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SCH Service Coordination Hydrologist

SCH Service Coordination Hydrologist. Service Coordination Hydrologist What and why?. New outreach position at RFCs, addresses the growing need at RFCs for outreach and coordination. Very similar to the WCM (Warning Coordination Meteorologist) at the WFOs

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SCH Service Coordination Hydrologist

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  1. SCH Service Coordination Hydrologist

  2. Service Coordination Hydrologist What and why? • New outreach position at RFCs, addresses the growing need at RFCs for outreach and coordination. • Very similar to the WCM (Warning Coordination Meteorologist) at the WFOs • Secondary role is to strengthen the management team at the RFCs • FTE neutral (one GS12 position converted to GS14), vetted with the NWSEO • First SCH fielded was CBRFC • 12 of 13 RFCs have position filled; SERFC and NWRFC have just been filled. OHRFC is last RFC without one • “GOTO” person at RFC to coordinate with outside agencies such as COE, USGS. • Raise the awareness of RFCs to all, including media, universities, EMs, etc • Not designed to step on the toes of WFO Service Hydrologists • Exact role still being defined and developed.

  3. Southern Region SCHs Bill Lawrence/ABRFC Todd Hamill/SERFC Greg Shelton/WGRFC Jeff Graschel/LMRFC

  4. What SCHs do? Communicate! Outreach and communications with our primary customers is our number 1 priority: • NWS WFOs • COE OFFICES • USGS OFFICES • FEMA/STATE or LOCAL EMS • UNIVERSITY/RESEARCH COMMUNITIES • CONGRESSIONAL CONTACTS • PUBLIC

  5. What SCHs do? Educate! Explain and define our mission to all users: • PROVIDING HYDROLOGIC SERVICES FOR PROTECTION OF LIFE AND PROPERTY • ENHANCE THE ECONOMIC WELL BEING OF THE NATION Explain limitations of Hydrologic forecasting • POOR CALIBRATIONS • POOR QPES/QPFS • SHIFTING RATINGS • RECORD EVENTS

  6. What SCHs do? Listen! SCHs will be presenting new products and determining which ones make “sense”, and ones that users WANT!

  7. What SCHs do? Outreach! Public education and outreach Promoting Flood AWARENESS

  8. What SCHs do? Recruit!

  9. What SCHs do? Work, Manage and Lead! Like many in the NWS, we work lots of shifts/weekends/holidays Part of the RFC Management team, provide guidance to staff and input to HIC Lead the office through example

  10. What SCHs do? CHPS Help coordinate and educate our users on upcoming implementation of the Community Hydrologic Prediction System, CHPS. Most important change to RFCs in 30+ years! • The new approach provides: • Open system architecture to easily accommodate addition of models, data, and procedures • Modern platform for collaboration with national/intl agencies, universities, and private sector to leverage work of others • Historically, organizations and groups: • Developed their own unlinked systems • Duplicated efforts • Used disparate tools and processes • Worked independently

  11. HMOS Hydrologic Model Output Statistics

  12. HMOS The NWS has been issuing long range probabilistic forecasts for a number of years now

  13. HMOS There remains a distinct need for SHORT TERM probabilistic forecasts!!! Hydrologic Model Output Statistics

  14. HMOS What is HMOS? • Method of providing uncertainty, i.e. probabilities for SHORT term forecasts, generally <120 hours into the future. • Covers well both Meteorological and Hydrological uncertainties • HMOS parameters are derived from statistical regression • In the case of the ABRFC, we used about 11 years worth of record of daily forecasts and corresponding observations • “How well did you do in the past when you had similar forecasts and starting observation values…?”

  15. HMOS What is HMOS? - Vision 2% Probability Deterministic Forecast 90% Probability

  16. HMOS Confident Forecast < 0.5 ft

  17. HMOS Not so Confident Forecast > 15.0 ft

  18. HMOS Experiences • Limited to daily forecast points currently, and not operationally creating yet. • Found examples where deterministic forecast is not within bounds of probabilistic forecasts • Rating shifts can cause havoc with HMOS, original software did not consider these • Preliminary verification scores are quite good, much better than earlier OHD efforts • Still problems with high QPF events that fall outside 12 hour window that ABRFC currently uses in deterministic forecast.

  19. HMOS High QPF outside 12 hr window

  20. HMOS Works well in many cases

  21. HMOS Future • Re-look at using info from QPF past 12 hour window to hopefully “catch” events • Take a look at rating curve issues • Hopefully implement at a number of daily forecast points within ABRFC • Long term goal is to use a more scientific method to produce a seamless suite of ensembles from 1 hour to 2+ years

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