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Fall Member Summit 2012

Fall Member Summit 2012. Healthcare Uncertainty An Election Year Preview. Rich McKeown , JD President and CEO, Leavitt Partners. Month Day, Year. The Compounding of Compassion…. 226 Safe. 26. SS Insurance Unemployment AFDC. CHIP TANF. Medicare Medicaid. Medicare (Part D). SSI.

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Fall Member Summit 2012

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  1. Fall Member Summit2012

  2. Healthcare UncertaintyAn Election Year Preview Rich McKeown, JD President and CEO, Leavitt Partners Month Day, Year

  3. The Compounding of Compassion… 226 Safe 26 • SS Insurance • Unemployment • AFDC • CHIP • TANF • Medicare • Medicaid • Medicare (Part D) • SSI • PPACA 2006 Bush 1974 Nixon 1997 Clinton 1935 Roosevelt 1965 Johnson 2010 Obama

  4. …Meets Global Economic Dispassion • National Debt • Federal Deficit • Unemployment • Trade Deficit • Unfunded Liabilities • Medicare & Medicaid Growth • Health Insurance Premium Growth • Aging Population • Declining Confidence

  5. Snapshot of the States

  6. Current Gubernatorial Picture Republicans Democrats Independent (RI)

  7. Governor Toss-Up Races 30 Safe or Not Up 16 Safe or Not Up 3 Toss-Up Republicans Democrats Washington Inslee-D: 48% McKenna-R: 42% Democrat Montana Hill-R: 43% Bullock-D: 44% New Hampshire Lamontagne-R: 40% Hassan-D: 42% Democrat Democrat

  8. Current Polling Suggests… Republicans Democrats Independent (Maine)

  9. 3 Possible Outcomes….. Democrat Gridlock

  10. 3 Possible Outcomes….. Democrat Gridlock Republican Gridlock

  11. 3 Possible Outcomes….. Democrat Gridlock Republican Gridlock Republican Sweep

  12. A Snapshot of the Congress

  13. Current House Republicans Democrats

  14. House Toss-Up Races 183 Safe 226 Safe 26 Democrats Toss-Up Republicans 218 Seats Required to Win House Democrats Need35

  15. Current Senate Republicans Democrats

  16. Senate Toss-Up Races 43 Safe or Not Up 46 Safe or Not Up 11 Toss-Up Republicans Democrats Connecticut Murphy-D: 48.7% McMahon-R: 45.3% Democrat Montana Tester-D (Incumbent): 44.3% Rehberg-R: 46% Republican Massachusetts Warren-D: 46.5% Brown-R (Incumbent): 44.8% Indiana Donnelly-D: 40% Mourdock-R: 38% Arizona Flake-R: 44.3% Carmona-D: 42% Ohio Mendel-R: 43% Brown-D (Incumbent): 47.8% Virginia Allen-R: 44.3% Kaine-D: 49% Wisconsin Thompson-R: 44.4% Baldwin-D: 49.2% Republican Democrat Democrat Democrat Democrat Democrat Missouri McCaskill-D (Incumbent): 45.5% Akin-R: 40.0% Nevada Heller-R (Incumbent): 47.2% Berkley-D: 42.7% Democrat Republican North Dakota Berg-R: 47.7% Heitkamp-D: 47% Republican

  17. Current Polling Suggests… Republicans Democrats

  18. A Snapshot of the Race for the Presidency

  19. Why Barack Obama Can’t Win…. Unemployment over 7.2% September 2012: 7.8%

  20. Why Barack Obama Can’t Win…. Consumer Confidence Index below100 September 2012 : 70.3

  21. Why Barack Obama Can’t Win…. • Approval less than 50%by March March Job Approval: 49% September Job Approval: 49.7%

  22. Why Mitt Romney Can’tWin…. • More “likable”candidates win Obama Likability: 51% Romney Likability: 43%

  23. Why Mitt Romney Can’tWin…. • Intrade projectsan Obama win Probability of Obama Win: 62.2% Probability of Romney Win: 38%

  24. Why Mitt Romney Can’tWin…. • Stable markets favorthe incumbent

  25. But, External Forces Could Drive the Election

  26. Why Either Could Win • Greece Leaves the Euro • More Debt Relief Needed in Europe • Chinese Economy Decelerates • Oil Prices • Libya

  27. Right Track/Wrong Track

  28. 270

  29. Solid/Likely Democrat: 217 Electoral Votes 4 12 ` 3 10 11 29 7 4 20 7 14 3 10 20 55 5 HI 4

  30. Solid/Likely Republican: 181 Electoral Votes 3 3 4 3 3 5 11 5 6 6 8 11 7 9 11 6 16 9 6 AK 3 38 8

  31. Democrats Have the Advantage Republicans Democrats

  32. Toss-Up States Will Decide the Election

  33. Toss-Up States 4 10 20 6 18 6 13 9 10 15 Source: Charlie Cook 29 140 Toss-Up Votes

  34. Florida (29 Electoral Votes) Current Polling RCP Rasmussen 46.8% 47% 49.3%51%

  35. Pennsylvania (20 Electoral Votes) Current Polling RCP Rasmussen 48.5% 51% 43.7%46%

  36. Ohio (18 Electoral Votes) Current Polling RCP Rasmussen 48.3% 48% 46.1% 47%

  37. North Carolina (15 Electoral Votes) Current Polling RCP Rasmussen 45.3% 48% 50.0% 51%

  38. Virginia (13 Electoral Votes) Current Polling RCP Rasmussen 48.4% 47% 47.6% 49%

  39. Wisconsin (10 Electoral Votes) Current Polling RCP Rasmussen 50% 51% 47.7% 49%

  40. Missouri (10 Electoral Votes) Current Polling RCP Rasmussen 43.8% 46% 49% 49%

  41. Colorado (9 Electoral Votes) Current Polling RCP Rasmussen 47.4% 49% 48.0% 48%

  42. Nevada (6 Electoral Votes) Current Polling RCP Rasmussen 48.2% 47% 46.6% 45%

  43. Iowa (6 Electoral Votes) Current Polling RCP Rasmussen 48.5% 49% 45.8% 47%

  44. New Hampshire (4 Electoral Votes) Current Polling RCP Rasmussen 48.0% 48% 47.3% 48%

  45. According to Real Clear Today… Republicans Democrats

  46. According to Rasmussen Today… Republicans Democrats 4 New Hampshire (4)

  47. If Romney wins Ohio & NH…… Republicans Democrats

  48. If Romney wins Ohio & NH…… Republicans Democrats If Romney wins Wisconsin, NH & CO (or NV/IA)… Republicans Democrats

  49. If Romney wins Ohio & NH…… Republicans Democrats If Romney wins Wisconsin, NH & CO (or NV/IA)… Republicans Democrats If Romney wins CO, NV, IA & NH… Republicans Democrats

  50. The Race is Tightening

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