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Climate Change and Global Food Security: Impacts and Policy Responses

Climate Change and Global Food Security: Impacts and Policy Responses. Mark W. Rosegrant Director Environment and Production Technology Division Seminar organized by the School of Economics, UP Diliman , Philippines January 10, 2014. Outline.

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Climate Change and Global Food Security: Impacts and Policy Responses

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  1. Climate Change and Global Food Security: Impacts and Policy Responses Mark W. Rosegrant Director Environment and Production Technology Division Seminar organized by the School of Economics, UP Diliman, Philippines January 10, 2014

  2. Outline Drivers of Agricultural Growth and Food Security Scenario Modeling Methodology Climate Change Impacts Climate Change Adaptation Costs Agricultural Research Investment Impacts Conclusions and Policy Responses

  3. Drivers of Agricultural Growth and Food Security http://www.tribuneindia.com/2004/20040721/har.jpg http://fbae.org/2009/FBAE/website/images/btcotton_rice.jpg • Supply drivers • Climate change • Water and land scarcity • Investment in agricultural research • Science and technology policy • Discovery, development, delivery • Intellectual property rights, regulatory systems, extension

  4. Drivers of Agricultural Growth and Food Security http://www.government.nl/dsc?c=getobject&s=obj&objectid=101492 • Demand drivers • Population growth: 9 billion people in 2050 • Urbanization: 2008 = 50% urban; 2050 = 78% • Income growth: Africa rising • Oil prices • Biofuels and bioenergy • GHG mitigation and carbon sequestration • Conservation and biodiversity

  5. Drivers of Agricultural Growth and Food Security http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Fast_food_(282678968).jpg • Rapid income growth and urbanization - effects on diets and patterns of agricultural production • Change in diets to convenience foods, fast foods • Increased consumption of fruits and vegetables • Higher food energy, more sugar, fats and oils • Rapid growth in meat consumption and demand for grains for feed • Half of growth in grain demand will be for livestock • Intense pressure on land and water (highly water-intensive diet)

  6. Scenario Modeling Methodology

  7. Climate Change Model Components • GCM climate scenarios • Multiple GCM using IPCC SRES A1B scenario, downscaled temperature and rainfall • SPAM • Spatial distribution of crops based on crop calendars, soil characteristics, climate of 20 most important crops • DSSAT crop model • Biophysical crop response to temp and precipitation • IMPACT • Global food supply demand model to 2050 with global hydrology and water simulation by river basin

  8. DSSAT Crop Models • Simulate plant growth and crop yield by variety day-by-day, in response to • Temperature • Precipitation • Soil characteristics • Applied nitrogen • CO2 fertilization • DSSAT-based simulations at crop-specific locations (using local climate, soil and topographical attributes) • Maize: 15,576 cells; Soybean: 9,930; Rice: 9,176; Wheat: 18,661

  9. The IMPACT Model • IMPACT – “International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade” • Global partial equilibrium model • Global • 115 countries • 281 food production units (countries x river basins) • 46 agricultural commodities

  10. IMPACT Model Structure Crop area is a function of crop prices, irrigation investment, water input, climate change Yield is a function of crop price, input price, irrigation investment, water inputs, exogenous yield growth Exogenous yield growth is a function of investment in agricultural research, irrigation, and rural roads Food demand is a function of commodity prices, income, and population Feed demand is a function of livestock production, feed prices, and feeding efficiency Biofuel demand is computed based on policy mandates and targets

  11. Climate Change Impacts

  12. RainfedMaize: Impact of climate change in 2050 (MIROC/A1B) Overall production change in shown existing areas: -11.2% Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations

  13. RainfedMaize: Impact of climate change in 2080 (MIROC/A1B) Overall production change in shown existing areas: -37.3% Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations

  14. Irrigated Rice: Impact of Climate Change in 2050 (MIROC/A1B) Overall production change in shown existing areas: -10.5% Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations

  15. Irrigated Rice: Impact of Climate Change in 2080 (MIROC/A1B) Overall production change in shown existing areas: -16.1 % Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations

  16. Yield changes due to climate change, 2050: Irrigated Rice MIR/A1B: -6.2% CNR/A1B: -6.9% Source: IFPRI ECH/A1B: -6.0% CSI/A1B: -3.3%

  17. Yield changes due to climate change, 2050: Rainfed Rice ECH/A1B: +2.0% CSI/A1B: +0.9% Source: IFPRI MIR/A1B: -0.9% CNR/A1B: +0.6%

