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This workshop aims to estimate the future GP workforce needs until 2021 and propose interventions to tackle workforce challenges. Discussions include age profiles, training, attrition rates, and retirement intentions of GPs. The workshop will explore forecasts, potential solutions, assumptions, and options for additional training places and role substitutions to address workforce shortages.
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GP workforce predictions: through a glass darkly? AUDGPI, 27th February 2009 Dr. Conor Teljeur Prof. Tom O'Dowd Prof. Fergus O’Kelly Dr. Aisling Ní Shúilleabháin Dept. of Public Health & Primary Care, Trinity College Dublin
Aims of the workshop: • Estimate numbers of GPs needed to 2021 • To identify interventions that will address workforce issues
Agenda • What do we know? • What do we forecast? • How might we deal with the issues?
Training places Buttimer Report (2006), recommendation 47: "the HSE should implement the policy previously adopted by the Department of Health and Children to increase the annual intake of GP Trainees from the current 88 to 150 by 2008."
Attrition • Approximately 10% of trained GPs do not practice as GPs – that represents an investment of ~ €2.3m lost each year • Intention to retire early: • 13% intend to retire before 60 • 43% intend to retire before 65
Agenda • What do we know? • What do we forecast? • How might we deal with the issues?
Assumptions • No change in patient behaviour – that is, total demand will be in proportion to the age-sex distribution of the population • Demography of trainees to remain stable • Sessions and retirement age of GPs to remain stable
Agenda • What do we know? • What do we forecast? • How might we deal with the issues?
Other options • Increase role substitution - nurses • Clinical pharmacy - bigger role • Recognition of prior hospital experience • Recruitment from EU & Non EU countries • Anything else?...