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Complex dynamics and adaptive fuzzy rule-based expectations economic simulations with GENEFER

Complex dynamics and adaptive fuzzy rule-based expectations economic simulations with GENEFER. Contents. What are adaptive fuzzy rule-based expectations? What is GENEFER? How does it work? (Example). Adaptive fuzzy rule-based expectations. What are adaptive fuzzy rule-based expectations?

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Complex dynamics and adaptive fuzzy rule-based expectations economic simulations with GENEFER

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  1. Complex dynamics and adaptive fuzzy rule-based expectations economic simulations with GENEFER

  2. Contents • What are adaptive fuzzy rule-based expectations? • What is GENEFER? • How does it work?(Example)

  3. Adaptive fuzzy rule-based expectations • What are adaptive fuzzy rule-based expectations? • What is GENEFER? • How does it work?(Example) • Why rule-based?humans form mental models in complex situations, simple rules • Why fuzzy?uncertainty about exact functioning of a market • Why adaptive? humans learn from experiences and update, drop, or form new rules

  4. Example • What are adaptive fuzzy rule-based expectations? • What is GENEFER? • How does it work?(Example) IF interest rate differential between the USA and Germany is mediumAND growth rate in the USA is significantly largerTHEN the € will continue its moderate decline against the US$ IF interest rate differential between the USA and Germany is medium AND growth rate in the USA is significantly larger THEN the € will continue its moderate decline against the US$

  5. large small 0,8 0,3  0,4% 0,9% 0,8% Fuzzy Terms • What are adaptive fuzzy rule-based expectations? • What is GENEFER? • How does it work?(Example) µ medium 1,0 iUSA- iGer

  6. IF... AND...THEN... IF... AND...THEN...  IF... AND...THEN... IF... AND...THEN... IF... AND...THEN... IF... AND...THEN... IF... AND...THEN... IF... AND...THEN... IF... AND...THEN... IF... AND...THEN...  Output IF... AND...THEN... IF... AND...THEN... IF... AND...THEN... IF... AND...THEN...  IF... AND...THEN... IF... AND...THEN... IF... AND...THEN... IF... AND...THEN... IF... AND...THEN... IF... AND...THEN... Fuzzy Rule–Base • What are adaptive fuzzy rule-based expectations? • What is GENEFER? • How does it work?(Example)

  7. (1) (3) Learning • What are adaptive fuzzy rule-based expectations? • What is GENEFER? • How does it work?(Example) • adapt fuzzy set widths and centers forget unused rules • search for new rules (2)

  8. GENEFER • What are adaptive fuzzy rule-based expectations? • What is GENEFER? • How does it work?(Example) • universal tool for designing, managing and analyzing fuzzy Rule–Bases • expectation generator for economic simulations via COM-Interface • forecast manager for empirical data

  9. www. .de • What are adaptive fuzzy rule-based expectations? • What is GENEFER? • How does it work?(Example)

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