Understanding Political Opinions and Voting Behavior in America

1. Voting III 4/3/2012

2. Clearly Communicated Learning Objectives in Written Form • Upon completion of this course, students will be able to: • identify and explain the role of formal and informal institutions and their effect on policy. • to understand and interpret the United States Constitution and apply it to present policy dilemmas. • to assess the 2010 and 2012 elections without resorting to partisan bickering.

3. Office Hours and Readings • Chapter 4 (pp. 110-129) • Chapter 5 • Office Hours • Today 11-2 • Wednesday 10-2

4. Determining political opinion

5. America is Obsessed with Polling • Why Polls • Raise issues • Gauge support • Get specific opinions • Everyone Uses them • Candidates • Media • Elected officials

6. The GOP

7. What is Sampling? • selecting a representative part of a population • To determine parameters of the whole population.

8. The Concept of Sampling • Blood Tests • Food Tests

9. The Practicality of Sampling • Time • Money • Size

10. How Can a Survey of 1000 People Represent 200 Million? • Responses Cancel each other out • No New opinions are added

11. Problems of Sampling

12. No Sample is Perfect • All samples have error • Large Samples= Less Error

14. All Voters< Registered Voters< Likely Voters

15. Question Bias • Leading Questions • Double Barreled Questions

16. Liars • Socially Acceptable Questions • Always Remember Homer Simpson's Code of the Schoolyard • Don't tattle • Always make fun of those different from you.  • Never say anything, unless you're sure everyone feels exactly the same way you do.

17. Always Check • Who sponsored the poll • How they got the sample • How big was the sample

18. Is government responsive to public opinion

19. Do they Listen? • Government responds to opinion 2/3 of the time • Sometimes they do not listen to public opinion

20. Why Not? • General vs. Intense opinion • Voting vs. general public • Opinion is only one form of participation

21. Opinions can change quickly

22. We Give answers to anything

23. We Know Why We Vote

24. But Who Do we Vote for?

25. Very Simple

26. The Long Term Factor Party Identification

27. Party ID • Psychological attachment to one of the parties • Long Term Factor • Best Predictor of Voting • Influences other short-term factors

28. Cleveland Rocks

29. Party ID Rocks

30. 2008 Vote by Party ID

31. The Durability Of Partisanship in 2008 • Democrats voted for Obama, and Republicans voted for McCain • There are more Democrats in the electorate • Obama wins

32. This is hard Issue voting

33. Issue Voting is Hard • We are clueless • Too many issues • We don’t trust or understand policy

34. Easy/Single Issue Voting

35. Most Important Issues in 2008

36. Retrospective Analysis • Looking back at the economy • Easier to do if there is an incumbent

37. The Economy • The events of 9/14- Voters disagreed with McCain on the Economy

38. Economics

39. Economics

40. We Vote for Who We Like Candidate Appraisals

41. Party Image • Impacts our views of the candidate • Very important for prospective voting • McCain has a terrible party image in 2008

42. The Republican Brand

43. The Third Term

44. Retrospective voting on Bush • Bush is Unpopular

46. McCain Vs. Bush • In the best position of any Republican to run against Bush • In reality no way to distance himself from Bush

47. Candidate Image • Try to create your own • Use issues to your advantage • Don’t Let the Media create one for you

48. Hope and Change • A message that worked • It meant everything and nothing at the same time

49. Change • Randy Marsh on  • Change • Change

50. Hope as a message