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Energy in the Developing World

Energy in the Developing World. Physics of Sustainable Energy 2011 – UC Berkeley Ashok Gadgil Professor, Civil and Env. Engineering, UC Berkeley Director, EE Tech. Division, LBNL.

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Energy in the Developing World

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  1. Energy in the Developing World Physics of Sustainable Energy 2011 – UC Berkeley Ashok Gadgil Professor, Civil and Env. Engineering, UC Berkeley Director, EE Tech. Division, LBNL

  2. What do the poorer 5B people care for?Human Development Index (HDI)HDI is a quantitative measure of human wellbeing. It incorporates metrics for: 1. Economic wellbeing (prosperity) 2. Life expectancy, public heath, health care 3. Literacy and educationUN publishes HDI values for all countries. Range is 0 (min) to 1 (max)

  3. Surprise! There is an energy connection! HDI is very closely tied to consumption of modern energy

  4. 800M 1B 5B

  5. 800M 1B 5B

  6. Developing Countries are not Homogeneous Furthermore, even within a given developing country, the population (and their energy use) can be highly diverse. Wealthy Indians (and Chinese) live at standards comparable to average Europeans or AmericansPoorest segments of India live in dire poverty and want

  7. Power of induction and illustration Since time is short, I will limit to three examples, to illustrate some current work, and the feasibility of making an amazing impact

  8. Example 1 Energy Efficiency Standards and Labeling in ChinaA project of the China Energy Group at LBNLchina.lbl.gov Contacts: Nan Zhou, David Fridley, and Nina Zheng, all of LBNL

  9. U.S. Refrigerator Energy Use vs. Time

  10. 合作模式 Mode of Collaboration 中国政府 Chinese Government 美国政府 U.S. Government • 其他国家实验室 • Other National Labs • 大学 Universities • 非政府机构 NGOs • 国际组织 • International Organizations LBNL 中国合作伙伴 Chinese Counterparts 基金会 Foundations

  11. Why Standards in China?

  12. Prospects for additional growth are enormous as urbanization rises • 290 million new urban residents from 1990 to 2007 • 375 million new urban residents expected 2007 to 2025 • All to be provided with housing, energy, water, transportation, and other energy services Rural population Urban population

  13. Phases of LBNL’s standards & labeling (S&L) development work in China • Training and Implementation 1998-2003 • Training in DOE analysis toolkit (technical analysis, energy impact, economic impact, consumer impact) • Development of initial standards for major products • Transfer of Energy Star modeling techniques • Development of first set of labeled products • Expanding the Scope 2003-2007 • Introduction of mandatory energy information label • Development of “reach” (tiered) standards • Linkage of voluntary label to government procurement • International harmonization • Institutional Strengthening 2008- • Regional compliance check testing • Laboratory round-robin testing • New products for standards regulation

  14. S &L Programs in China • Min Energy Performance Stds • First implementation, 1989 • So far, morethan 30 products covered • Voluntary label (similar to the Energy Star) • First implementation, 1999 • So far, over 40 products covered • Mandatory label (similar to the EU labeling program) • First implementation, 2005 • 19 products covered, will be 21 by 2010

  15. Impacts Potential savings from post-2009 standards: Savings from existing standards: *Others include: rice cookers, microwaves, laser printers, fax, copiers, computer monitors, HID lighting, mini and large air compressors, desktop and laptop computers, double-capped fluorescent lamps, range hoods and vent fans, LED lamps, grid lighting and commercial AC 110 TWh savings from standards and labels by 2020, with cumulative 2000-2020 savings of 1188 TWh. CO2 emission reduction between Frozen and Continued Improvement Scenarios: 2020: 340 MT CO2 2030: 683 MT CO2

  16. Example 2 Fuel-Efficient Biomass Cook-stoves Stoves for Displaced Women in Darfur Contacts: Ashok Gadgil, LBNL; Andree Sosler, Darfur Stoves Project

  17. >2B people use a diversity of biomass fuels (wood, twigs, ag-waste, dung, charcoal) to cook a large diversity of foods in diverse ways Three-stone Fire February 2011 -- Gadgil

  18. Cooking is mostly on grossly inefficient and polluting stoves. February 2011 -- Gadgil

  19. Ramanathan and Carmichael, Nature 2008 Annual mean optical depth of BC aerosols (2004-2005) Black Carbon (soot) emissions over Asia biofuel cooking fossil fuels biomass burning No biofuel cooking fossil fuels biomass burning February 2011 -- Gadgil

  20. Bond et al, JGR 2004. Global inventory of black carbon emissions from combustion Black Carbon (soot) emissions from cooking Residential Biofuel Contribution to total Black Carbon Emissions February 2011 -- Gadgil

