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Dr. Volker Steinbach BGR - Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe

The Importance of the Mineral Raw Materials Supply in Respect to the Competitiveness of the European Economy. MAEGS 15 17th September 2007, Tallinn. Dr. Volker Steinbach BGR - Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe. BGR - Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources.

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Dr. Volker Steinbach BGR - Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe

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  1. The Importance of the Mineral Raw Materials Supply in Respect to the Competitiveness of the European Economy MAEGS 15 17th September 2007, Tallinn Dr. Volker Steinbach BGR - Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe BGR - Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources

  2. Relative Price Development of the LME Metals 5 prices April 11 spot prices 2 853 US $/ t Aluminium Lead Copper Nickel Zinc Tin 4 2 045 US $/ t 7 971 US $/ t 50 800 US $/ t 3 582 US $/ t 14 435 US $/ t 3 2 1 Source: BGR database 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

  3. High demand by China, but also: Low investment in mining and processing Low exploration expenditures Transport shortages High demand from other highly populated countries Current Situation in the Raw Materials Sector

  4. Comparison CHINA - Germany people to newly manufactured cars Source: VDA, BGR Germany PR China 1996 1 car on 3 625 people 1 car on 23 people

  5. Comparison CHINA - Germany people to newly manufactured cars Source: VDA, BGR Germany PR China 2006 1 car on 305 people 1 car on 15 people

  6. China‘s Share of World Consumption in 2005 Source: BGR

  7. China‘s Share of World Production and Projected Chinese Foreign Investments Source: BGR

  8. Where Are the Major Metal Reserves Situated ? (Distribution of more than 50 % of the global proven and probable reserves) Russia Poland 18% 22% 6% 35% USA 7% 31% Jamaica China Kazakhstan 9% 32% 7% Iron Ore 18% Guinea Indonesia Bauxite 30% Brazil 14% Chromite 88% Chile 19% Copper 12% PGM Australia RSA REE Sources: BGR database, USGS

  9. Mine and Refined Production in 2005: Europe - World mine production refined production  % 100 97.9 94.5 94.4 90.8 97.0 97.6 83.6 82.6 84.3 84.8 79.3 76.7 80 60 40 20 15.7 15.2 17.4 20.7 23.3 16.4 0 Al Fe Zn Ni Cu Pb Bauxite Crude Steel Source: BGR database

  10. EU Import Dependency of Metallic Raw Materials in 2005 EU Metals Industry in 2005: World Ranking Aluminium Copper Zinc Lead Nickel Mining ---- 5 4 5 ---- Refining 3 2 2 2 5 1st Stage processing n.a. 1 1 1 2 Source: Euromines

  11. Scenario: Projected World Steel Comsumption Average growth rates 1970 – 2005 (3,7 %): 1 400 India 5.9 % 9.0 % PR China 1 200 -1.0 % USSR / Russian Federation 0.9 % OECD and Eastern Europe 1 000 800 crude steel consumption mill.t 600 400 200 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Source: BGR database

  12. exports in mill. t 11 Flows of Seaborne Iron Ore Trade In 1960: 121 mill. t 1 20 15 17 3 5 7 9 5 1 19 6 5 5 5 Sources: ThyssenKrupp Steel, BGS

  13. exports in mill. t 11 Flows of Seaborne Iron Ore Trade In 2001: 441 mill. t 2 14 17 35 10 7 4 155 166 24 6 1 Sources: ThyssenKrupp Steel, BGS

  14. exports in mill. t 11 Flows of Seaborne Iron Ore Trade In 2006: 725 mill. t Three companies are controlling71 % of the seaborne iron ore trade: BHP Billiton, CVRD, Rio Tinto 2 18.5 21.5 95 11 8.5 6.2 255 270 30 8 1 Sources: ThyssenKrupp Steel, Eurostat

  15. Iron Ore: European Production and Imports in 2005 Imports:146 200 000 t RoW: 23 Countries RSA 10.7 4.9 Russia 6.3 Production:27 032 950 t Sweden:23 256 000 t Brazil Mauritania 7.0 47.8 7.3 Canada Rest of Europe 7.3 2.1  % 8.7 Ukraine Australia Sweden Sources: Eurostat, BGR database

  16. Availability of Mineral Raw Materials supply and demand increasing demand • bigger reserves • higher lifetimes • no shortages rising prices • higher recycling rates • more substitution • miniaturisation • - human creativity • new technical methods • higher research efforts • new deposits/types • low-grade deposits are becoming economic • - new raw material sources • - human creativity • higher exploration efforts • engaging in higher exploration risks

  17. Worldwide Exploration Budgets (NF Metals) vs CRB Metals Sub-Index 8 800 7 700 6 600 5 500 CRB Metals Sub-Index US$ billion 4 400 3 300 2 200 1 100 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Sources: Metals Economics Group, Reuters

  18. If Monsieur Eiffel built his tower today… he would need just 30 % of the steel … 7 000 t 2 100 t 7 000 t

  19. Geological Aspects of the Availability ofMetallic Raw Materials • In the foreseeable future there will be no limitation to the availability of metallic raw materials. Their availability is a question of costs and of market access. • Metallic raw materials are unevenly distributed in the world. • The occurrences of metallic raw materials are depending on the geology. • Commodity markets are global markets. • We can secure the availability of metallic raw materials in the long term by: domestic production, technical development, substitution, efficient use, recycling, and promotion of free and fair trading conditions on the world markets.

  20. Exploration of new mineral deposits, Technological development: Recycling, substitution, material efficiency Promoting free and fair trading conditions Sources: BASF, Pics Boatnerd, BGR

  21. Europeneeds open and transparent markets ! The European Market Situation - Mineral raw materials are unequally distributed in the world - Commodity markets are global markets - Europe is customer throughoutthe world

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