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Intro

Demographics, Labor Markets and Globalization: Trends Affecting College Opportunity Yes We Must Coalition Washington, DC March 18, 2011 Tom Mortenson Senior Scholar The Pell Institute for the Study of Opportunity in Higher Education Higher Education Policy Analyst,

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Intro

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Presentation Transcript

  1. Demographics, Labor Markets and Globalization: Trends Affecting College Opportunity Yes We Must Coalition Washington, DC March 18, 2011 Tom Mortenson Senior Scholar The Pell Institute for the Study of Opportunity in Higher Education Higher Education Policy Analyst, Postsecondary Education OPPORTUNITY Intro

  2. Overview • Three Parameters of Public Policy • Progressive and Regressive Policy Eras • Opportunity Consequences of Policy Shift

  3. Three Parameters of Public Policy Demographic Change Labor Market Change Globalization

  4. K-12 Students Approved for Free or Reduced-School Lunches

  5. Minority Shares of the Education Populations

  6. High School Graduates 1959 to 2009

  7. Total Employment

  8. Distribution of Employment by Industry

  9. Distribution of Goods Producing Employment by Industry

  10. Distribution of Service Providing Employment by Industry

  11. Distribution of Gov Employment Level

  12. Tertiary Type-A Degree Rates, 25-34 OECD & Partner Count. 2003

  13. Tertiary Type-A Degree Rates, 25-34 OECD & Partner Count. 2007

  14. Change in Tertiary Type A Degree Attain. Rates 25034 yr olds OECD & Partner countries 2000-07

  15. Projected Tertiary Type-A Degree Attain Rate 25-34 yr in OECD 2010

  16. Projected Tertiary Type-A Degree Attain Rate 25-34 yr in OECD 2020

  17. Total Tertiary Type B & A 2007

  18. Median Family Income

  19. Median Income for Males Age 25 & Over

  20. Median Income for Females Age 25 & Over

  21. Three Foundations of Public Policy • Progressive and Regressive Policy Eras • Opportunity Consequences of Policy Shift

  22. Policy Eras in the United States • 1862 to 1980: The Progressive Policy Era: • Morrill Land Grant Act created state universities • Teachers colleges for universal K-12 education • Community colleges • Need-based financial aid for students • GI Bill for returning World War II military veterans • Supportive services for students • 1980 to Present: The Regressive Policy Era: • Federal shift from grants to loans, abandon needs-test • State reduction in higher education investment efforts • State shift from need-based grants to merit scholarships • Universities and colleges lust for prestige and revenue

  23. Distribution of Revenue Sources for Financing Higher Education

  24. Share of Federal Student Fin Aid Based on Financial Need 1964-2009

  25. Purchasing Power of Pell Grant Max Award

  26. State Fiscal Support for Operating Expenses FY1961 to FY2011

  27. State Fiscal Support Operating Expenses Higher Ed per $1000 Personal Inc FY2010

  28. Change in State Fiscal Support per $1000 State Personal Inc FY1980-FY2010

  29. Ntl Average Resident Undergrad Tuition – Required Fees Public Inst

  30. Share of State Student Financial Aid Based on Financial Need 1982-2008

  31. Distribution of 4-yr college & Univ Admissions Selectivity

  32. Financial Aid Resources Recvd Full-time, full-yr depend undergrads 1 Institution 2007-08

  33. Financial Resources & Barriers full-time, full-yr depend undergrad 1 Institution 2007-08

  34. Mean Unmet Financial Need by Parents’ Income Quartiles 1990 to 2008

  35. Mean Student Work/Loan Burden by Parents’ Income Quartiles 1990 to 2008

  36. Mean Net Price to Family by Parents’ Income Quartiles 1990 to 2008

  37. Mean Net Price to Family % of Parents Income

  38. Three Foundations of Public Policy • Progressive and Regressive Policy Eras • Opportunity Consequences of Policy Shift

  39. Opportunity Consequences of Policy Shift • Redistribution of college enrollments • Stagnation in college participation rates • Growth in bachelor’s degree attainment mainly in the • inherited privilege classes • Growing gaps in educational attainment between shrinking • majority and growing minority populations • Growing income inequality—higher education is an “engine • of division”

  40. Low Income Student Shares of Totals

  41. Distribution of Dependent 18 to 24 Year Old Enrollment-Inst Level & Family Income 2009

  42. High School Grad Rates by Family income quartiles

  43. College Continuation Rates by Family Income Quartiles…

  44. College Participation Rates by Family Income Quartiles…

  45. Estimated Bach Degree Completion Rates Age 24 by Family Income Quartiles…

  46. Estimated Baccalaureate Degree Attain. By Age 24-Family IncQuartile

  47. Change in Estimated Bach Degree Attainment Rate by Age 24

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