  21. User-Acceptance is key • Our smartest scientific efforts are worthless unless the users accept the “improved” stove! • Here is an overview of our Darfur work -- keeping the users at the center February 2011 -- Gadgil

  22. Plight of Darfur Women Refugees Women and girls routinely risk rape and mutilation when they must leave the camps for gathering fuelwood. Typical trip lasts 7 hours. Outside Kalma Campphoto by Ashok Gadgil Nov 2005 February 2011 -- Gadgil

  23. Side by side testing of stoves in Kalma camp, Darfur, 2005 February 2011 -- Gadgil

  24. Berkeley students testing stove-design Spring 2006 February 2011 -- Gadgil

  25. Summer 2006 Berkeley-Darfur stove redesigned for production in Darfur conditions “V5” Members of LBNL, UC Berkeley and EWB-SFP team behind the Berkeley-Darfur stove redesign February 2011 -- Gadgil

  26. 2008 Design (now “V14”) is now ready for limited mass production. Each stove would save $250 per year, and is more stable and simpler to build. Flat-kits, IKEA-style, can be punched out of sheet metal and assembled into stoves in Darfur. Each stove would double the disposable income of the refugee woman, saving $1250 over its 5-year life. ($250 X 5 =$1250) February 2011 -- Gadgil

  27. We qualified an Indian factory to make Ikea-style flat kits of our design. One stove kit costs $14. Can make 5000 flat kits per month on one production line We set up an MOU with Oxfam America to build stoves in Darfur from these flatkits (we provided all tools and training) February 2011 -- Gadgil

  28. Ongoing story -- but a great start In October 2009 built 1000 stoves! Output capacity of assembly shop, when fully staffed, is a stove every 5 minutes, or 2000 stoves per month single-shift! February 2011 -- Gadgil

  29. Testing for Efficiency and Emissions at LBNL February 2011 -- Gadgil

  30. It Cooks Quicker Test = Heat 2.5L water in Darfur pot to 100C, simmer for 15 min, end test February 2011 -- Gadgil

  31. It Uses Less Fuel Test = Heat 2.5L water in Darfur pot to 100C, simmer for 15 min, end test February 2011 -- Gadgil

  32. It Cooks Cleaner Test = Heat 2.5L water in Darfur pot to 100C, simmer for 15 min, end test February 2011 -- Gadgil

  33. Field Survey Results from 2010 2010 survey of 100 households shows that users reduced spending on fuelwood (in North Darfur camps) from ~33% of household budget to ~15% Per the survey data, each $25 stove puts $330/year in the pocket of the woman using the stove – worth $1600 over the stove-life of 5 years February 2011 -- Gadgil

  34. As of February 2011 So far, distributed 16,000 stoves Helping >100,000 women and their dependents Since each stove saves $1600, the stoves distributed so far are worth $25,600,000 to the recipients >10,000 additional stoves planned for 2011 www.darfurstoves.org February 2011 -- Gadgil

  35. Example 3 Super Efficient Appliance Deployment (SEAD)Announced by Sec. Steve Chu at Copenhagen in Dec. 2009Led by US DOE, with analysis and support from LBNL’s EETD and othersGoal: Global Market Transformation in favor of super-efficient appliances Contacts: AmolPhadke, LBNL; JayantSathaye, LBNL

  36. SEAD is a global market transformation initiative for super-efficient products

  37. SEAD increases the benefits of appliance EE programs through global coordination 1) “Raise the ceiling” by coordinating incentives for highly-efficient globally traded devices 2) “Raise the floor” by coordinating and accelerating standards schedules and engaging in relevant technical exchange 3) “Strengthen the foundations” by dialogue on test methods, certification data sharing, and technical support

  38. Why SEAD?Global electricity consumption expectedto double in 25 years Four appliance categories, each with major efficiency potential, constitute about two-fifths of residential consumption. TWh Source: LBNL, May 2010

  39. Growing Global Demand and Globalization of Production 500 MW Coal Plant (1 Rosenfeld) ~ 3 TWh/Year Five suppliersproduce ~60% of the global production Fifteen suppliers produce ~75% of global production of major appliances Five suppliers produce ~45% of Room AC production Source: LBNL, May 2010

  40. Why SEAD?Untapped energy savings potential from highly-efficient commercially-available devices CEE Tier 4 Dots show TVs that are more efficient than Energy Star 4.0 Source: Noah Horowitz, NRDC, May 2010

  41. Ceiling fans Major Indian interest (20% of household energy use – largest energy user after lighting)

  42. Source: Navigant & CLASP, 2011

  43. End of Slides

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