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Study on the improvement from beta information in the Likelihood

Study on the improvement from beta information in the Likelihood. PRELIMINARY. Collaboration Meeting CERN, 6-10 Feb 2012. Agustín Sánchez Losa IFIC (CSIC – Universitat de València ). Outline. Correlation " α vs β " Likelihood PEX ( PseudoEXperiments ) First results To-Do List.

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Study on the improvement from beta information in the Likelihood

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  1. Study on the improvement from beta information in the Likelihood PRELIMINARY Collaboration Meeting CERN, 6-10 Feb 2012 Agustín Sánchez Losa IFIC (CSIC – Universitat de València)

  2. Outline Correlation "αvsβ" Likelihood PEX (PseudoEXperiments) First results To-Do List Agustín Sánchez Losa – CERN Collaboration Meeting

  3. Correlation "α vsβ” 0.0<β<0.1 1.4<β<1.5 Agustín Sánchez Losa – CERN Collaboration Meeting

  4. Correlation "α vsβ” MEAN(Log(α)) 0.0<β<0.1 1.4<β<1.5 Β slice Agustín Sánchez Losa – CERN Collaboration Meeting

  5. Likelihood PS Analysis β 1stAprox. Agustín Sánchez Losa – CERN Collaboration Meeting

  6. PEXSimulating signal and background events PS Analysis β 1stAprox. PS Analysis β 1stAprox. Agustín Sánchez Losa – CERN Collaboration Meeting

  7. Ingredients MC log(α) β Nhits log(α) log(α) β Nhits Nhits β DATA β Nhits Nhits Agustín Sánchez Losa – CERN Collaboration Meeting β

  8. Likelihood"PS Analysis" vs "β 1stAproximation" PS Analysis β 1stAprox. Agustín Sánchez Losa – CERN Collaboration Meeting

  9. Firstresults"PS Analysis" vs "β 1stAproximation" • Comparison under same conditions: • Fixed search • δ= 0° • Cut N52 • Same systematics (OFF for number of hits) • Same ingredients (PDFs) • Same statistics: • 10000 pex for background • 1000 pex for signal up to 20 Agustín Sánchez Losa – CERN Collaboration Meeting

  10. Firstresults"β 1st Aprox." fitted signal check Means • nsig 0: 0.14 • nsig 1: 0.98 • nsig 2: 1.95 • nsig 3: 2.96 • nsig 4: 3.96 • nsig 5: 4.95 • nsig 6: 5.92 • nsig 7: 6.92 • nsig 8: 7.89 • nsig 9: 8.90 • nsig 10: 9.90 FittedSignal Agustín Sánchez Losa – CERN Collaboration Meeting

  11. Firstresults"PS Analysis" Q statistic distribution PS Analysis 3σ Threshold • Q = 3.84 % eventsabove 3σ • nsig 0: 0.2 • nsig 1: 21.7 • nsig 2: 56.2 • nsig 3: 81.3 • nsig 4: 93.2 • nsig 5: 98.0 Q distribution Agustín Sánchez Losa – CERN Collaboration Meeting

  12. Firstresults "β 1st Aprox." Q statistic distribution β 1stAprox. 3σ Threshold • Q = 3.58 PS Analysis % eventsabove 3σ • nsig 0: 0.2 • nsig 1: 21.7 • nsig 2: 56.2 • nsig 3: 81.3 • nsig 4: 93.2 • nsig 5: 98.0 • nsig 0: 0.2 • nsig 1: 24.7 • nsig 2: 55.6 • nsig 3: 81.6 • nsig 4: 94.0 • nsig 5: 98.1 Q distribution Agustín Sánchez Losa – CERN Collaboration Meeting

  13. Firstresults "β 1st Aprox." Q statistic distribution PRELIMINARY β 1stAprox. PS Analysis β 1stAprox. 2σ Threshold 2σ Threshold • Q = 0.96 • Q = 1.20 % eventsabove 2σ % eventsabove 2σ • nsig 0: 4.2 • nsig 1: 59.3 • nsig 2: 86.6 • nsig 3: 96.1 • nsig 4: 99.1 • nsig 5: 99.8 • nsig 0: 4.1 • nsig 1: 51.4 • nsig 2: 83.9 • nsig 3: 95.9 • nsig 4: 98.9 • nsig 5: 99.8 Q distribution Agustín Sánchez Losa – CERN Collaboration Meeting

  14. LikelihoodNext implementations Agustín Sánchez Losa – CERN Collaboration Meeting

  15. To-Do List • Solve the problems with the PDFs • Make additional checks with higher statistics • Compute discovery power curves • …adapt it for a time dependent search Agustín Sánchez Losa – CERN Collaboration Meeting

  16. Thankyou foryourattention

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