FOUR BASIC QUESTIONS MUST BE ANSWERED IN THE PLANNING PROCESS

1. FOUR BASIC QUESTIONS MUST BE ANSWERED IN THE PLANNING PROCESS WHAT CAPACTITIES TO INSTALL TO ENSURE AN APPROPRIATE LEVEL OF RELIABILITY? HOW TO PICK THE BEST COMBINATION AMONG THE DIFFERENT TECHNOLIGIES AT HAND NOW AND LATER ON? WHERE TO LOCATE THIS EQUIPMENT? WHEN IS THE PROPER TIME TO INCORPORATE THEM INTO THE SYSTEM? 1

2. SYSTEM PLANNERS FACE NUMEROUS COMPLEXITIES COORDINATION OF SYSTEM PLANNING CATEGORIES UNCERTAINTIES - DEMAND - TECHNOLOGY PERFORMANCE - FUEL AVAILABILITY AND COST - FINANCIAL CONDITIONS LONG TIME HORIZONS ENORMOUS NUMBER OF ALTERNATIVE LONG-TERM EXPANSION PATHWAYS 2

3. UTILITY DEVELOPMENT PHILOSOPHY SHOULD BE CLEARLY STATED ISOLATED VS. INTERCONNECTED OPERATIONS - EMERGENCY SUPPLY - INTERRUPTIBLE EXCHANGE - JOINT PLANNING - SHORT-TERM PURCHASES/SALES - ENTITLEMENT ARRANGEMENTS - JOINT OWNERSHIP EXTERNAL CONSIDERATIONS 3

4. MAJOR ISSUES MUST BE ADDRESSED IN DEVELOPING A LONG-RUN EXPANSION PLAN FOR THE GENERATING SYSTEM DEMAND TECHNOLOGY ECONOMIC RELIABILITY PRACTICAL CONSTRAINTS 4

5. THE DEMAND FORECAST IS CLEARLY ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT PARTS OF GENERATING SYSTEM ANALYSIS POWER (MW) ENERGY (MKWH) LOAD VARIATIONS OVER TIME RANDOMNESS OF LOAD ERRORS IN FUTURE ESTIMATED DEMAND 5

6. VARIOUS TECHNOLOGIES ARE CURRENTLY AVAILABLE AS CANDIDATES FOR EXPANSION OF GENERATING SYSTEMS NUCLEAR FOSSIL HYDROELECTRIC COMBUSTION TURBINES DIESEL ENGINES COMBINED CYCLE PUMPED STORAGE 6

7. THE PLANNER MUST ALSO CONSIDER POTENTIAL FUTURE OPTIONS STEAM (WOOD, SOLAR, GEOTHERMAL, ETC.) FUEL CELLS PHOTOVOLTAIC WIND TURBINES OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION TIDAL POWER STORAGE (BATTERY, COMPRESSED AIR) 7

8. A FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT OF ANY ECONOMIC EVALUATION IS THE TIME ELEMENT 30-45 YEARS FOR ANALYSIS TIME VALUE OF MONEY - INFLATION (DEFLATION) - REAL CHANGES OVER TIME SELECTION OF DESCOUNT RATE - NECESSARY FOR COMPARING ALTERNATIVES - RESULTS ARE CLEARLY SENSITIVE - SCARCITY OF CAPITAL 8

9. THE LEVEL OF ADEQUACY FOR MEETING DEMAND IS ANOTHER IMPORTANT ISSUE RANDOM BREAKDOWNS DEMAND VARIATION HYDROELECTRIC VARIATION SCHEDULED MAINTENANCE NUCLEAR REFUELING CHANGES IN NEW CAPACITY AVAILABILITY 9

10. THE NEED FOR MODELS Planners have to evaluate more alternative technologies and sizes of new generating units; Operating costs are sensitive to type, cost and availability of fuels Safety and pollution control equipment now represent a significant a significant portion of total capital and operating costs Longer construction periods Uncertain load growth Fluctuating and high interest rates Financing uncertainties 10

11. GENERATING CAPACITY EXPANSION PROGRAMS

12. GENERATING CAPACITY EXPANSION PROGRAMS Wien Automatic System Planning Package (WASP) Developed by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) It is the most frequently used and best proven program for electric capacity expansion analyses in the public domain The most up-to-date version is known as WASP-IV 12

13. GENERATING CAPACITY EXPANSION PROGRAMS Electric Generation Expansion Analysis System (EGEAS) Developed by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), USA EGEAS can be run in both the expansion optimization and the production simulation mode Considered one of the best capacity expansion program in the World 13

14. GENERATING CAPACITY EXPANSION PROGRAMS Optimized Generation Planning Program (OGP) Developed by the General Electric Company, with LOLP as a reliability criterion The most significant difference between OGP and WASP is in the methods used for finding the optimum expansion plan 14

15. GENERATING CAPACITY EXPANSION PROGRAMS National Investment Model (MNI) Developed by Electricity de France (EDF) The basic aim of the MNI is to help in the choice of thermal (conventional & nuclear) generating facilities investments and to draw a picture of the possible trend of the electricity mix of the national electric generating system in the future 15

16. GENERATING CAPACITY EXPANSION PROGRAMS Westinghouse Interactive Generating Planning (WIGPLAN) Developed by Westinghouse & consists of seven programs Generation database manager Historical load reduction Load model Automatic generation planning Reliability & maintenance scheduling Probabilistic production costing Economic sensitivity 16

17. GENERATING CAPACITY EXPANSION PROGRAMS Capacity Expansion & Reliability Evaluation System (CERES) Developed at Ohio State university, USA Scope Developed by Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA), USA It is a long range capacity planning analysis program, using minimal basic language It is operated interactively by the user 17

