Toward Prediction of Relativistic Electron Environment in Geospace

1. National Institute of Information and Communications Technology Toward Prediction of Relativistic Electron Environment in Geospace Tsutomu Nagatsuma,K. Sakaguchi, S. Saito, M. Kunitake, and K. T. Murata National Institute of Information and Communications Technology Applied Electromagnetic Research Institute Space Weather and Environment Informatics Laboratory SuperDARN 2011 Workshop 2011/05/30-06/04

2. National Institute of Information and Communications Technology Space Weather and Environment Informatics Laboratory ISES RWC Tokyo Real-time space weather simulator Every afternoon, we make a daily forecast by the meeting. Broadcasting of SWx information on the Web, e-mail, etc.

3. National Institute of Information and Communications Technology Space Weather and Environment Informatics Laboratory The 3rd 5-Year Plan (2011-2015) Space Weather Research based on merging among observation, simulation and informatics Prediction of space environment around GEO Prediction of ionospheric disturbances Development of relativistic electron environment prediction model and high-precision Global MHD simulation ⇒ Prediction of space environment (keV～MeV particles) around GEO Development of near-real time prediction system for generation and propagation of equatorial plasma bubble and high-precision ionospheric simulation including atomospheric and magnetospheric interactions ⇒1 hour ahead of Ionospheric disturbance forecast

4. Is it necessary for predicting space environment around GEO? Satellite anomalies during Halloween event • More than 300 satellites exist in GEO • 24 Japanese satellites in GEO Numbers of satellite anomalies in GEO during 1987 ~ 1994 （from NOAA database） 400~500 Proton Flux More than 60 satellite anomaly events happened in each year 2003/10/28-30（その１） ・国際宇宙ステーションで放射線を防ぐためサービスモジュールに宇宙飛行士避難 ・NOAA 17 機器障害 ・ACE and Wind プラズマ観測不能 ・GOES 静止軌道の電子観測が飽和 ・Chandra 放射線のため自律的に観測停止（11/01に復旧） ・Kodama セーフモード（10/29） ・DMSP F14 SSM/T2センサーに障害、従系に切り換え（11/04に主系に切り換え） ・RHESSI CPUの自然リセット（10/28 and 10/29） ・CHIPS 衛星　18時間通信不能 ・SOHO CDSをコマンドによりセーフモードにした。（10/28-30） ・Odyssey セーフモード　10/29 データダウンロード中にメモリエラー発生、10/31にコールドリブート　MARIE 温度以上で電源オフ、故障（10/28） 2003/10/27 ・GOES8 障害 GEO is important for communications, broadcasting, and meteorological monitoring 2003/11/02 ・Chandra 放射線により自律的に停止 2003/11/06 ・Polar 機器（TIDE）がリセットし高圧電源disable ・Odyssey コマンドでセーフモードにしていたが運用再開 2003/10/28-30（その２） ・Mars Explorer Rover star trackerの異常によりSunアイドルモード ・SIRTF 高プロトンフラックスのため、科学観測機器をオフして地球指向に（10/28） ・X-ray Timing Explorer 二つの観測装置が自動的に停止 ・Microwave Anisotropy Probe star truckerリセット ・GALEX 二つの紫外線観測器が停止 ・Polardespunプラットフォームのロックを３度失う 2003/10/28-30（その３） ・Cluster プロセッサのリセット ・FedSat シングルイベントアップセット（SEU） ・Inmarsat 9機のうち2機でモーメンタムホイールの速度上昇 ・NASAの地球科学ミッションオフィスがAQUA, Landsat, TERRA, TOMS, TRMMの五つの衛星で観測装置を停止させセーフモードに（10/29） ・ICESat GPSがリセット ・UARS　機器（HALOE）のオンを延期 Large number of satellite anomalies are occurred in extreme solar flare event

5. National Institute of Information and Communications Technology Classifications of Satellite Anomaly More than half satelliteanomalies are caused by electrostatic discharge

6. National Institute of Information and Communications Technology Two major charging phenomena related to satellite anomaly①Deep dielectric charging ②Surface charging Deep dielectric charging Surface Charging Accelerations of relativistic electrons Injection related to substorms GEO Satellite Constructing prediction model of relativistic electron flux Constructing prediction model of substorm injection based on Global MHD simulation • Requirement for NICT’s space weather information by satellite operating companies • Observation data and simulation results during previous satellite anomalies period are important for investigation • Surface charging problem is improved for new-generation satellite. However, prediction of surface charging is still important for old-generation satellite. • Prediction of deep dielectric charging is important for next declining phase of 24th solar cycle.

