FOOD SECURITY AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE

1. FOOD SECURITY AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Mike Brklacich Carleton University, Canada Inter-American Institute for Global Environment Change, Brazil [next]

2. OVERVIEW • Food Security Research Themes • Climatic Change & Agriculture: Two Generations of Research • Food Security & Global Environmental Change: Bridging the Gap

3. FOOD SECURITY DEFINED “ People having access to sufficient stocks and supplies of food to provide a nutritionally adequate diet”

4. FOOD SECURITY DIMENSIONS

5. FOOD SECURITY DIMENSIONS

6. FOOD SECURITY DIMENSIONS

7. KEY ATTRIBUTES OF FOOD SECURITY • Multiple dimensions • Multiple scales • Beyond securing food, securing human livelihoods • Environmental variability considered • Environmental change (esp GEC) not a major focus

8. ADDING GEC TO THE FOOD SECURITY AGENDA “Adding GEC to the FS research agenda will require an understanding and assessment of the socio-economic context within which food systems are situated as well as GEC processes and impacts”

9. CLIMATIC CHANGE & AGRICULTURE :TWO GENERATIONS OF RESEARCH

10. Macro-Climatic Change Scenarios First-Order Impacts: (Regional Agro-climatic Properties) Second-Order Impacts: (Agric. Land Suitability and Crop Yields) Higher-Order Impacts: (Farm and Regional Production) FIRST GENERATION STUDIES:IMPACTS OF CLIMATIC CHANGE

11. Macro-Climatic Change Scenarios Impacts Adaptation Nonresponse Mitigation SECOND GENERATION STUDIES:RESPONSES TO CLIMATIC CHANGE

12. IIASA-FAO STUDY Source: Fisher et al 2001 Source: Fisher et al 2001

13. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON CEREAL YIELDS Scenario:HadCM3-A1FI, 2080s Country-level climate change impacts on rain-fed cereal production potential: Source: Fisher et al 2001 Source: Fisher et al 2001

14. 1ST & 2ND GENERATION CLIMATIC CHANGE AGRICULTURE STUDIES RESEARCH ATTRIBUTES • Single stressor • Slow, incremental GEC • Single scale • Limited socio-economic change • Vulnerability as a GEC residual

15. 1ST & 2ND GENERATION CLIMATIC CHANGE AGRICULTURE STUDIES CONTRIBUTIONS TO FOOD SECURITY ASSESSMENTS • Effective assessment of food supply issues • Less able to address food entitlement, food access and human livelihood perspectives

16. CLIMATIC CHANGE - AGRICULTURE & FOOD SECURITY RESEARCH: BRIDGING THE GAP

17. INTEGRATING FOOD SECURITY & CLIMATIC CHANGE • Broaden Climatic Change Agriculture Context Multiple stressors Comprehensive scenarios • Vulnerability as a Food System Property not a GEC Residual • Understanding Vulnerability Who & what & why? Measuring differential vulnerability

18. INTEGRATING FOOD SECURITY & CLIMATIC CHANGEcont’d • GEC & Scale Issues Fast vs slow onset Scale integration • Science – Policy Linkages Interventions to reduce food system vulnerability/improve security Improve adaptive capacity - GEC mitigation coupling

19. 3RD GENERATION STUDIES:FOOD SYTEM VULNERABILITY-SECURITY FOCUS GUIDING FACTORS • Likelihood an individual or group will be exposed to and impacted (positively or negatively) by GEC • Capacity to anticipate, cope with, resist, recover from and if necessary adapt from GEC impacts

20. GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Change in freq & mag of threats FOOD SYSTEM SENSITIVITIES GEC Exposure BUILDING A FRAMEWORK TO LINK CLIMATIC CHANGE & FOOD SECURITY

21. GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE Change in freq & mag of threats Capacity to cope with & adapt to GEC GEC Exposure FOOD SYSTEM VULNERABILITY/SECURITY SOCIETAL CHANGE Change in institutions, resource accessibility, economic conditions, etc BUILDING A FRAMEWORK TO LINK CLIMATIC CHANGE & FOOD SECURITY

22. CONCLUDING POINTS • Food Security Dimensions Supply, access & livelihood • Climatic Change Agriculture & Food Security Supply focus to date • Climatic Change Agriculture & Food Security Integration Explicit consideration of food system vulnerability and security