18. WASP-IV COPUTER PROGRAM

19. WASP STANDS FOR W � Wein (Wein stands for Vienna in Austrian language, the city of IAEA headquarter) A � Automatic S � System P � Planning 19

20. HISTORY OF WASP The Wien Automatic System Planning Package (WASP) was originally developed by the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) of the United States of America to meet the needs of the IAEA's Market Survey for Nuclear Power in Developing Countries conducted by the IAEA in 1972�1973 20

21. HISTORY OF WASP (CONT�D) Based on the experience gained in using the program, many improvements were made to the computer code by IAEA Staff, which led to the WASP-II version in 1976 21

22. HISTORY OF WASP (CONT�D) Later, the needs of the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America (ECLA) to study the interconnection of the electrical grids of the six Central American countries, where a large potential of hydroelectric resources is available, led to a joint ECLA/IAEA effort from 1978 to 1980 to develop the WASP-III version 22

23. HISTORY OF WASP (CONT�D) The WASP-III version was distributed to several Member States for use in electric expansion analysis In addition, other computer models were added to the IAEA's catalogue of planning methodologies to complement the WASP analysis Firstly, in 1981, the Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED) was developed in order to allow the determination of electricity demand, consistently with the overall requirements for final energy, and thus, to provide a more adequate forecast of electricity needs to be considered in the WASP study 23

24. HISTORY OF WASP (CONT�D) The modular structure of WASP-IV permits the user to monitor intermediate results, avoiding waste of large amounts of computer time due to input data errors. It operates under DOS environment and uses magnetic disc files to save information from iteration to iteration, thus avoiding repetition of calculations which have been previously done 24

25. NEW FEATURES AND ENHANCEMENTS INCORPORATED IN WASP-IV Option for introducing constraints on environmental emissions, fuel usage and energy generation: WASP-IV allows user to introduce limits on environmental emissions Representation of pumped storage plants: Such an option was available in WASP-II but was taken out in WASP-III to accommodate more flexibility for hydro plants representation 25

26. NEW FEATURES AND ENHANCEMENTS INCORPORATED IN WASP-IV (CONT�D) Fixed maintenance schedule: Due to some practical considerations the user may like to specify a certain schedule for annual maintenance of some of the plants in the system. WASP-IV allows for this option Expanded dimensions for handling up to 90 types of plants and larger number of configurations (up to 500 per year and up to 5000 for the study period) 26

27. DIMENSIONS OF THE WASP-IV COMPUTER PROGRAM 27

28. SUMMARY DESCRIPTION OF THE WASP-IV COMPUTER CODE The WASP-IV code permits finding the optimal expansion plan for a power generating system over a period of up to thirty years, within constraints given by the planner. The optimum is evaluated in terms of minimum discounted total costs 28

29. DESCRIPTION OF WASP-IV MODULES WASP-IV have 7 modules: 1. LOADSY 2. FIXSYS 3. VARSYS 4. CONGEN 5. MERSIM 6. DYNPRO 7. REPROBAT The numbering of the first three modules is symbolic, since they can be executed independently of each other in any order Modules 4, 5, and 6, however, must be executed in order, after execution of Modules 1, 2, and 3 There is also a seventh module, REPROBAT, which produces a summary report of the first six modules, in addition to its own results 29

30. DESCRIPTION OF WASP-IV MODULES (CONT�D) Module 1, LOADSY (Load System Description), processes information describing period peak loads and load duration curves for the power system over the study period 30

31. DESCRIPTION OF WASP-IV MODULES (CONT�D) Module 2, FIXSYS (Fixed System Description), processes information describing the existing generation system and any pre-determined additions or retirements, as well as information on any constraints imposed by the user on environmental emissions, fuel availability or electricity generation by some plants 31

32. DESCRIPTION OF WASP-IV MODULES (CONT�D) Module 3, VARSYS (Variable System Description), processes information describing the various generating plants which are to be considered as candidates for expanding the generation system 32

33. DESCRIPTION OF WASP-IV MODULES (CONT�D) Module 4, CONGEN (Configuration Generator), calculates all possible year-to-year combinations of expansion candidate additions which satisfy certain input constraints and which in combination with the fixed system can satisfy the loads. CONGEN also calculates the basic economic loading order of the combined list of FIXSYS and VARSYS plants 33

34. DESCRIPTION OF WASP-IV MODULES (CONT�D) Module 5, MERSIM (Merge and Simulate), considers all configurations put forward by CONGEN and uses probabilistic simulation of system operation to calculate the associated production costs, energy not served and system reliability for each configuration. In the process, any limitations imposed on some groups of plants for their environmental emissions, fuel availability or electricity generation are also taken into account. 34

35. DESCRIPTION OF WASP-IV MODULES (CONT�D) The dispatching of plants is determined in such a way that plant availability, maintenance requirement, spinning reserve requirements and all the group limitations are satisfied with minimum cost MERSIM can also be used to simulate the system operation for the best solution provided by the current DYNPRO run and in this mode of operation is called REMERSIM. In this mode of operation detailed results of the simulation are also stored on a file that can be used for graphical representation of the results 35

36. DESCRIPTION OF WASP-IV MODULES (CONT�D) Module 6, DYNPRO (Dynamic Programming Optimization), determines the optimum expansion plan based on previously derived operating costs along with input information on capital costs, energy not served cost and economic parameters and reliability criteria 36

37. DESCRIPTION OF WASP-IV MODULES (CONT�D) Module 7, REPROBAT (Report Writer of WASP in a Batched Environment), writes a report summarizing the total or partial results for the optimum or near optimum power system expansion plan and for fixed expansion schedules. Some results of the calculations performed by REPROBAT are also stored on the file that can be used for graphical representation of the WASP results (see REMERSIM above) 37