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Was Gore hurt by the Clinton legacy in 2000?

Was Gore hurt by the Clinton legacy in 2000?. Group IV Ambreen Amjad Jessica Brodkin Clay Martin Kevin Nazemi. Basic Logic. Counterfacual analysis Develop a baseline model of Gore’s performance Decide unit of analysis individual state Find measure of Gore’s performance votes affect.

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Was Gore hurt by the Clinton legacy in 2000?

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  1. Was Gore hurt by the Clinton legacy in 2000? Group IVAmbreen AmjadJessica BrodkinClay MartinKevin Nazemi

  2. Basic Logic • Counterfacual analysis • Develop a baseline model of Gore’s performance • Decide unit of analysis • individual • state • Find measure of Gore’s performance • votes • affect

  3. Clinton’s Effect on Economy Clinton’s Effect on Moral Climate Clinton’s Thermometer 2000 Gore’s Thermometer 2000 Gore’s Votes 2000 Party Affiliation What the group did • Unit of analysis: individual • American national election study provides buckets o’ data • Model combines affect and votes

  4. Feelings about Gore Feelings about Clinton Logic of counterfacual analysis Prof. of voting for Gore Feelings about Gore

  5. Bivariate relationships

  6. Clinton’s Effect on Economy 2 10.6 (3.8)(.623) .013 Clinton’s Effect on Moral Climate Clinton’s Thermometer 2000 9.4 Gore’s Thermometer 2000 Gore’s Votes 2000 3 1 4.91 Party Affiliation 4 Path analysis Table 2. Results Table 2 results

  7. Bush’s Thermometer 2000 Comments My model: Clinton’s Effect on Economy Clinton’s Effect on Moral Climate Clinton’s Thermometer 2000 Gore’s Thermometer 2000 Gore’s Votes 2000 Party Affiliation

  8. The variables

  9. The regressions

  10. .41 .43 Bush’s Thermometer 2000 .36 The path diagram Party Affiliation 6.69 -3.10 -0.0084 -4.83 Clinton’s Thermometer 2000 Gore’s Thermometer 2000 Gore’s Votes 2000 Clinton’s Effect on Moral Climate -6.67 0.49 0.0085 -7.38 Clinton’s Effect on Economy

  11. Two counterfactuals • What if Clinton’s thermometer rating in 2000 = his thermometer rating in 1996? • 1996 = 59.3 / 2000 = 55.5 • Gore therm rises by .49 x (59.3-55.5) = 1.86 pts. • Gore vote rises by 1.86 x 0.0085 = 1.58% • Effect cut in half by including Bush therm. • What if effect on moral climate had improved by ½ point? • Clinton term rises by 6.67 x ½ = 3.34 pts. • Gore therm rises by 3.34 x .49 = 1.64 pts. • Gore vote rises by 1.64 x .0085 = 1.4%

  12. Throw everything into one regression

  13. A word about linear probability vs. logit

  14. Comparison of functional forms • Linear probability • gorevote = a + b*goretherm • Logit • gorevote = (1+e a + b*goretherm)-1

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