1 / 10

The Shape of China’s Future Growth

The Shape of China’s Future Growth. KC Kwok 8 September, 2008. Many of the success factors have/about to run their course. Low cost, export-led growth Investment-led growth Emphasis on manufacturing Catching up with technology Quantitative expansion, crude growth Growth comes first

sileas
Télécharger la présentation

The Shape of China’s Future Growth

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. The Shape of China’s Future Growth KC Kwok 8 September, 2008

  2. Many of the success factors have/about to run their course • Low cost, export-led growth • Investment-led growth • Emphasis on manufacturing • Catching up with technology • Quantitative expansion, crude growth • Growth comes first • The capacity of the world to accommodate China’s growth

  3. Unbalanced economy • Increasing disparity between • urban and rural • the east and the west • haves & have-nots • Investment driven growth • Dominance of public sector • Environmental degradation • Increasing trade surplus and foreign reserves

  4. From “Fast & good quality” Low cost as competitive edge Emphasis on manufacturing Attracting in Economic growth comes first To “Good quality & fast” Raise innovative capability Improve economic structure (develop services industries) Going out Harmonious society; improve citizens’ livelihood; enhance administrative capabilities Changing the mode of economic development

  5. Key ongoing reforms • Further administrative reform • Fiscal and taxation reform • Financial market reform • SOE reform & facilitating non-state sector development • Development of factor markets • Build up social security system • Incentive system for environmental improvements

  6. Financial market reform & development • Financial market reform & development lagging behind rest of the economy - costs and risks • Benefits of financial market development • Role of Hong Kong • Relationship between HK & Shanghai • Other financial centres

  7. Need to grow the private sector • Public sector still getting a disproportionate share of China’s growth • SOE dominance in many sectors • rising share of government revenue in GDP • rises in asset value accrue largely to public sector • The development of private sector helps to • improve efficiency • increase private investment • increase consumption of services

  8. Regional development • Yangtze River Delta • Pearl River Delta (Pan PRD) • Bohai region • Revitalizing the Northeast • Developing the West • Rise of the middle • Taiwan Strait economic region • Other sub-regions

  9. Medium-term growth drivers • Demand side drivers • Quantitative and qualitative improvements in consumption • Urbanization • Investment in infrastructure and industrial upgrading • Supply side drivers • Further liberalization of economy • Economic re-structuring • Further reform of government

  10. Guangdong-HK economic integration • complementary economic relationship under“one country, two systems” • momentum for further cooperation • GD’s economy is at a turning point • GD is HK’s market, hinterland & possibly conduit for the rest of China • HK is Guangdong’s international contact • HK’s services capabilities could help GD to restructure its economy • HK’s public services are something GD could learn from

More Related