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Transport and Climate Change in Industrialized Countries

Transport and Climate Change in Industrialized Countries. COP 10 Side Event “Keep Kyoto on Track” Dr. Harald Diaz-Bone United Nations Climate Change Secretariat (UNFCCC) Buenos Aires, 6 December 2004. GHG Profile of Transport Sector.

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Transport and Climate Change in Industrialized Countries

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  1. Transport and Climate Change in Industrialized Countries COP 10 Side Event “Keep Kyoto on Track” Dr. Harald Diaz-Bone United Nations Climate Change Secretariat (UNFCCC) Buenos Aires, 6 December 2004

  2. GHG Profile of Transport Sector • Transportation is a major and steadily growing contributor • Share in total GHG in 2000: 15.7% to 30.8% • GHG emissions growth rate between 1990 and 2002 is the highest among all sectors (+21%) • International aviation (not included in national totals): Growth rate between 1990 and 2002: +45% • International marine bunker emissions have returned to 1990 levels, mainly because of a large decrease (52 per cent) in marine bunker emissions reported by the United States of America since 1998

  3. The ASIF-Concept: Drivers Behind Emission Trends • Activity: Passenger and freight transport, expressed in vehicle-km, passenger-km or ton-km • Structure: Share of transport modes (motorized individual, public, non-motorized) in transport market • Intensity: Energy intensity of a transport mode, expressed in kJ/km or fuel use in l/100 km or g/km • Fuel: Carbon content of the fuel used, expressed in g/kJ, g/l or g/kg • Total emissions = A • S • I • F

  4. Finland: Decoupling of GDP and Road Transport (Source: MoT) GDP grew by 39% between 1993 and 2000 Road transport volume and related CO2 emissions grew by ~10% between 1993 and 2000

  5. Emissions Trading – Beyond Sectoral Borders • The transportation sector shows the lowest elasticity on changes in fuel price. At the same time, a strategy to increase fuel prices to the levels at which they would cover all external costs is not an option in many countries • Possible way out: Offer the transportation sector to purchase GHG emission reductions from other sectors • An emissions trading market could link the actors across sectoral boundaries and allocate financial resources to cost-effective GHG mitigation projects • The EU Commission currently examines options on how to address aviation emissions. One of the options being examined is to link aviation emissions to the EU emissions trading scheme

  6. Conclusions • Transportation is a major and steadily growing source of GHG emission, recently gained more attention • Governments try to react with technical measures mainly, although the main driver is the increase in transport activity • Parties show little success in sectoral mitigation, the shift towards economic instruments did not bring major improvements, so far • The case of Finland shows that an integrated transport and environment policy can be the basis for a success story in this most difficult sector • Cross-sectoral policies, like emissions trading, might release a bit the CO2-pressure on the transport sector, by linking it with more cost-effective mitigation potentials in the stationary sectors

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