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Alan F. Hamlet Marketa McGuire Elsner JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering Uni

The Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project: Overview of Study Design, Downscaling Approaches, and Selected Products . Alan F. Hamlet Marketa McGuire Elsner JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington.

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Alan F. Hamlet Marketa McGuire Elsner JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering Uni

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  1. The Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project: Overview of Study Design, Downscaling Approaches, and Selected Products • Alan F. Hamlet • Marketa McGuire Elsner • JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group • Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering • University of Washington

  2. Team Acknowledgements: Marketa McGuire Elsner Guillaume Mauger Rob Norheim Eric Salathé Pablo Carrasco Jeff Deems Ingrid Tohver Se-Yeun Lee

  3. Study Partnerships Funding Partners: WA Department of Ecology (via HB 2860) Bonneville Power Administration Northwest Power and Conservation Council Oregon Water Resources Department BC Ministry of the Environment Collaborative Partners: Montana Department of Natural Resources Idaho Department of Water Resources USBR, Boise Regional Office USACE, Seattle and Portland Districts

  4. Study Objectives: Provide comprehensive hydrologic data bases to support water planning at a range of spatial and temporal scales in the Columbia River basin and PNW. Increase spatial resolution of hydrologic models to capture smaller basins relevant to planning. Conduct pilot studies using fine scale hydrologic simulation tools and compare to macro-scale tools that are currently being more widely implemented. Improve range of products and services available, and construct tools and data processing methods to make future updates easier (and less expensive) to produce.

  5. Overlap with the Washington State Climate Impacts Assessment (HB 1303)

  6. HumanHealth Infrastructure Water Resources Agriculture/Economics A comprehensive climate change impacts assessment for Washington State Coasts Energy Forest Resources Salmon Adaptation

  7. Downscaling Global Climate Change Scenarios for the PNW

  8. 21st Century Climate Impacts for the Pacific Northwest Region Mote, P.W. and E. P. Salathe Jr., 2009: Future climate in the Pacific Northwest (in review)

  9. Overview of Downscaling Approaches: • Delta Method • Realistic daily time series and spatial variability. • 91 years of variability associated with each time frame and emissions scenario. • Only incorporates changes in mean T and P. • Bias Corrected and Statistically Downscaled GCM Data (BCSD) • Incorporates more information from the GCMs, but as a result may also inherit undesirable aspects of GCMs as well. • Facilitates trend analysis, examination of potentially altered variability. • Hybrid Methods • Takes time series and spatial behavior from the observed record, but incorporates more detailed statistical changes from the GCMs.

  10. Typical Applications of Each Downscaling Approach: • Delta Method • Sensitivity studies • Summary of all GCM projections in one run (limited runs to identify the central tendency • Bias Corrected and Statistically Downscaled GCM Data (BCSD) • Trend Analysis of Hydrologic Variables • Ensemble uncertainty analysis for 30-year windows at any time in the 21st century (flexible time period of analysis) • Hybrid Methods • Ensemble analysis of water systems over 90 years of variability. • Flood and low flow analysis • Any application that needs very realistic time series behavior, spatial extent of storms, etc.

  11. Selected Runs for Two Emissions Scenarios (A1b, B1) [ Total of 76 Runs including Six Composite Delta Runs ]

  12. Overview of Selected Basin-wide Products

  13. Ratio of Peak SWE to Oct-Mar Precipitation

  14. Change in Long-Term Mean April 1 SWE

  15. Large-Scale Transformation of Watershed Characteristics

  16. Historical and Projected 21st Century Flows for the A1b Scenario Yakima River

  17. Future Projections of Flood Risk • Floods in warmer areas of the basin are expected to increase in magnitude due to the combined effects of warming and increasingly intense winter storms. • In other parts of the basin, changes in flooding are smaller, and in strongly snowmelt dominant basins reductions in flood risk are common due to loss of spring snow cover.

  18. Overview of Selected Site Specific Products

  19. Locations of 297 Streamflow Simulation Points

  20. Daily Streamflow Data (Hybrid Delta)

  21. Reservoir Model Inflows • Specific bias adjusted products to support the following reservoir simulation models will be produced under funding for this project: • GENESYS (VIC) • Snake River basin simulation models (VIC) • ColSim model for the Columbia Mainstem (VIC) • Additional simulation products supported by HB 1303: • USBR Riverware model for the Yakima basin (VIC) • Seattle, Everett and Tacoma water supply systems (DHSVM)

  22. Model Calibration

  23. Calibration Watersheds

  24. Task 2 - Calibrate VIC model and develop statistical bias correction procedures VIC Model Calibration Procedure • Calibrate model to simulated streamflow by changing soil parameters (uncertainty in subsurface processes) • Compare simulated and historical streamflow using summary statistics • e.g. R2, Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency, annual volume error • Use split sample calibration/validation approach • Utilize auto-calibration tool developed by U. of AZ

  25. Yakima River at Parker Net Monthly Mean Flow (units of 1000AF) Naturalized Flow Simulated Flow Summary Statistics R2: 0.88 N-S Efficiency: 0.71 Avg. Ann. Flow, Sim/Nat: 1.08 Long-term Monthly Mean (1980-2000)

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