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Creative tensions between statistics and economics: The data-ink ratio

Creative tensions between statistics and economics: The data-ink ratio. SERC – Plenary Session 5 Danny Quah Professor of Economics, LSE 08 August 2009. Creative tensions… outside. Global economic crisis: “Spread the joy, feel the burn” Finance and macroeconomics

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Creative tensions between statistics and economics: The data-ink ratio

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  1. Creative tensions between statistics and economics: The data-ink ratio SERC – Plenary Session 5 Danny Quah Professor of Economics, LSE 08 August 2009

  2. Creative tensions… outside • Global economic crisis: “Spread the joy, feel the burn” • Finance and macroeconomics • Asset pricing and economic fluctuations • Examples: • Global imbalances • BRICs in the evolving global economic landscape • Global growth and poverty D. Quah

  3. 1. Global imbalances • Global savings glut, Asian thrift • Flood of cheap capital onto world markets • Ever-more innovative, extreme financial engineering • “Asymmetric obligations” • Causality? D. Quah

  4. US trade deficit and a GDP D. Quah

  5. US trade balance D. Quah

  6. US-China bilateral trade balance D. Quah

  7. US bilateral trade balance D. Quah

  8. US bilateral trade balance D. Quah

  9. 2. BRICs • Growth, convergence • β, σconvergence; unit roots, cointegration; convergence clubs; dynamic distributions • It’s just “Brazil, Russia, India, China” (Goldman Sachs thought leadership) • “The rise of the rest” • “The Asian century/hemisphere” D. Quah

  10. Shifts in the global economy’s centre of gravity … in flat world D. Quah

  11. Shifts in the global economy’s centre of gravity … in flat world D. Quah

  12. Shifts in the global economy’s centre of gravity … in flat world D. Quah

  13. Shifts in the global economy’s centre of gravity … in flat world D. Quah

  14. 3. Global growth and inequality • Tradeoff between growth and inequality? (Kuznets curve, Okun leaky bucket) • Cross section? Time series? Panel? D. Quah

  15. World growth and poverty D. Quah

  16. World growth and poverty D. Quah

  17. World growth and poverty D. Quah

  18. World growth and poverty D. Quah

  19. Conclusions • Discussion on methodology… but also substantive examples • Our methods come up short on the really big questions, those observable from outer space • Edward Tufte’s data/ink ratio • What is our value/statistic ratio? D. Quah

  20. Creative tensions between statistics and economics: The data-ink ratio SERC – Plenary Session 5 Danny Quah Professor of Economics, LSE 08 August 2009

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