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Societal Security

Societal Security. IR 3001 Week 5 Lecture. New Wars and Ethnic Conflict. Sudan, Darfur Region:. Circumstances- recent drought, dwindling resources historic ethnic competition between the Masalit/Fur and Arabs 1999 clashes which saw Arabs killed. New Wars and Ethnic Conflict.

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Societal Security

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  1. Societal Security IR 3001 Week 5 Lecture

  2. New Wars and Ethnic Conflict Sudan, Darfur Region: • Circumstances- • recent drought, dwindling resources • historic ethnic competition between the Masalit/Fur and Arabs • 1999 clashes which saw Arabs killed

  3. New Wars and Ethnic Conflict Rwanda/Burundi (1994/1996-) • Circumstances- • Historic tensions between Tutsi 14% and Hutu 85% (Rwanda) • Assassination of presidents in crash • Radical army exiled in Uganda

  4. New Wars and Ethnic Conflict Kosovo (1999-) • Circumstances- • 10 years of conflict in former Yugoslavia • Serbian ultra-nationalist in power • ‘ethnically cleansing’ Kosovo by Yugoslav troops

  5. New Wars and Ethnic Conflict East Timor (1975-1999?) • Circumstances- • 1975 Indonesian invasion after Portugal leave • Super Power politics • Ethnic violence on eve of independence

  6. What do we mean by civil wars? • Henderson et al: ‘A civil war is a sustained, violent conflict between the military forces of s a state and insurgent forces comprised mainly of citizens (or residents) of the state.’ • Types of domestic conflict: • Turmoil • Conspiracy • Internal war • Civil war

  7. Civil wars as nationalist conflicts • What are the options for nationalist movements? • Greater autonomy • Secession (independence) • Irredentism • Why do some groups wish to go further than greater autonomy?

  8. Why do civil wars occur? • Proposition 1: The presence of semi-democracy increases the likelihood of conflict. • Proposition 2: the greater the level of economic development, the lower its likelihood of conflict. • Proposition 3: the larger a state’s level of military spending, the less chance of conflict. • Proposition 4: the greater the cultural polarisation, the greater chance of conflict. • Proposition 5: the presence of ethnic political groups increases the chance of conflict.

  9. Why do civil wars occur? • Proposition 1: The presence of semi-democracy increases the likelihood of conflict. • Proposition 2: the greater the level of economic development, the lower its likelihood of conflict. • Proposition 3: the larger a state’s level of military spending, the greater chance of conflict.

  10. The nature of conflict • Let us move from the ‘why’ to the ‘how’ • Has the nature of conflict changed over time? • Yes and no

  11. New Wars and Ethnic Conflict: Questions • What are ‘old’ wars? • According to Mary Kaldor, what are ‘new’ wars? • What are their causes and effects? • What should be the response of international community? • Does the ‘new’ war hypothesis help us understand security today?

  12. What are old wars? • Kaldor defines an Old War as: • Conflict over territory and sovereignty • Conflict between states. • Conflict had ‘rules’ • Conflict was exclusive • Examples: Napoleonic Wars, Crimean War, First World War, Second World War, Falklands War

  13. What are ‘new’ wars? • ‘New Wars’ are a result of the ‘fragmentation and integration, homogenisation and diversification’ that followed the end of the Cold War.

  14. Why ‘new’ wars? • Causes • End of the Cold War • Globalisation • Weak or failed states • Employment of technology

  15. What are ‘new’ wars? • Defining new wars • Not ideological, but identity conflicts • Non-Combatants as targets • Inclusive conflict • Role of Media

  16. What are ‘new’ wars? • Tactics of New Warriors: • [Ethnic] Cleansing • Solidification of identities • Criminality of conflict • Privatisation of non-state actors

  17. New Wars and Ethnic Conflict Rwanda/Burundi (1994/1996-) • Circumstances- • Historic tensions between Tutsi 14% and Hutu 85% (Rwanda) • Assassination of presidents in crash • Radical army exiled in Uganda

  18. Why are civil wars important for international security? Local Wars, Global Casualties • Terrorism • Economic ruin • Famine • Immigration • Arms Race • No-Go Areas • Environmental Damage • Global Civil Society

  19. Regional Security and IO’s • What is the role of international organisations in maintaining security and what challenges do they face? • Theoretical review • Liberal institutionalism • Neo-liberal institutionalism

  20. Regional Security and IO’s • But for domestic security we should look at common security • Changing role of organisations • Regional organisations today are aimed at settling intra-regional disputes. • Examples: • NATO, OSCE, EU • OAU • ASEAN

  21. Regional Security and IO’s • What right do regional organisation have to intervene in domestic conflicts? • Two views • Restrictionists • Counter-restrictionists (Kaldor)

  22. What should be the response of international community? • Cosmopolitanism or neo-colonialism? • a ‘new kind of soldier-cum-policeman’ • Rapid reaction • Peace-keepers as the norm • Can we trust the powers-that-be to prevent conflict, when it may not be in their ‘interest’?

  23. Does the ‘new’ war hypothesis help us understand security today? • Problems: • Neo-colonialism? • Categorisation? • ‘New’ wars? • However: • Highlights brutality of conflicts • Global dimension of area conflicts

  24. Regional Security and IO’s • What can organisations do other than intervene militarily? • Non-forcible humanitarian intervention • Role for regional organisations? • Yes • But, there are political problems

  25. The End

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