  18. Yield changes due to climate change, 2050: Rainfed Maize CNR/A1B: -22.2% ECH/A1B: -15.4% Source: IFPRI MIR/A1B: -13.0% CSI/A1B: -10.2%

  19. Impact on International Food Prices (2010=100) Average of four GCM, A1B, A2 ,B1, B2 Scenarios Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations

  20. Impact on Calorie Consumption Average of 4 GCM and 4 scenarios = 12 % decline in developing countries Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations

  21. Impact on Childhood Malnutrition Average of 4 GCM and 4 scenarios = 10% increase in developing countries Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations

  22. Climate Change Adaptation Costs Estimated in IMPACT Model

  23. Our Definition of Agricultural Adaptation • Agricultural investments that reduce child malnutrition with climate change to the level with no climate change • What types of investments considered? • Agricultural research • Irrigation expansion and efficiency improvements • Rural roads

  24. Adaptation Costs are Large • Required additional annual expenditure: US$7.1 - $7.3 billion • Regional level • Sub-Saharan Africa - 40% of the total, mainly for rural roads • South Asia - US$1.5 billion, research and irrigation efficiency • Latin America and Caribbean - US$1.2 billion per year, research • East Asia and the Pacific - US$1 billion per year, research and irrigation efficiency

  25. Agricultural Research Investment Impacts

  26. Increased Investment Scenario Compared to Baseline Climate Change • Increased Investment in Agricultural R&D • Baseline assumes continuation of trend growth, 2000-2008, in CGIAR and NARS agricultural R&D • Increased investment scenario: Level of CGIAR and NARS investment in agricultural R&D is doubled by 2020 compared to the baseline, then baseline trend to 2030

  27. Changes in World Prices of Crops Relative to Baseline, 2030 Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model

  28. Changes in World Prices of Meat Relative to Baseline, 2030 Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model

  29. Changes in Cereal YieldRelative to Baseline, 2030 Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model

  30. Changes in Cereal Crop AreaRelative to Baseline, 2030 Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model

  31. Changes in Production of MeatRelative to Baseline, 2030 Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model

  32. Impact on Number of Malnourished Children Relative to Baseline, 2030 Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model

  33. Impact on Population at Risk of Hunger Relative to Baseline, 2030 Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model

  34. Conclusions and Policy Responses

  35. Agriculture’s Role is Critical part of the PROBLEM and part of the SOLUTION Source: Farming First 2012 with data from IWMI; UK Foresight Project; WRI; CIA, World Bank; ILO and FAO (clockwise) • Majority of the world’s farms are small • Small farmers represent bulk of world’s poor and 50% of world’s hungry (Hazell et al. 2007)

  36. Building Sustainable Productivity Growth and Resilient Agricultural and Food Systems Accelerate investments in agricultural R&D for productivity growth Invest in climate-smart agriculture Promote complementary policies and investments Reform economic policies

  37. 1. Accelerate Investments in Agricultural R&D for smallholder productivity Global public spending on agric. R&D, 2008 (%) + Invest in technologies for • Crop and livestock breeding • High-yielding varieties • Biotic- and abiotic-stress resistant varieties • Modernize crop water productivity breeding programs in developing countries through provision of genomics, high throughput gene-sequencing, bio-informatics and computer • GMOs where genetic variation does not exist in the crop • Nitrogen use efficiency • Drought, heat and salinity tolerance • Insect and disease resistance Source: ASTI 2012

  38. 2. Invest in Climate-smart Agriculture“triple wins” - productivity, adaptation, mitigation Potential Synergies between productivity, climate change adaptation, and GHG mitigation Source: Bryan et al. 2011

  39. 3. Promote Complementary Policies and Investments • Invest in rural infrastructure and irrigation • Increase access to high-value supply chains and markets e.g. fruits, vegetables, and milk • Promote farmer-friendly innovations • Financial and information services e.g. community banking, ICTs • Farming systems: minimum tillage, integrated soil fertility management, integrated pest management, precision agriculture • Institutional arrangements e.g. producer cooperatives

  40. 4. Reform Economic Policies • Support open trading regimes to share climate risk • Use market-based approaches to manage water and environmental services combined with secure property rights • Reduce subsidies that distort production decisions and encourage water use beyond economically appropriate levels • Fertilizer, energy, water subsidies • Savings invested in activities that boost farm output and income

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