'Ensemble forecast' diaporamas de présentation

Ensemble Forecasting: Calibration, Verification, and use in Applications

Ensemble Forecasting: Calibration, Verification, and use in Applications. Tom Hopson. Outline. Motivation for ensemble forecasting and post-processing Introduce Quantile Regression (QR; Kroenker and Bassett, 1978) p ost -processing procedure Ensemble forecast verification

812 views • 65 slides

Ensemble Prediction Systems and Probabilistic Forecasting

750 views • 50 slides

GSD Participation in Warn on Forecast 2012-2013

GSD Participation in Warn on Forecast 2012-2013. David Dowell Curtis Alexander Stan Benjamin John Brown Ming Hu Haidao Lin Eric James Brian Jamison Patrick Hofmann Joe Olson Tanya Smirnova Steve Weygandt Assimilation and Modeling Branch NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO, USA. HRRR-CONUS. Rapid

590 views • 47 slides

Toward a Real Time Mesoscale Ensemble Kalman Filter

549 views • 40 slides

Kazumasa Aonashi*, Hisaki Eito, and Seiji Origuchi

Kazumasa Aonashi*, Hisaki Eito, and Seiji Origuchi Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan aonashi@mri-jma.go.jp. Jan. 13 2 nd DA workshop. Ensemble-Based Variational Assimilation Method to Incorporate Microwave Imager Data into a Cloud-Resolving Model.

478 views • 40 slides

West-wide and East-wide Seasonal Hydrologic Prediction Systems

West-wide and East-wide Seasonal Hydrologic Prediction Systems PI (West): Dennis P. Lettenmaier (U. of Washington) PI (East): Eric F. Wood (Princeton University) Primary Contributors: Andy Wood (UW) Lifeng Luo (Princeton)

442 views • 35 slides

518 views • 32 slides

Climate Prediction Modeling at NCEP

408 views • 28 slides

Development plan

Development plan. Strategy. Improvement of the operational model The analysis performance The model performance Ground base GPS data process Development to enhance the model performance Ingest new observations DFI New Grid (OP3) HRLDAS EAKF Ensemble forecast GSI. Improve the analysis.

439 views • 27 slides

Inter-Processor communication patterns in weather forecasting models

Inter-Processor communication patterns in weather forecasting models. Tomas Wilhelmsson Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Sixth Annual Workshop on Linux Clusters for Super Computing 2005-11-18. Numerical Weather Prediction. Analysis

379 views • 27 slides

Jan., 2005

The Regional R&D Framework for Ensemble Prediction of Rapidly Developing S.W.P. based on HPN & GRID Technology. Jan., 2005. Jai Ho Oh jhoh@pknu.ac.kr Pukyong National University, Busan, Korea http:// climate.pknu.ac.kr /. Back Ground. 1. Traditional Forecasting. T. r. u. t. h. I.

349 views • 22 slides

Jan., 2005

The Regional R&D Framework for Ensemble Prediction of Rapidly Developing S.W.P. based on HPN & GRID Technology. Jan., 2005. Jai Ho Oh jhoh@pknu.ac.kr Pukyong National University, Busan, Korea http:// climate.pknu.ac.kr /. Back Ground. 1. Traditional Forecasting. T. r. u. t. h. I.

343 views • 22 slides

What is a good ensemble forecast? Chris Ferro University of Exeter, UK

343 views • 21 slides

EMS LJUBLJANA, 2006

345 views • 20 slides

EurEPS

309 views • 16 slides

21 st Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

322 views • 15 slides

Seasonal variation of the errors in an objective analysis over Vietnam area

Seasonal variation of the errors in an objective analysis over Vietnam area. Miki Hattori 1 , Qoosaku Moteki 1 , Jun Matsumoto 1, 2 , Hironari Kanamori 2 and Joji Watanabe 2 1 IORGC/JAMSTEC 2 Department of Geography, Tokyo Metropolitan University .

233 views • 13 slides

Fair scores for ensemble forecasts Chris Ferro University of Exeter

Fair scores for ensemble forecasts Chris Ferro University of Exeter. 13th EMS Annual Meeting and 11th ECAM ( 10 September 2013 , Reading, UK). Evaluating ensemble forecasts. Multiple predictions, e.g. model simulations from several initial conditions.

276 views • 12 slides

PSU realtime ensemble with ARW-EnKF

3 domains (40.5, 13.5&4.5km), 60-member ensemble, assimilate TDR Vr. PSU realtime ensemble with ARW-EnKF.

137 views • 7 slides

Status and Outlook of Taiwan Hot-Start Forecast System

LAPS. LAPS. WRF (ARW) with NFS bg. WRF (ARW) with NFS bg. WRF (ARW) with NCEP AVN bg. WRF (ARW) with NCEP AVN bg. MM5 with NCEP AVN bg. MM5 with NCEP AVN bg. MM5 with NFS bg. MM5 with NFS bg. Ensemble forecast Product: PQPF. Ensemble forecast Product: PQPF.

149 views • 1 slides