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Thoughts on Bali (UNFCCC 13 th Session; Kyoto Protocol 3 rd Session)

Thoughts on Bali (UNFCCC 13 th Session; Kyoto Protocol 3 rd Session). National Council for Science and the Environment Washington, DC January 17, 2008. Jonathan Pershing jpershing@wri.org Director, Climate, Energy and Pollution Program World Resources Institute

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Thoughts on Bali (UNFCCC 13 th Session; Kyoto Protocol 3 rd Session)

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  1. Thoughts on Bali(UNFCCC 13th Session; Kyoto Protocol 3rd Session) National Council for Science and the Environment Washington, DC January 17, 2008 Jonathan Pershing jpershing@wri.org Director, Climate, Energy and Pollution ProgramWorld Resources Institute http://www.wri.org

  2. A little history • Bali: the key issues • A review of the key players • Where to from here?

  3. Going-in Expectations Agreement to negotiate a post-Kyoto arrangement, taking into account national circumstances, new science, historic level of effort, and of course, politics

  4. CO2 Emissions Trends 2005 - 2030 Source: IEA WEO, 2006

  5. Projections of Surface Temperature Source: IPCC, 2007

  6. Coming Out Success – albeit mixed

  7. Bali: The Key Issues • Targets • Technology • Forests • Adaptation • Financing

  8. Targets: The IPCC Source: IPCC AR4

  9. Targets The Politics in Bali • US: emissions still rising; most stringent proposed policies do not meet this target; reject target levels • EU: emissions flat; political proposals in key countries of similar stringency already proposed/adopted; support target • Key developing countries: emissions rising rapidly; domestic policies do constrain growth; not prepared to accept legal obligation to target, but are willing to accept requirement to take action

  10. Technology:A portfolio, at scale, is needed Source: Pacala and Socolow, Science, 2004

  11. ForestsREDD: Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation • Deforestation accounts for approximately 20% of global CO2 emissions • Reducing deforestation (in developing countries) not currently creditable under KP flexibility mechanisms • Two proposals: • PNG (+ rainforest nations): propose to allow credits for reduced deforestation with countries taking concrete commitments to reduce forest emissions • Brazil: countries reducing deforestation receive payments from international fund • COP decision encourages tropical forest countries to undertake demonstration activities; provides “indicative guidance” for such projects. • Primary focus on development of national emission baselines, based on historic emissions, against which reductions can be measured. • Left open: whether incentives to reduce deforestation would take the form of carbon credits or direct financial assistance • REDD issues to be taken up in future deliberations under UNFCCC

  12. Vulnerability and Adaptation Most Impacts Will Be Felt in Developing Countries Source: Ian Noble; World Bank

  13. Financing/Investment Sources: New Energy Finance, UNCTAD Statistics, UNFCCC, and The World Bank

  14. The USA

  15. China • Energy Efficiency : 20% reduction energy per unit GDP by 2010 • Renewable Energy: 10% of TPES by 2010 • Industry: stabilize N2O, increase use of CBM for CH4 reduction • Forestry : increase forest cover 20% above 2005 levels by 2010; sequester 50 million tons carbon • Adaptation: forests, grassland, water use, coastal protection

  16. Europe • The EU aims to commit itself, as part of an international climate protection agreement, to a 30% reduction in its greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 (compared with 1990). • Until a new agreement is concluded, and without prejudice to its position in international negotiations, the EU will reduce its emissions by at least 20% by 2020 (compared with 1990). EU GHG Trends and Projections (1990 = 100) Source: EU Environment Agency

  17. Where to from here?

  18. Future Meetings: BUSY Schedule • UNFCCC: • COP 14 and COP/MOP 4: December 1-12, 2008, Poznan, Poland. • COP 15 and COP/MOP 5: November 30-December 11, 2009, Copenhagen, Denmark • First session of the Ad hoc Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the UNFCCC, and 5th session of AWG for further commitments of Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol: March/April 2008, Accra, Ghana • 28th session of UNFCCC Subsidiary Bodies: June 2008, Bonn, Germany • G8 (+5): Japan, June 2008 • Major Economies Meeting: January 2008; Honolulu, HI (plus three more sessions, places TBD)

  19. Jonathan Pershing jpershing@wri.org World Resources Institute http://www.wri.org

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