Presentation Transcript

1. SEMCOG Forecast Process
2. What is the SEMCOG Forecast? SEMCOG Forecast A 30-year forecast of population by age, households by income and children, employment by sector, and land use change Forecasts changes by individual land parcel, so output can be added up by any political or planning jurisdiction
3. How we Forecast SEMCOG Forecast We collect data on person, household, and job characteristics from state and national surveys such as the U.S. Census Add to that local data on the current and future development of land parcels Add to that other data on transportation, crime, tax rates and other development drivers And input this data into an urban simulation model named UrbanSim
4. Forecast Data Input SEMCOG Forecast Regional Control Totals Land Parcel and Tax Assessor Data: Property Address and Owner Property Class and Property Status Current Zoning Value of the Land and Structures Recent Sales Data Number and Age of Buildings Number of Housing Units Building Occupancy Building Size (Square Feet and Stories) Jobs Data (ES-202): Business Establishments Employment by Type Households Data (Census): Persons, Workers, Children, Age, Race, and Income Future Land Use plans, Crime rates, Environmental constraints, and Property Tax rates UrbanSim Model Travel Data: Travel Time between Areas Accessibility to Transit and Jobs
5. No Structure 1939 or earlier 1940 - 1949 1950 - 1959 1960 - 1969 1970 - 1979 1980 - 1989 1990 - 1999 2000 - 2010 Year Built of Oldest Structure Livingston County
6. Urban Simulation Model SEMCOG Forecast Simulates the interactions between land use, transportation, and public policy It forecasts future household and business locations based on market preferences and available real estate Can model different policy assumptions, such as changes in housing vacancy, land regulation, or travel patterns
7. How the Model Works SEMCOG Forecast Regional Forecast Totals: Population Households Employment New and Moving: Households Businesses Current Inventories: Housing and Households Buildings and Businesses Land Development: Prices Adjusted New Houses New Buildings
8. Solving Problems Local Government Decisions School enrollment has been up slightly over the last few years. Should we build a new elementary school?
9. Change in Population Ages 5 to 17 by School District Large loss (>2,000) Loss (501 to 2,000) Slight loss (0 to 500) Slight gain (1 to 500) Gain (501 to 2,500) School Age PopulationSoutheast Michigan School Districts, 2010-2020
10. Solving Problems Local Government Decision Since the long term forecast for school age children is a decline over the 2010 level, no, a new school building is not needed. School enrollment has been up slightly over the last few years. Should we build a new elementary school?
11. Solving Problems Local Government Decisions We have a grant to build a new community center. Should we build a sports recreation building or a senior center?
12. Population Growth by Age GroupSoutheast Michigan, 2010-2040 Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast
13. Solving Problems Local Government Decision Since the long term forecast is for the senior population to nearly double while all other age groups decline, we should build a senior center. We have a grant to build a new community center. Should we build a sports recreation building or a senior center?
14. Solving Problems SEMCOG Forecast SEMCOG’s regional development forecast is designed to provide local elected officials the data needed to solve current planning issues This is particularly important in a time of limited financial resources
15. Livingston County Draft Forecast
16. Livingston County Totals SEMCOG Forecast Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast
17. Livingston County Trends SEMCOG Forecast Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast
18. Household Growth Continues Percent Change in Households, 2010-2020 Some loss (less than 1%) Gain (0.1% to 5.0%) Moderate gain (5.1% to 10%) Large gain (10.1% to 28.0%) Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast
19. Households Getting Smaller Percent Change in Population, 2010-2020 Loss (3.0% to 10.0%) Stable (3.0% loss to 3.0% gain) Gain (3.1% to 8.0%) Moderate gain (8.1% to 15.0%) Large gain(15.1% to 24.0%) Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast
20. An Aging Population Population Change by Age Group, 2010-2020 Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast
21. Changing Household Structure Household Change, 2010-2040 Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast
22. Employment Gains Change in Employment, 2010-2040 Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast
23. Fenton (Livingston) Tyrone Twp Deerfield Twp Cohoctah Twp Conway Twp Small loss (-1 to -33 jobs) Little change (0 to 25 jobs) Fowlerville Hartland Twp Howell Twp Oceola Twp Small gain (26 to 150 jobs) Handy Twp Howell Moderate gain (151 to 500 jobs) Large gain (more than 500 jobs) Brighton Twp Genoa Twp Iosco Twp Marion Twp Brighton Green Oak Twp Hamburg Twp Putnam Twp Unadilla Twp Pinckney Employment by Community Change in Employment, 2010-2020 Blocked for Confidentiality Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast
24. Local Review Process SEMCOG Forecast Review draft community numbers Get comments or additional information to SEMCOG staff by January 6, 2012 Final community forecast will be complete and approved by March 2012 Data and reports will be available on SEMCOG’s Web site shortly thereafter
25. Southeast Michigan Council of Governments