1. 3rd Annual Missouri Basin River Forecaster’s Meeting NWS Regional Services Assessment preliminary overview Noreen Schwein Deputy for Hydrologic Services NWS Central Region January 24, 2012

2. NWS Service Assessment Focus Areas Focus areas of the NWS Missouri/Souris River Floods of May-August 2011 Service Assessment • Per the NOAA and NWS Strategic Plans, gather stakeholder input and adjust services according to their requirements • Decision Support Services: the nature and effectiveness of the support provided and the methods of information management • Scientific and modeling issues, including those related to data, snowmelt, ensemble and contingency forecasting • Effectiveness of interagency collaboration • Intra-agency services and collaboration among the River Forecast Centers (RFCs), Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) , National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC), and the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC)

3. Preliminary Findings/RecommendationsNot for Public Release Recommendations for enhancements in hydrologic and water resources services include • Expansion of products and information produced • Increased forecast issuance frequency • Need short-term probabilistic forecasts; various contingency forecasts caused some confusion • Need further implementation of flood inundation maps (FIM) and some consistency among the agencies creating them • Improvements in the design, support and overall effectiveness of the Decision Support Services (DSS)

4. Preliminary Findings/RecommendationsNot for Public Release • Science and Technology Recommendations • Expedite implementation of HEC-RAS in areas affected by backwater • Enhance Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) • Need for product consistency within NWS • More consistent use of QPF in river forecasts • Need outreach as to use of QPF in river forecasts • Expedite implementation of short-term ensemble forecasts (HEFS) • Expedite calibration and modeling of reservoir operations

5. Preliminary Findings/RecommendationsNot for Public Release • Data Needs • Seek alternative sources for precipitation information • Improve use of existing observational networks • Enhance current data collections (e.g., snow core for SWE) • Resolve differences in agency rating curves where available to the public • Expedite data interoperability through the multi-agency initiative, Integrated Water Resources Science and Services (IWRSS)

6. Preliminary Findings/RecommendationsNot for Public Release • Interagency Collaboration • Overall “superb”; meetings such as these forecasters meetings were cited as greatly enhancing the capability to react to the unique event • The coordinated range of forecasts collaborated by USACE/NWD, Omaha and KC Districts; and MBRFC were lauded by external customers as a great example of interagency collaboration • Delicate nature of providing “one message” from all the agencies was addressed (USACE-NWS web page)

7. Preliminary Findings/RecommendationsNot for Public Release • Recommendations for Services to Partners • Enhance/Develop volumetric forecast information • Share verification information so partners can assess historical accuracy and confidence • Simplify Flood Warning product suite • Ensure impact statements are accurate • Include information related to levees • Numerous suggestions for web page enhancements • Develop climate products that identify potential for extreme events • Webinars and briefings were noted as a best practice

8. Preliminary RecommendationsNot for Public Release • Decision Support Services (DSS) • Expand the frequency, timing, content, consistency, and location of river forecast services to meet stakeholder requirements • NWS DSS personnel need to understand the ICS structure and related EOC procedures • NWS needs to establish policy and provide guidance to enable the effective execution of DSS • Evaluate how to appropriately respond to requests for embargoed information (e.g., city officials may need info ahead of time in order to properly respond to public) • NWS Meteorological support at USACE EOC was valuable

9. Status of Regional Assessment • Currently in review • Final draft expected in next few weeks • Should be available to public in Feb