS Scatter Plots visually display the following data from the statewide distribution of PSSA results for the most current school year. • Achievement • The mean predicted performance of the cohort. • The actual mean performance of all students in the state is displayed for reference • Growth • School Effect ≈ Observed Mean – Predicted Mean • Standardized School Effect = School Effect relative to its error – displays degree of confidence The following two slides explain the meaning of each of the regions of an 11th grade scatter plot.

  19. The Scatter Plot Coordinate System for Grade 11 Vertical Axis Mean Predicted Scaled Score Growth Descriptor Boundaries (±2SEs) Horizontal Axis Growth Measure in Standard Errors 2010 Mean Scaled Score

  20. Scatter Plot Regions and Their Meanings for Grade 11

  21. SD Scatter PlotsGrade 11 Reading Math Insert District Scatter Plots Here

  22. The TWO Types ofPVAAS Information Looking Forward/Planning… PVAAS Projection Reports For Individual Students and Cohorts of Students Looking Back/Evaluation… Value-added Growth Reports For Cohorts of Students Today NO individual measure of student growth.

  23. PVAAS Reporting

  24. Student Projections Wouldn’t it be great to know the likelihood that a student will be proficient on a future PSSA?

  25. Student Projection Methodology • A separate longitudinal modeling process focused on the performance scores of individual students. • The model uses all of the available data (both math and reading) to project future PSSA performances in Math, Reading, Science and Writing. • Projections can be calculated for an individual student or groups of students.

  26. How do I know that the projectionis accurate? • The projection is precise, and is created using a model that has been reviewed and approved by four different peer review panels and the GAO (US Government Accountability Office). • The most recent 2008 growth model proposal to USDOE includes information regarding the statistical model and projection reliability study. (http://www.ed.gov/admins/lead/account/growthmodel/pa/index.html) • Recent studies have confirmed that the PVAAS projections (even as far as 3 years into the future) are more reliable at looking at the future performance of a student than the most recent PSSA score.

  27. PVAAS Student Projection Report

  28. PVAAS Projections for Groups of Students Student Search

  29. Identified Students Meeting Search Requirements

  30. PVAAS Reporting Projections to Basic, Proficient, and Advanced Grade Last Tested Grade Last Tested Grade Last Tested

  31. Projection Summary Reports • What is it? • Report that summarizes the numbers and percents of students in likelihood ranges of performing at the proficient level on a future PSSA exam. • How might a school use this report? • Intervention Planning • Resource Allocation • Strategic Planning • School Improvement Planning • Cautions • This report provides another indicator about likelihood of future performance.

  32. School (Single Grade)Projection Summary Report

  33. Value-Added Wouldn’t it be great to know if your students made one year’s growth for the year of schooling they experienced last year? In Math and Reading (4-8 and 11)? In Science (4, 8 and 11)? In Writing (5, 8 and 11)?

  34. PVAAS Growth Methods

  35. Value-added Measure of GrowthMath and Reading (Grades 4-8) • Comparison to a State Growth Standard • The Growth Standard specifies the minimal acceptable academic gain from grade to grade for a cohort of students. • The use of a Growth Standard creates the possibility that ALL schools can demonstrate appropriate growth.

  36. PVAAS Value-Added Growth Descriptors – Grade 4 – 8 Math and Reading

  37. PVAAS School ReportGrades 4 through 8 - Math and Reading

  38. What Value-added Gain Means! Cohort’s Achievement 7th grade 66.6 Cohort’s Achievement 6th grade 60.7 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 NCE Scale State Mean = 50 PVAAS Gain ≈ Change in position from 6th to 7th grade ≈ 66.6 – 60.7 ≈ 5.9 NCE points

  39. PVAAS Growth Methods

  40. Value-added Measure of Cohort GrowthMath and Reading (Grade 11)Science (Grades 4, 8, and 11)Writing (Grades 5, 8, and 11) Based on a predictive methodology… • A predicted score is calculated for each student; • Mean of predicted scores is calculated for students in a cohort; • Mean of observed scores of students in the cohort; • School Effect is the difference between the Observed and the Predicted Scores.

  41. PVAAS Predictive Analysis We collect all of the individual student data that is available for a minimum of two years. All of these data are used to develop individual student profiles. PVAAS then calculates a Predicted Performance Value based on the student profile for each student. Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 PSSA PSSA PSSA (11th) 7th8thPredicted Actual

  42. PVAAS Ratings of School Effect Remember: School Effect  Mean of Student Scores – Mean of Predicted Scores So, if the students perform as expected, School Effect  0. The ratings are in terms of the expected value of 0. Not Detectably Different Below Above -2 SEs 0+2 SEs Standard Error (SE) is a measure of variation in the prediction.

  43. Writing, Science & Grade 11 Reading/Math Growth Descriptors

  44. PVAAS School ReportGrades 11- Math and Reading Grades 4, 8 & 11 – Science Grades 5, 8 & 11 – Writing

  45. Summary ofPVAAS Growth Methods

  46. Summary:One Year’s Growth

  47. PVAAS Performance Diagnostic ReportThe Key is the RED Whisker!

  48. Growth Standard MethodologyWhat the whiskers tell us… Exceeded Growth Standard; More than One Year’s Growth Green Met the Growth Standard; Made One Year’s Growth Yellow Growth Standard (One Year’s Growth) Below Growth Standard; Less than One Year’s Growth Rose

  49. Predictive MethodologyWhat the whiskers tell us… ABOVE Expectations -- Observed Score Was Greater Than Predicted Score NDD – No Detectable Difference Between Observed Score and Predicted Score Observed – Predicted (One Year’s Growth) BELOW Expectations -- Observed Score Was Less Than Predicted Score

  50. Performance Diagnostic Report

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