ISRAEL Current challenges 19 July 2010 Haim Dror haim@humints.com

1. ISRAEL Current challenges19 July 2010Haim Drorhaim@humints.com

2. Israel “If Israel is lost, then we are lost, too” Whether we like it or not, our fate is inextricably linked…” José Maria Aznar, Spain's prime minister from 1996 to 2004 (June 2010)

3. Religious Background

5. Major Religions of the WorldIn 2025 s Islam will be the largest religion

6. Statistics & Information About Islam • Islam has 1.57 billion adherents, making up 23% of the world population • Only 20% of the Muslims are Arab • The Islam is being divided bitterly between ‘Sunni’ (87%) ‘Shia’ (13%) who doesn't accept each other… • 34,000 Americans have converted to Islam following the events of September 11 ( this is the highest rate reached in the U.S. since Islam arrived there)

7. Muslim Distribution Shia 13% , Sunni 87%

8. ‘Against all the odds’ Israel and the Muslim world

9. Strategic Background

10. Iranian ‘Shia’ & Syria based'Sunni' Proxies Syria Sunni majority Iran Nuclear development Leader of radical camp Support of Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas Hezbollah Hamas Iraq Shia Majority

11. 122mm // 20.4km (12.75m) Fajar 3 // 45km (28.1m) Fajar 5 // 72km (45m) Zilzal // 240km (150m) Hezbollah (Shia) & Hamas (Sunni…) UNIFIL Tibereas Haifa Tel-Aviv Jerusalem Be’er Sheva

12. Iran – Range of ‘Shia’ Missiles Range of Iranian Missiles

13. Iran (Shia) Syria (Sunni) Smuggling Paths

14. Implications of a Nuclear Iran • Destabilization of moderate regimes • Long-range capabilities (EU) • Implications for energy security • Regional domino effect • Danger to US and international forces • Nuclear umbrella for Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas • Nexus between WMD and terror Political-Strategic Military-Strategic Terror Promotion Potential existential threat for Israel

15. Israel & Gaza Strip Political Background

16. The conflict started after WWI, when the Ottoman Empire (Turkey…) lost control of the Middle East and the British Mandate starts… The land was divided and European countries were given mandate, or control, of the region.

17. The Partition In 1947, the United Nations announced a plan to divide Palestine into an Arab and Jewish state. Jews agreed, but Arabs vowed to do anything needed to prevent the U.N. plan from being carried out.

18. Refugees600,000 Jews arrived 700,000 Arabs left

19. From 1947 till today

21. GAZA strip controlled by the HAMASIsrael disengagement in 2005

22. Hamas The Palestinian Arena Separate entities, divided by ideology and territory Palestinian Authority Internationally recognized Palestinian government Radical Islamic Ideology Iranian proxy Growing attention to security issues Rejects the international community’s terms Increased Israel/PA cooperation Force building Improved economic conditions Security threat

23. Gaza Blockade Operation Cast Lead Increased deterrence Hamas Coup State of Calm PA Elections Shalit Kidnapped Unilateral Disengagement 2010 2009 2006 2005 2007 2008 Rockets and Mortars Refusal of International Community Conditions: Jan.-Jun. 2010 56 Rockets 33 Mortar Shells • Cessation of hostile terrorist activity against Israel • Recognition of agreements between Israel and the PA • Recognition of the State of Israel’s right to exist

24. Eight Years of Rockets Since 2001, over 8,000 rockets and mortars have landed within Israel

25. Ashdod Gedara Ashkelon Qiryat Gat Sderot Netivot Ofakim Mortar // 6km (3.7m) Qassam // 16km (10m) Grad + Qassam // 20km (12.4m) 40km (25m) Beer Sheva Over 1,000,000 Israelis under range of rockets from Gaza

26. Who are the Hamas ?

27. Hamas Background • Arabic acronym for “The Islamic Resistance Movement” • Terror organization grew out of the Muslim Brotherhood / Egypt, created in 1987 • Muslim brotherhood is Sunni , calls for ‘one single Muslim nation for all Muslims around the world’ • Headquarters in Gaza City

28. HAMAS CHARTER (Now in charge of the Gaza Strip) "Israel will exist and will continue to exist until Islam will obliterate it, just as it obliterated others before it." "The Islamic Resistance Movement believes that the land of Palestine is an Islamic Waqf consecrated for future Moslem generations until Judgement Day. It, or any part of it, should not be squandered: it, or any part of it, should not be given up. " "There is no solution for the Palestinian question except through Jihad. Initiatives, proposals and international conferences are all a waste of time and vain endeavors." "After Palestine, the Zionists aspire to expand from the Nile to the Euphrates. When they will have digested the region they overtook, they will aspire to further expansion, and so on. Their plan is embodied in the "Protocols of the Elders of Zion", and their present conduct is the best proof of what we are saying."

29. Hamas is believed to have killed more than 500people in more than 350 separate terrorist attacks since 1993 Most of the killings were done by suicide bombers Also use mortars, short-range rockets, and small arms fire HAMAS Attacks mainly against civilian

30. Rocket launcher in Shati refugee camp • Launcher positioned next to medical center, center for disabled and soccer stadium

31. Husam Abdu 15 years old

32. A Human Bomb for $22 March 24, 2004, Hawara Checkpoint, the main exit point from Nablus

35. Is there a Humanitarian Crisis in Gaza ?

36. Humanitarian Crisis in Gaza ?

37. Humanitarian Crisis in Gaza ?

38. Humanitarian Crisis in Gaza ?

39. Humanitarian Crisis in Gaza ?

40. Humanitarian Crisis in Gaza ?

41. Humanitarian Crisis in Gaza ?

42. Humanitarian Crisis in Gaza ?

43. Humanitarian Crisis in Gaza ?

44. Humanitarian Crisis in Gaza ?

45. Humanitarian Crisis in Gaza ?

46. Humanitarian Crisis in Gaza ?

47. Humanitarian Crisis in Gaza ? the new shopping mall that in GazaJuly 2010

48. Humanitarian Crisis in Gaza ? the new shopping mall that in GazaJuly 2010

49. Humanitarian Crisis in Gaza ? the new shopping mall that in GazaJuly 2010

50. Humanitarian Crisis in Gaza ? the new shopping mall that in GazaJuly 2010