APPLICATIONS OF STATEWIDE TRAVEL FORECASTING MODEL

1. APPLICATIONS OF STATEWIDE TRAVEL FORECASTING MODEL Eric Songer URS Corporation Michael Doherty URS Corporation James Fennessy Fennessy Associates

2. Presentation Outline Turnpike State Model Overview Validation Results Applications Heartland Forecast Grid Analysis Reverse Engineering Questions

3. Turnpike State Model GIS Database Built from scratch to ensure consistency among all components Simplified travel demand model structure with integrated land use model Two way GIS to TRANPLAN interface Landuse allocation interface capability Produces vehicle forecasts (AADT)

4. Model Network Built from GDT/ TeleAtlas network, FDOT RCI 2004 base network 500,000 arcs 124,500 links 2015 network Florida DOT work plan: 2,000 additional links Includes 11,800 FDOT RCI traffic count stations

5. Zone System Automatically generated from network Total of 29,395 zones 4,837 internal 37 external 23,086 for non-developable areas (e.g. lakes)

6. Model Validation Matrix-estimated trip lengths are very close to NHTS Florida distribution Model matches the 11,800 counts very closely, in part due to substantial network data cleaning effort

7. Summary and Conclusions FL TSM v.1.0 completed in 2006 Use of GIS database significantly facilitates model development and maintenance efforts Simplified initial travel demand modeling approach supports focus on critical data quality and maintenance issues Having reliable network data supports incremental enhancements of the travel demand models over time for toll forecasting analysis

8. Heartland Example Evaluated both East-West and North-South Corridors Automated alignment based on avoidance Smoothed to engineering curves Database updated Performed toll forecasting analysis Performed “reversed engineering” analysis

9. HeartlandAlignments

10. Heartland Analysis East – West 2 alternatives Not moving forward at this time North – South 2 alternatives Corridor identified for review North of SR 60

11. Heartland Project – Reverse Engineering Calculate Number of trips necessary to generate revenue necessary to bond toll facility Use Matrix Estimation to generate trip table necessary to satisfy the necessary volume Calculate additional needed socio-economic and employment per zone Use GIS to display population and employment change

12. TSM Application – Grid Analysis • 2035 Landuse projections • 2015 Network • GIS database available in 5 year increments

13. Nine NewCorridors

14. What is Grid Analysis • One Mile Grid • Entire State • Cut-line analysis • Sum of Volume, Capacity • Calculates • V/C • Lane by facility type

15. Grid Analysis • Shows where supply is not meeting demand • Pattern helps define corridors • V/C • Red > 1 • Orange > 0.85 • Green > 0.65 • Grey > .5

16. Grid Analysis Results2035 land use with 2015 network2035 V/C > .85

17. Grid Analysis & Corridors

18. Orange – Duval • AADT (millions) 35.2 • Capacity (millions) 50.5 • Volume / Capacity 0.70 • New Capacity (Lane miles) • Limited Access 9 • Primary Arterials 27 • Secondary Arterials 40 • Collectors 70 • Total 146

19. State V/CResults 20352035 land use with 2015 network

20. Summary and Conclusions TSM has complemented other tools available to Florida’s Turnpike Enterprise for toll forecasting analysis applications Future enhancements include: Toll mode choice model Truck volume forecasting Continuing TSM database maintenance and update

21. Questions?