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Violence, Governance, Development

This study examines the complex dynamics between violence, governance, and development in various African contexts, particularly through the lens of post-war scenarios. By exploring case studies from El Salvador, South Africa, Ethiopia, and Angola, it assesses the determinants of post-war violence, including grievance factors and socio-economic indicators. The analysis delves into strategies for overcoming constraints on collective action and discusses the role of both local and national players in shaping conflict outcomes. Ultimately, it seeks to provide insights into effective post-conflict aid and peace financing.

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Violence, Governance, Development

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  1. Violence, Governance, Development Mo Ibrahim Foundation Governance for Development in Africa CCD Ghana/SOAS

  2. CAUSE or CONSEQUENCE?

  3. What we’ll (try to) cover • Analytical Links • Trends • Violence and Development I • Violence and Development II

  4. Trends, levels, classification

  5. Peace and Conflict, 2010, CIDCM

  6. Spagat, Restrepo and Vargas

  7. Source: Moser & McIlwaine, World Development, 2006

  8. Post-war violence problem • The El Salvador issue • South Africa, Ethiopia, Angola… • Loser’s peace (USA); victor’s peace (Spain); pacified peace (Liberia); divided peace (Afghanistan) • What are the determinants of variation in post-war violence?

  9. Violence and Development I

  10. Grievance • Growth (5 years before onset) • Repression (elections, press freedom, etc) • Inequality (Gini coefficient) • Ethnicity (ELF)

  11. Greed • Goodies (% of primary commodity exports in GDP) • Rascals (% of 15-24 year old males in population) • Education (number of years average schooling)

  12. How to overcome constraints on collective action • Direct, material rewards, now, to individuals • Coercion • Norms & ideology • Joint production (Kriger; Kalyvas) of violence by local and national, outside and inside communities – intimacy • Whatever’s easiest (economic or social endowments) but this will shape the form of conflict (Weinstein)

  13. Friendly Fire? • Regressing endogenous variables on endogenous variables • Failing to reflect anything in the last 25 years of economic theory or technique • Conclusions not justified by findings • Might be published in an IR journal but not in a 3rd rate economics journal.

  14. Violence and development II

  15. Post-conflict aid

  16. From Boyce and Forman (2011), “Financing Peace” – WDR input paper

  17. From Boyce and Forman (2011), “Financing Peace” – WDR input paper

  18. Aid volatility coefficient From Boyce and Forman (2011), “Financing Peace” – WDR input paper

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