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Willy Sabry Alcatel-Lucent Indonesia +62 815 830 1036 Willy.sabry@alcatel-lucent

Broadband Wireless Access Indonesia Peluang dan Tantangan. Willy Sabry Alcatel-Lucent Indonesia +62 815 830 1036 Willy.sabry@alcatel-lucent.com September 2, 2010. Agenda. Broadband in Indonesia Technology choice and network economy Summary. 1. Broadband In Indonesia.

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Willy Sabry Alcatel-Lucent Indonesia +62 815 830 1036 Willy.sabry@alcatel-lucent

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  1. Broadband Wireless Access Indonesia Peluang dan Tantangan Willy Sabry Alcatel-Lucent Indonesia +62 815 830 1036 Willy.sabry@alcatel-lucent.com September 2, 2010

  2. Agenda • Broadband in Indonesia • Technology choice and network economy • Summary

  3. 1. Broadband In Indonesia

  4. DGPT Study Group 4G Mastel RPJMN (2014) Objectives 1. Increase penetration 2. Affordability 3. Drive National Industry 4. Optimum spectrum value ICT for prosperity and welfare • Increase penetration • Affordability & quality service • Effective public services • Reduce social inequality • Internet penetration: 50% • Broadband: 30% • Digital TV program: 35% • Backbone main islands: 100% • Broadband for cities / regency capital: 75% BROADBAND Users expectation: Coverage, Services/Quality, Affordability Why Broadband: National Infrastructure, knowledge based society, 1.3% PDB increase for every 10% broadband penetration increase, National Competitiveness index

  5. Broadband in Indonesia Today • Land Area: 1.9m km2, 17,508 islands • 240 millionPopulation • 33 provinces, 500 cities / regency capital • 6000 municipal • 70000 villages • 62 million household Broadband Services today: • In Dense urban / Urban area, ~ 30 cities. • Penetration: 1% WBB, 0.7% FBB, 4% PC (household basis), 68% Mobile phone • HSPA, EVDO, WiMAX, DSL, PON, HFC • Best effort Source: Pyramid, ALU

  6. Broadband in Indonesia Expectation & Challenges Broadband for All Expectation: • Coverage (30%-40% area) • Services/ Quality (voice-data-multimedia / best effort - QoE guaranteed - ubiquitous) • Affordability (most competitive in the region) Challenges: • Technology / solution mix: access/backbone, wireline / wireless, FO / radio • Economic: PNBP vs PDB increase / National infrastructure / ICT fund • Regulation / Industry Structure

  7. Extreme Rural Rural Dense Urban Urban Suburban Wireless technologies at low frequency bands (eg LTE, HSPA, EVDO) Satellite Wireline (eg FTTx, DSL, GPON) and Wireless (LTE, HSPA, EVDO, WIMAX) Coverage… with the right technology mix being a combination of fixed & wireless Note: Sample cost model Australia Rural area more suitable with Wireless Wireline complements Wireless in Urban Areas transport network – FO backbone, combination FO/MW backhaul

  8. DSL CO + LTE/WiMAX/FTTN Wireless only Wireless + Satellite Fibre + FTTN Coverage… although mobile is the preferred broadband technology in emerging markets, it will eventually need to be completed with fixed technologies Broadband Bandwidth per user (Mbps) DVB SD TV HD TV Density (users/sqkm) • Mobile Broadband is a quick and easy approach to address broadband demand – but limited to maximum throughput • Fixed technologies scale better for high density areas and greater bandwidth demand • Optimum solution is a combination of multiple technologies

  9. Highways Metros Metropolitan Security Buses High-Voltagepôles Utilities Data Acquisition & control Oil & Gaz (Dwelling) Ports (Container tracking) Public Services Residential Services Service / Quality Broadband for socio economic development Business Services Symmetrical, Business Critical / SLG Asymmetrical Symmetrical, Business Critical / SLG, Ubiquitous High-speed Internet Video conference / telephony over IP IPTV (Interactive TV, 3D TV, Web TV) Home surveillance, Home automation Fixed-mobile convergence Social Networking High-Speed Internet VPN, Web services Unified communications Collaboration tools Mobility and teleworking Campus and building surveillance Hospitality Utility metering Cloud computing Information Public safety Closed-circuit TV Emergency e-learning e-healthcare e-social care e-administration One-stop-administration portal

