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Understanding Police Hiring Impacts on Crime Rates in Major US Cities

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Explore the correlation between police employment and crime rates in large US cities to uncover the impact of public safety spending. Utilize data from 61 cities to estimate a model and predict trends. Investigate the relationship between police force size and violent crime rates.

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Understanding Police Hiring Impacts on Crime Rates in Major US Cities

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  1. A More “Economic” Example • Public finance economists are interested in the productivity of government spending • Two largest components of local spending are schools and public safety • Will hiring more police reduce crime?

  2. Let y=crime rate (crime per person) • Let x=police employed per person • Interested in estimating the gradient • dy/dxhow will crime change when a city hires more police

  3. Collect data on a cross section of cities • 61 cities with populations in excess of 250K • Estimate basic model Yi = β0 + β1Xi + εi • What do you think is the most frequent sign (+ or -) on police?

  4. Crime Rank 1. Detroit 2. Memphis 3. Baltimore 4. Nashville 5. Philadelphia 6. Washington, DC 7. Boston Rank of Police force size 10 27 6 25 8 1 9 Highest violent crime rates

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