1. Potential Climate Change impacts on Sugar Maple Trees in NEW England • By: Katie McGoff

2. Outline • Background • sugar maple trees • preferred habitat • why important • Climate change • air temperature • snow cover • Changes in proportion of precipitation • Snow removal and temperature effects on soil • Seasonal patterns of carbohydrates • Summary • why this matters

3. Acer saccharum, Sugar maple • hardwood • dense round crowns • heights of 20-35m • diameters of 50-90cm • “u-shaped” notched leaves Luzadis et al. (1996).

4. Importance • commercial hardwood • fuelwood • home for wildlife • produce sweet sap • beautiful autumn colors Native range (Goodman, 1978).

7. global temperature are increasing (IPCC 2007). • surface air temperature increase (Houghton et al. 2001). • future of maple industry. • lack of snow to protect roots. • timing of spring. • decline in syrup related to climate variability (Shea et al. 2001).

8. (IPCC 2007)

9. Important forest driver = warming. IPCC (2007)

10. Negative Impact of climate change on starch storage • Interactive effects • biotic stressors (Gregory et al 1986). • insects, root disease, and management injury. • abiotic stressors (Long et al. 1997). • soil moisture, • anthropogenic stressors (McLaughlin et al. 1996).

11. Traditional indicators for syrup runs • Hydrologic variables consistent with warming • spring lake ice-out (Hodgkins et al. 2002). • river ice-out (Dudley and Hodgkins 2002). • snowmelt-driven spring runoff (Hodgkins 2002).

12. Huntington et. al. 2004. Journal of Climate 17: 2626-2636. • Changes in the Proportion of Precipitation occurring as snow in New England (1949-200).

13. Introduction • (S/P) is a hydrologic indicator. • Sensitive to climate variability. • Detect & monitor climate change.

14. MEthods • 21 sites • temperature & precipitation obtained

15. results

16. Results • Average decrease in annual ratio of snow/ total preci • Label open and closed

17. Why do we care? • Magnitude timing of spring. • run-off recession to summer. • earlier arrives.

18. Decker et. al. 2003. Soil science Society of America 67:1234-1243. Snow Removal and Ambient Air Temperature Effects on Forest Soil Temperatures in Northern Vermont.

19. Methods • measured soil temperatures for four winters. • three soil depths. • control (unmanipulated). • snow-free (snow removed).

20. Results • snow-free soils colder at 5cm 15cm all years. • snow cover help insulate soil.

21. snow cover insulates and protects. • increased soil freezing = more root mortality nutrient loss. • potentially alter ecosystem dynamics.

22. Phenological Changes • Bud burst • Bud out • Autumn colors • Leaf drop forestwatch.sr.unh.edu (CITE!)

23. phenology is Consistent with earlier spring • Timing of Lilac blooming (Schwarts Reiter 2000) • Bird migration (Dunn Winkler 1999). • Fish migration (Huntington et al. 2003). • So what about trees?

24. Seasonal patterns of reserve and soluble carbohydrates in mature sugar maple (Acer saccharum) WOND, B. L., BAGGETT, K.L.,RYE, A.H. 2003. JOURNAL OF BOTANY 81: 780-788.

25. Seasonal patterns • production • accumulation • utilization

26. Methods • trees selected randomly. • collections of leaves, twigs and branches. • concentrations of starch were determined

27. Starch = major reserve carbohydrate • Starch is low during active photosynthetic growth • Accumulates in late summer & early fall • correlation between starch hydrolysis - accumulation and temperature • How patterns could shift

28. Why do we care? • Seasonal carbohydrates profiles show seasonal patterns. • linked to phenology & physiology. • use assess disturbance of tree physiology. • Shifts in cold season profiles of carbohydrates. • timing of tapping

29. why do we care? • Decreased Snowfall • Increased soil frost • Increased root mortality • Shifting seasonal patterns Authors photo

30. What becomes of the Future? • How might syrup producers adapt to maintain production if seasonal patterns continue to warming? Authors photo