7. National Institute of Information and Communications Technology Example of satellite anomaly at GEO- cases from B-SAT –(http://www5e.biglobe.ne.jp/~kazu_f/digital-sat/satellite.html ） • BSAT-2a（Orbital Sciences：Star Bus） • 2001/09/25anomaly of attitude controlSEU due to Proton Event? • 2001/11/07anomaly of attitude controlSEU due to Proton Event? • 2004/02/14anomaly of transponder(Bs-15ch) Deep dielectric charging due to REE? • 2005/08/19anomaly of command receiver Deep dielectric charging due to REE?  • BSAT-2c（Orbital Sciences：Star Bus） • 2008/09/11anomaly of transponder(BS-3ch) Deep dielectric charging due to REE?  • 2008/09/14anomaly of transponder(BS-13ch Deep dielectric charging due to REE?  • BAST-3a（Lockheed Martin Commercial Space Systems：A2100A Bus） • 2010/08/24BSAT-3atemporal attitude anomaly unknown

8. Feb. 14, 2004 (BSAT-2aanomaly of BS-15ch transponder) relativistic electron enhancement Solar X-ray flux IMF Intensity IMF Bz Vsw Density High energy proton flux Relativistic electron flux at GEO Kakioka K index

9. Relationship between satellite anomalies and relativistic electron flux Radiation belt dynamics Thick line: anomaly period ±5 days Dash line: average level Halloween event Rising phase Solar maximum Important period For prediction Declining phase Now Solar activities（Black） 静止軌道 Cycle 23 Cycle 24 Relativistic electron flux Declining Rising Solar Maximum

10. National Institute of Information and Communications Technology ULF-ELF waves plays an important role for supply and loss of relativistic electrons - Application of ground-based observation data - Pc1 -> loss of relativistic electrons (pitch angle scattering) Pc5-6 -> supply of relativistic electrons (radial diffusion, adiabatic acceleration) Balance between supply and loss controls variations of relativistic electrons -> possibility of prediction of relativistic electrons using ULF waves

11. National Institute of Information and Communications Technology NICT’s Space Weather Monitoring Networks (NICT-SWM) Magnetometer HF radar Magnetometer & HF radar observations in Far East Siberia South-East Asia low latitude IOnospheric Network (SEALION) Domestic Ionosonde Network & Hiraiso Solar Observatory Ionosonde Ionospheric observation at Syowa Base HiraisoSolar Observatory

12. National Institute of Information and Communications Technology Monitoring magnetic field variations at Russian auroral sector based on the collaboration among Russia (AARI, IDG), Japan (NICT, Kyoto-U), and USA (JHU/APL) （77.72,104.28) （70.09,170.93) （73.50,80.60) （71.58、129.00) （69.80、88.13)

13. National Institute of Information and Communications Technology INTERMAGNET • International consortium for geomagnetic observatory (now 104 observatories are participated) We play a role of real-time data exchange in Asian sector with WDC Kyoto.

14. National Institute of Information and Communications Technology NICT_MAG • Monitoring magnetic field variation mainly around Japanese meridian sector which Rapid MAG and INTERMAGNET does not cover

15. National Institute of Information and Communications Technology SuperDARN（King Salmon） King Salmon • Radar observation network for monitoring polar ionospheric convection. We operate HF radar at King Salmon, Alaska for montoring auroral and subauroral plasma flow.

16. National Institute of Information and Communications Technology However, azimuthal Pc5 plasma oscillations observed by KSR is not clearly correlated with geomagnetic pulsations on the ground and in geostationary orbit 2011/06/01(Thu.) 10:30-10:50 Comparison of ionospheric azimuthal Pc5 plasma oscillations with geomagnetic pulsations on the ground and in geostationary orbit, by Sakaguchi et al.

17. National Institute of Information and Communications Technology Research Plan of practical radiation belt model Precipitation Current: radiation belt simulation only for 2MeV electrons Atmospheric loss（installed) Will be installed MPS Whistler EMIC… Magnetopause shadowing （installed） ULF Will be installed Future：constructing prototype of relativistic electron flux prediction Global MHD Empirical model based on NICT’s observation network data Introducing non- stationary background magnetic field from Global MHD simulation GEO

18. Thank You!