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ARCTIC HYDROCARBON RESOURCES (Source: USGS)

Arctic Hydrocarbon Reserves in a Global Perspective Pauli Jumppanen In the Spirit of the Rovaniemi Process December 2-4, 2013 Rovaniemi, Finland. ARCTIC HYDROCARBON RESOURCES (Source: USGS). Estimate for exploitable hydrocarbon reserves. 1 Bilion barrels of oil/condensate

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ARCTIC HYDROCARBON RESOURCES (Source: USGS)

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  1. Arctic Hydrocarbon Reserves in a Global PerspectivePauli JumppanenIn the Spirit of the Rovaniemi ProcessDecember 2-4, 2013 Rovaniemi, Finland

  2. ARCTIC HYDROCARBON RESOURCES (Source: USGS) Estimate for exploitable hydrocarbon reserves 1Bilion barrels of oil/condensate 2 Trillion cubic metres of gas 3Billion tons of oil equivalalent 4 % of oil yet to be found 5 % of existing conventional oil/gas reserves Bbl • Does world needs Arctic hydrocarbon reserves? • Are there alternatives to Arctic hydrocarbon development? Pauli Jumppanen2 – 4 . 12. 2013, Rovaniemi, Finland

  3. WORLD POTENTIAL OF FOSSIL FUELS (Various sources) ← 1000 - 16,000 Btoe Billion tons of oil equivalent Sufficiency of recoverable fossil fuels (years) Pauli Jumppanen2 – 4 . 12. 2013, Rovaniemi, Finland

  4. Fossil fuels Hydrocarbons Oil Natural gas & coalgas Coal Peat Nuclear energy Hydropower Renewables Biomass & biofuels Wind power Solar energy Wave and tidal energy Geothermal energy PRIMARY FUELS World fuels’ production 2012 (Source: BP June 2013) Pauli Jumppanen2 – 4 . 12. 2013, Rovaniemi, Finland

  5. SYNTHETIC FUELS • Raw materials • Coal • Natural gas & coalgas • Shale gas & shale oil • Oil sands & bitumes • Biomass • Other • Conversion processes • Direct conversion • Pyrolysis • Hydrogenation • Plasma conversion • Indirect conversion • Fisher-Tropsch (FT) • Methanol to gasolin (MtG) • Other • Synthetic gases • Syngas • Hydrogen • Synthetic liquid fuels • Methanol • Dimethyl ether (DME) • Ethanol • Gasolin • Kerosene • Diesel & biodiesel • Fuel oils • Other Pauli Jumppanen2 – 4 . 12. 2013, Rovaniemi, Finland

  6. WORLD PROVEN OIL RESERVES (Source: BP June 2013) 17,8 % 15.9 Heavy oils (Orinoco Belt) 10,4 Billion (109) barrels (Bbl) 9,5 9.0 7.9 Oil sands 6,1 5,9 5,2 2,9 Total oil 1669 Bbl R/P ratio 52,9 yr EU share 0.4 % 2,2 2.1 1,8 1,5 1.0 Oil company reserves (Ernst & Young 2012) • ExxonMobil 12.3 Bbl (0.73 %*) R/P = 15 yr • BP 10.6 Bbl (0.64 %*) R/P = 14 yr • Shell 6.1 Bbl (0,37 %*) R/P = 10 yr *Share of world reserves Pauli Jumppanen2 – 4 . 12. 2013, Rovaniemi, Finland

  7. WORLD CONVENTIONAL NATURAL GAS RESERVES (Source: BP June 2013) 18.0 % 17,6 13.4 13,0 9.3 Trillion (1012) m3 (Tcm) 4.5 4.4 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.4 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.1 World total reserves: 187.3 trillion m3 • R/P ratio 55.7 years • OECD share 10.0 % • EU share 0.9 % Pauli Jumppanen2 – 4 . 12. 2013, Rovaniemi, Finland

  8. WORLD SHALE GAS RESOURCES (Sources: EIA June 2013, ARI*) Technology (Horizontal drilling & hydraulic fracturing) 15.3 % 32.9 Tcm 14,7 11.0 9.7 9.2 Trillion (1012) m3(Tcm) 7.8 7.4 6.0 5.3 3.9 3.5 3.3 2.9 Technically recoverable shale gas resources: 206.8 trillion m3 Pauli Jumppanen2 – 4 . 12. 2013, Rovaniemi, Finland

  9. NATURAL GAS PRICES 1995 - 2012 (Sources: BAFA, ICIS, Natural Gas Week) USD / million Btu (1 million Btu = 293 kWh ≈ 28 m3 natural gas) Pauli Jumppanen2 – 4 . 12. 2013, Rovaniemi, Finland

  10. ALTERNATIVE OIL RESERVES RESOURCES (Various sources) Technically and economically recoverable oil - 53 v. Billion (109) barrels Pauli Jumppanen2 – 4 . 12. 2013, Rovaniemi, Finland

  11. ALTERNATIVE GAS RESERVES AND RESOURCES (Various sources) Technically and economically recoverable gas - 56 v. Trillion (1012) m3 Pauli Jumppanen2 – 4 . 12. 2013, Rovaniemi, Finland

  12. CONCLUSIONS • Out of Arctic hydrocarbon development, oil reserves are of major interest • Due to significant, good quality conventional oil reserves • Due to interest of some Arctic countries and big oil companies • To decrease dependence on Middle East and Latin Americ’s oil production • Out of Arctic natural gas reserves, only rich condensate fields are of a • short-term interest • Main alternative sources to Arctic hydrocarbons are: • Non-conventional resources like shale oil & gas, heavy oils, oil & gas sands etc. • Synthetic fuels production from shale gas, coal gas, biomass etc. • Renewable sources like biofuels, wind, solar, geothermal etc. • Arctic reserves’ development will proceed slowly due to technology • challenges, environment concerns and oil/gas price fluctuations Pauli Jumppanen2 – 4 . 12. 2013, Rovaniemi, Finland

  13. THANK YOU ! Photo: Markku Lepola

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