31. References • An Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change, Climate Change 2007: A Synthesis Report. February 2007, pp. 1-52. • Auclair, A.N.D., Heilman, W.E., and Brinkman, B. Predicting forest dieback in Maine, USA: a simple model based on soil frost and drought. 2010. Canadian Journal of Forest Research. 40: 687-702 • Beckage, B., Osborne, B., Gavin, D.G., Pucko, C., Siccama, T., and Perkins, T. A rapid upward shift of a forest ecotone during 40 years of warming in the Green Mountains of Vermont. 2008. Ecology. 105(11): 4197-4202. • Decker, K.L.M, Wang, D., Waite, C., and Scherbatskoy, T. Snow Removal and Ambient Air Temperature Effects on Forest Soil Temperatures in Northern Vermont. 2003. Soil Science Society of America. 67: 1234-1243. • Dunn, P. O., and D. W. Winkler, 1999: Climate change has affected breeding date of tree swallows throughout North America. Proc. Roy. Soc. London, B266, 2487–2490. • Ford, C.R., Laseter, S.H., Swank, W.T., and Vose, J.M. Can forest management be used to sustain water-based ecosystem services in the face of climate change? 2011. Ecological Applications. 21(6). 2049-2067. • Gavin, D.G., B. Beckage, and B. Osborne. 2008. Forest Dynamics and the Growth Decline of Red Spruce and Sugar Maple on Bolton Mountain, Vermont: A Comparison of Modeling Methods. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 38:2635–2649. • Godman, Richard M., and Joseph J. Mendel. 1978. Economic values for growth and grade changes of sugar maple in the Lake States. USDA Forest Service, Research Paper NC-155. North Central Forest Experiment Station, St. Paul, MN. 16 p. • Horsley, S.B., Long, R.P., Bailey, S.W., Hallet, R.A., and Wargo, P.M. 2002. Health of Eastern North America Sugar Maple Forest and Factors Affecting Decline. Northern Journal of Applied Forestry 19(1):34–44.1 • Hodgkins, G. A., I. C. James, and T. G. Huntington, 2002: Historical changes in lake ice-out dates as indicators of climate change in New England. Int. J. Climatol., 22, 1819–1827. • ——, R. W. Dudley, and T. G. Huntington, 2003: Changes in the timing of high river flows in New England over the 20th century. J. Hydrol., 278, 244–252. • Houghton, J. T., Y. Ding, D. C. Griggs, M. Noguer, P. J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell, and C. A. Johnson, Eds., 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Cambridge Univer- sity Press, 944 pp. • Huntington, T.G., Hodgkins, G.A., Keim, B.D., and Dudley, R.W. 2004. Changes in the Proportion of Precipitation Occurring as Snow in New England (1949-2000), Journal of Climate 17: 2626-2636. • Huntington, T. G., G. A. Hodgkins, and R. W. Dudley, 2003: His- torical trend in river ice thickness and coherence in hydrocli- matological trends in Maine. Climatic Change, 61, 217–236. • Long, R. P., Horsely, S.B., Hallett, R. A., and Bailey, S. W., 2009. Sugar maple growth in relation to nutrition and stress in the northeastern United States. Ecological Applications, The Ecological Society of America 19(6), 1454–1466. • Lovett, G. M., and Mitchell, M. J. Sugar maple and nitrogen cycling in the forests of eastern North America. 2004. The Ecological Society of America. 2(2): 81–88. • Luzadis,V.A. and E.R. Gossett. 1996. Sugar Maple. Pages 157-166. Forest Trees of the Northeast, edited by James P. Lassoie, Valerie A. Luzadis, and Deborah W. Grover. Cooperative Extension Bulletin 235. • Schwartz, M. D., and B. E. Reiter, 2000: Changes in North American spring. Int. J. Climatol., 20, 929–932. • Wong, B.L., Baggett, K.L., and Rye, A.H. Seasonal patterns of reserve and soluble carbohydrates in mature sugar maple (Acer saccharum). 2003. Canadian Journal of Botany. 81: 780-788.

32. Acknowledgements • Dr. Pruyn • Peter Thomas and Mount Cube Farm

33. questions? Authors photo