COPING WITH CLIMATE CHANGE

1. COPING WITH CLIMATE CHANGE Clive Bowman Clim-ATIC project coordinator UHI Science DayPickaquoy Centre, Kirkwall, Friday 5th September 2008 A Project part-financed by the European Union and the European Regional Development Fund www.clim-atic.org

2. www.live-the-solution.com

3. Causes of climate change * * IPCC 2007 “It is very likely that greenhouse gas forcing has been the dominant cause of the observed warming of globally averaged temperatures in the last 50 years”

4. Fossil fuels used in transport

5. Domestic activities

6. Industry and manufacturing

7. Land management

8. Scottish Green House Gas Emissions Public 2% Land use change and Forestry emissions 8% Waste 1% Energy 37% Residential 11% Agricultural 12% Business 12% Transport 17% Contribution of each sector to Scottish GHG Emissions of GHGs in 2003 Scotland Rural Development Programme 2007 - 2013: Strategic Environmental Assessment - Environmental Report

9. Its already happening! And its going to get worse! “Climate change is evident in Scotland from observed trends in temperature, rainfall and snow cover.”“Much of the change in climate over the next 30 to 40 years is already determined by past and present emissions, so it is important that Scotland prepares itself for the inevitable impacts.” SEPA’s State of the Environment Report 2006

10. average spring, summer and winter temperatures have risen by more than 1°C since 1961 Change in mean temperature (°C) based on a linear trend, 1961–2004 SEPA’s State of the Environment Report 2006

11. Difference from average with respect to 1961-90 Difference from average with respect to 1971-2000 Source: Met Office Hadley Centre and UEA Climatic Research Unit 2007

12. Some parts of north-west Scotland have become up to 45% drier in summer Scotland has become much wetter since 1961 with: • an increase in average winter precipitation of almost 60% in the north and west; • an increase in average annual precipitation of 20% for the whole country. Change in precipitation (%) based on a linear trend, 1961–2004C5 SEPA’s State of the Environment Report 2006

13. high winter flow frequencies on western source rivers have increased over the past two decades Changes in winter river flows at selected locations SEPA’s State of the Environment Report 2006

16. Summary characteristics of the 4 IPCC storylines A2 B2 B1

17. CO2 EMISSION PROFILES under IPCC scenarios The IS92a scenario used by the IPCC is the business as usual scenario

18. Global mean annual temperature changes relative to 1980 – 1999 (ºC) for IPCC scenarios 5.2 5.8

19. www.live-the-solution.com

20. Vegetation of the Arctic: current conditions and projected changes under the IS92a scenario for 2090-2100

21. Table of climate change impacts for Scotland taken from SEPA’s State of the Environment Report 2006

22. www.live-the-solution.com

23. Communities are on the front line! How can they adapt?

24. The Clim-ATIC project 2.35 Million Euro Understanding climate change adaptation at a community levelfor northern regions European Regional Development Fund’s Northern Periphery Programme 2007 - 2013. www.clim-atic.org A Project part-financed by the European Union and the European Regional Development Fund

26. 5 participating regions in Clim-ATIC Uummannaq Rovaniemi, Kittilä and Kolari, Lapland Illulissat Iceland County of Vasterbotten, and Åre Sisimiut Flora, Sogn og Fjordane Faroe Islands Glen Urquhart and the Cairngorms National Park

27. Adaptation to Climate change impacts anticipatory or reactive? The earlier we start adapting, the better equipped we will be to cope with higher temperatures, increased rainfall and the other potential changes. Adapting to climate change is a process. It needs to be built in to our normal planning and risk management processes, whether in business, government or community. Having the ability to adapt is called ‘adaptive capacity’ and this is increased through: • knowledge • experience • resources

28. Socio-economic development Changes in natural systems Climate Change Impacts Advantages Disadvantages Adaptive capacity Mitigation Adaptation Opportunities Threats Decision making Diagram adapted from Finland’s National Adaptation Strategy (2005)

29. Build community capacity through knowledge with communities

30. Knowledge sources climate models and data + socio-economic data + local knowledge Current climate Current society Future climate change scenarios Future social change scenarios Community Vulnerability Scenarios

31. Knowledge communication and use Climate change impact visualisations Community adaptation action plans Community / stakeholder brainstorming meetings

32. Building adaptation knowledge with communities 11 to 18 year olds in the Cairngorms National Park

33. Forest owners in Sweden

34. Tourism operators in Rovaniemi, Finland

35. Landowners and farmers in Glen Urquhart

36. Ski area businesses in Åre, Sweden

37. Building community capacity through experience

38. Adaptation demonstration projects Dog sledge adaptations in Greenland

39. Mapping the tourism products of Northern Finland

40. Fish waste to Bio-gas in Greenland

41. Climate change tourism and sustainable accommodation huts in Greenland

42. Risk and response management in Norway

43. Tourism destination management in Scotland

44. GIS-based flood hazard maps - Rovaniemi, Finland

45. River restoration river Enrick, Glen Urquhart

46. Trial of EV for community use

47. The Clim-ATIC project www.clim-atic.org A Project part-financed by the European Union and the European Regional Development Fund www.clim-atic.org