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Dr. Volker Steinbach BGR - Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe PowerPoint Presentation
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Dr. Volker Steinbach BGR - Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe

Dr. Volker Steinbach BGR - Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe

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Dr. Volker Steinbach BGR - Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe

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  1. The Importance of the Mineral Raw Materials Supply in Respect to the Competitiveness of the European Economy MAEGS 15 17th September 2007, Tallinn Dr. Volker Steinbach BGR - Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe BGR - Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources

  2. Relative Price Development of the LME Metals 5 prices April 11 spot prices 2 853 US $/ t Aluminium Lead Copper Nickel Zinc Tin 4 2 045 US $/ t 7 971 US $/ t 50 800 US $/ t 3 582 US $/ t 14 435 US $/ t 3 2 1 Source: BGR database 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

  3. High demand by China, but also: Low investment in mining and processing Low exploration expenditures Transport shortages High demand from other highly populated countries Current Situation in the Raw Materials Sector

  4. Comparison CHINA - Germany people to newly manufactured cars Source: VDA, BGR Germany PR China 1996 1 car on 3 625 people 1 car on 23 people

  5. Comparison CHINA - Germany people to newly manufactured cars Source: VDA, BGR Germany PR China 2006 1 car on 305 people 1 car on 15 people

  6. China‘s Share of World Consumption in 2005 Source: BGR

  7. China‘s Share of World Production and Projected Chinese Foreign Investments Source: BGR

  8. Where Are the Major Metal Reserves Situated ? (Distribution of more than 50 % of the global proven and probable reserves) Russia Poland 18% 22% 6% 35% USA 7% 31% Jamaica China Kazakhstan 9% 32% 7% Iron Ore 18% Guinea Indonesia Bauxite 30% Brazil 14% Chromite 88% Chile 19% Copper 12% PGM Australia RSA REE Sources: BGR database, USGS

  9. Mine and Refined Production in 2005: Europe - World mine production refined production  % 100 97.9 94.5 94.4 90.8 97.0 97.6 83.6 82.6 84.3 84.8 79.3 76.7 80 60 40 20 15.7 15.2 17.4 20.7 23.3 16.4 0 Al Fe Zn Ni Cu Pb Bauxite Crude Steel Source: BGR database

  10. EU Import Dependency of Metallic Raw Materials in 2005 EU Metals Industry in 2005: World Ranking Aluminium Copper Zinc Lead Nickel Mining ---- 5 4 5 ---- Refining 3 2 2 2 5 1st Stage processing n.a. 1 1 1 2 Source: Euromines

  11. Scenario: Projected World Steel Comsumption Average growth rates 1970 – 2005 (3,7 %): 1 400 India 5.9 % 9.0 % PR China 1 200 -1.0 % USSR / Russian Federation 0.9 % OECD and Eastern Europe 1 000 800 crude steel consumption mill.t 600 400 200 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Source: BGR database

  12. exports in mill. t 11 Flows of Seaborne Iron Ore Trade In 1960: 121 mill. t 1 20 15 17 3 5 7 9 5 1 19 6 5 5 5 Sources: ThyssenKrupp Steel, BGS

  13. exports in mill. t 11 Flows of Seaborne Iron Ore Trade In 2001: 441 mill. t 2 14 17 35 10 7 4 155 166 24 6 1 Sources: ThyssenKrupp Steel, BGS

  14. exports in mill. t 11 Flows of Seaborne Iron Ore Trade In 2006: 725 mill. t Three companies are controlling71 % of the seaborne iron ore trade: BHP Billiton, CVRD, Rio Tinto 2 18.5 21.5 95 11 8.5 6.2 255 270 30 8 1 Sources: ThyssenKrupp Steel, Eurostat

  15. Iron Ore: European Production and Imports in 2005 Imports:146 200 000 t RoW: 23 Countries RSA 10.7 4.9 Russia 6.3 Production:27 032 950 t Sweden:23 256 000 t Brazil Mauritania 7.0 47.8 7.3 Canada Rest of Europe 7.3 2.1  % 8.7 Ukraine Australia Sweden Sources: Eurostat, BGR database

  16. Availability of Mineral Raw Materials supply and demand increasing demand • bigger reserves • higher lifetimes • no shortages rising prices • higher recycling rates • more substitution • miniaturisation • - human creativity • new technical methods • higher research efforts • new deposits/types • low-grade deposits are becoming economic • - new raw material sources • - human creativity • higher exploration efforts • engaging in higher exploration risks

  17. Worldwide Exploration Budgets (NF Metals) vs CRB Metals Sub-Index 8 800 7 700 6 600 5 500 CRB Metals Sub-Index US$ billion 4 400 3 300 2 200 1 100 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Sources: Metals Economics Group, Reuters

  18. If Monsieur Eiffel built his tower today… he would need just 30 % of the steel … 7 000 t 2 100 t 7 000 t

  19. Geological Aspects of the Availability ofMetallic Raw Materials • In the foreseeable future there will be no limitation to the availability of metallic raw materials. Their availability is a question of costs and of market access. • Metallic raw materials are unevenly distributed in the world. • The occurrences of metallic raw materials are depending on the geology. • Commodity markets are global markets. • We can secure the availability of metallic raw materials in the long term by: domestic production, technical development, substitution, efficient use, recycling, and promotion of free and fair trading conditions on the world markets.

  20. Exploration of new mineral deposits, Technological development: Recycling, substitution, material efficiency Promoting free and fair trading conditions Sources: BASF, Pics Boatnerd, BGR

  21. Europeneeds open and transparent markets ! The European Market Situation - Mineral raw materials are unequally distributed in the world - Commodity markets are global markets - Europe is customer throughoutthe world