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Violence, Governance, Development

Violence, Governance, Development. Mo Ibrahim Foundation Governance for Development in Africa CCD Ghana/SOAS. CAUSE or CONSEQUENCE?. What we’ll (try to) cover. Analytical Links Trends Violence and Development I Violence and Development II. Trends, levels, classification.

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Violence, Governance, Development

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  1. Violence, Governance, Development Mo Ibrahim Foundation Governance for Development in Africa CCD Ghana/SOAS

  2. CAUSE or CONSEQUENCE?

  3. What we’ll (try to) cover • Analytical Links • Trends • Violence and Development I • Violence and Development II

  4. Trends, levels, classification

  5. Peace and Conflict, 2010, CIDCM

  6. Spagat, Restrepo and Vargas

  7. Source: Moser & McIlwaine, World Development, 2006

  8. Post-war violence problem • The El Salvador issue • South Africa, Ethiopia, Angola… • Loser’s peace (USA); victor’s peace (Spain); pacified peace (Liberia); divided peace (Afghanistan) • What are the determinants of variation in post-war violence?

  9. Violence and Development I

  10. Grievance • Growth (5 years before onset) • Repression (elections, press freedom, etc) • Inequality (Gini coefficient) • Ethnicity (ELF)

  11. Greed • Goodies (% of primary commodity exports in GDP) • Rascals (% of 15-24 year old males in population) • Education (number of years average schooling)

  12. How to overcome constraints on collective action • Direct, material rewards, now, to individuals • Coercion • Norms & ideology • Joint production (Kriger; Kalyvas) of violence by local and national, outside and inside communities – intimacy • Whatever’s easiest (economic or social endowments) but this will shape the form of conflict (Weinstein)

  13. Friendly Fire? • Regressing endogenous variables on endogenous variables • Failing to reflect anything in the last 25 years of economic theory or technique • Conclusions not justified by findings • Might be published in an IR journal but not in a 3rd rate economics journal.

  14. Violence and development II

  15. Post-conflict aid

  16. From Boyce and Forman (2011), “Financing Peace” – WDR input paper

  17. From Boyce and Forman (2011), “Financing Peace” – WDR input paper

  18. Aid volatility coefficient From Boyce and Forman (2011), “Financing Peace” – WDR input paper

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