  10. 100% Retail, Service Private Retail, service applications, applications Sector Retail, Network Service Optional : Network & applications, IP Wholesale IP Wholesale Investment (%) Network, Optional : Dark Dark fiber roll - infra resources fiber roll - out out and renting Gov ’ t / Public Labeling / Pre - Labeling / Pre - cabling cabling Sector Access to public Access to public Build of Primary infrastructure infrastructure infra Area Market Driven Risk Driven Policy Driven e.g. Tier 1 cities e.g. Tier 2 & suburban e.g. rural types AffordabilityDevelopment synergy BSO  ICT fund  NBN ??? Halaman 10

  11. AffordabilityInfrastructure /Network Sharing, Services Competition End-user Retail Services(residential, public & business) Active Network (network equipments, business & operation support) Passive Infrastructure (tower, sites, trenches, ducts, fibre) Services competition Infrastructure / Network sharing Halaman 11

  12. 2. Technology choice and network economy

  13. End-to-end Broadband Wireless Access Next-gen Wireless Broadband – Exploit QoE for effective Services Radio Access Network • 2/3/G, LTE (Large & Small Cell), WiMAX, Satellite • FTTx, MetroE Access Evolved Packet Core • S-GW, P-GW • MME, PCRF access Backhaul / aggregation Core / Edge Backbone transport SDE OSS/BSS Subs.Data Mgmt MME PCRF SGW PGW BTS 2G+3G+LTE IP/MPLS 2G/3G Core (Circuit & Packet) SDP: IMS, Mobile TV optics Transport • Aggregation / Backhaul • Backbone Service Delivery Environment • IMS, SDP, OSS/BSS, payment and security

  14. 700 MHz 900 MHz 1.9/2.1 GHz 2.6 GHz 2.3 GHz 2.1 GHz 850 MHz Broadband Wireless Accesstechnology is converging toward LTE A common evolution path… …highly efficient technologies L T E Flat IP OFDM MIMO GSM/UMTS HSPA+ GSM/EDGE UMTS/HSPA+ GSM/EDGE Robust modulation Flat, scalable Increased link capacity TD-SCDMA 1xRTT 1x/Do-R.A 3G “3.9G” 4G 1x/Do-R.A B/A+ WIMAX Operating bandwidth options TDD / FDD LTE bandwidth options, highly Spectrum efficient QoE guaranteed - Multiservices Eco-system – NGMN, LSTI

  15. Impact of signal strength and concurrent users to throughput …performance by throughput per subscriber instead of peak BW per BS – network design & dimensioning is critical Halaman 15

  16. Relative CAPEX and typical cell radius to cover a certain area in suburban environment as a function of the frequency band used for deployment 12 1500% 1400% 10 1230% 1300% 10 8.9 1200% 1100% 8 1000% 900% Relative Capex (%) 800% 5.5 Cell Radius (km) 675% 6 4.7 700% 3.9 600% 455% 4 500% 2.9 328% 400% 300% 2 126% 200% 100% 100% 0 0% 700 MHz 850 MHz 1900 MHz 2500 MHz 3500 MHz 5800 MHz Frequency Deployment Impact of standards & frequency on network economy 2500 Mhz band require 4.5 X higher capex than 700 MHz band Typical Cell Ranges for LTE show a significant advantage of using lower frequencies Better indoor penetration 2.6 GHz 800 MHz Source: Business case summary for NGMN - Milan Sallaba

  17. $140 $200 $150 $220 $220 $105 $150 $124 $183 $138 $344 Wireless device reality for 2009-2014LTE device overall price trend LTE/HSPA/GSM Multi mode LTE Single Mode Device Categories Targeted Timeline - June2011 - Handsets Targeted Timeline - March2011 - CPEs Targeted Timeline - March2011 - USB Sticks / Modems PCI Express (Embedded modules) Targeted Timeline - March2011 - Estimated Price Range 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 Initial Trends as of February 2010 Price decrease for entry range products expected in 2011 due to economic of scale

  18. 3. Summary

  19. Broadband for All Broadband for prosperityand welfare Coverage a holistic Network and Economic Analysis would be necessary Service / Quality Affordability

  20. Broadband Wireless AccessRight choice of BWA technology would benefit Indonesia Technology Convergence (OFDM, MIMO, IP, DPI) Multiservices QoE guaranteed per subscriber Economic of scale BWA Indonesia Ecosystem (e.g.: LSTI, NGMN, ng-Connect, Deep) Flexibility (channel BW, operating band) RAN sharing

  21. www.alcatel-lucent.com

  22. Pemakaian frequensi TV Broadcast di Indonesia

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