Despite a 'normal' monsoon, possibility of drought looms over 251 districts

1. Despite a 'normal' monsoon, possibility of drought looms over 251 districts In 11 states and UTs, including Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Jharkhand, Bihar, Gujarat and Tamil Nadu, 50% or more districts experienced deficient to "large deficient" rainfall, as per an analysis.

2. The possibility of a drought looms over 251 districts of India, mainly in the east, northeast and south, according to an IndiaSpend analysis of rainfall data for 2018. Karnataka declared 23 out of its total 30 districts drought-hit due to deficient rainfall, and Andhra Pradesh announced that 274 blocks in six districts were ‘severe drought hit’. With Jaisalmer and Barmer districts getting less than 60% of normal rains, western Rajasthan is experiencing a dry spell after a decade. The Marathwada and Vidarbha regions of Maharashtra are faced with a drought-like situation. With three days left for September 30, 2018, the official departure of the ongoing southwest monsoon, this year could likely be a “normal” monsoon year. The cumulative rainfall over the country over 117 days since the beginning of the monsoon on June 1, 2018, was -9% of the long term average, according to the latest weekly analysis of the India meteorological department (IMD) published on September 26, 2018. The rainfall was deficient or -10% by September 19, the preceding week. The southwest monsoon accounts for 70% of India’s annual rainfall and is important for its agricultural economy, which is valued at Rs 18 trillion ($250 billion in 2016), or 11% of its gross domestic product (GDP). The IMD categorises monsoon rainfall as “deficient” at a state or a district level when it receives 20%-59% less rainfall than the long-term average and as "large deficient" when it is 60%-99% less. A deficient monsoon year is when the cumulative rainfall across the country remains -10% or above, once called an ‘All India Drought Year’. Rainfall in 251 districts--nearly 37% of India’s districts--remained deficient to "large deficient" till the week ending September 26, 2018. In 11 states and union territories (UTs), including Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Jharkhand, Bihar, Gujarat and Tamil Nadu, 50% or more districts experienced deficient to "large deficient" rainfall, as per our analysis. “Let us wait for the monsoon to end,” D Shivanand Pai, head of the climatic prediction group at the India Meteorological Department, Pune, told IndiaSpend. “Rainfall- deficient regions in the peninsula may receive more rainfall in the remaining days, which would improve over rainfall figures.” If the overall rainfall nationwide drops by 1% more over the remaining three days of September 2018, it could likely be the sixth monsoon drought of the century, following 2002, 2004, 2009, 2014 and 2015. Business Standard