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FY09 GIMPAP Project Proposal Title Page Revised: October 31, 2008

FY09 GIMPAP Project Proposal Title Page Revised: October 31, 2008. Title : Improvement and Validation of Convective storm nowcasting products Project Type : Product Development Proposal Status : Renewal Duration : 2-years Leads: Wayne Feltz/Kristopher Bedka Other Participants :

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FY09 GIMPAP Project Proposal Title Page Revised: October 31, 2008

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  1. FY09 GIMPAP Project Proposal Title PageRevised: October 31, 2008 • Title: Improvement and Validation of Convective storm nowcasting products • Project Type: Product Development Proposal • Status: Renewal • Duration: 2-years • Leads: • Wayne Feltz/Kristopher Bedka • Other Participants: • Justin Sieglaff, Jay Hanna (NOAA/SAB), Local NWS offices

  2. 2. Project Summary • CIMSS has implemented experimental convective initiation (CI) and mesoscale wind algorithms using GOES-12 imager data at NOAA/NESDIS (SAB precipitation team) and is providing these products to local NWS (Sullivan and La Crosse) via AWIPS • Preliminary product feedback indicates time latency and false alarms from errant cloud tracking using meso winds need to be resolved, and night-time CI nowcasting capability needs to be developed • New convective initiation research is proposed to increase processing speed over large imager domain, decrease false alarms, and provide more spatially coherent product output using box-averaged cumulus properties • Relationships will be developed between box-averaged cloud top cooling rate and radar/lightning activity accounting for parallax effect of GOES imagery • Develop and implement night-time CI nowcast logic

  3. 3. Motivation/Justification • Supports NOAA Mission Goal(s): Commerce and Transportation: Support the Nation's commerce with information for safe, efficient and environmentally sound transportation. Weather & Water: Serve society's needs for weather and water information. • Supports validation and transition of a new cooling rate and convective initiation methodology • GOES imager infrared cooling rate is indicating exact location of rapidly developing convection prior to detection of strong radar reflectivity • This information can be used by NWS forecasters, NESDIS SAB Hydrology, and by Aviation interested for short term forecasting of rapid convective development and monitoring continued strengthening • Methodology is currently only daytime, needs parallax correction and robust comparison to Doppler radar reflectivity is needed for validation

  4. 4. Methodology(Consult Supplemental Slides) • Parallax correction needs to be addressed to make cloud top cooling rate and convective initiation signal a viable nowcasting resource for operational NWS and FAA forecasters, we will explore the correction with several different approaches including just using standard atmosphere, a mean cloud top altitude, and also using NWP analysis • Relationships between current box-averaged cloud trends and future response and lightning strikes will be explored • Although night-time convective cloud mask is not available using the 4 channel, 4 km GOES-12 IR imagery, night-time CI nowcast logic will use box-averaging using GOES cloud typing (Pavolonis et al) information

  5. 5. Expected Outcomes • A parallax corrected convective cloud top cooling rate product that can be produced over larger geographic domains in near-real time with reduced false alarms and better spatial coherency in the cooling field • New product will be distributed to local NWS offices and NOAA/NESDIS SAB • Establish relationships between satellite-observed cloud top cooling rate and cloud to ground lightning activity to support possible lightning nowcasting • A prototype night-time convective storm nowcast product which could identify rapidly developing convection using IR radiances and other satellite-derived cloud properties

  6. 6. Progress in FY08 Milestones • Implement optimal parallax correction to products (Figure 1) • A constant cloud-top height of 9km was assumed for parallax correction and updated within AWIPS datafeed • More refined methods are being explored (Standard atmosphere and NWP model profiles) • Use validation study to improve cooling rate signal and reduce FAR • Evaluation of GOES box average cooling rate and CI nowcast products relative to NLDN cloud to ground lightning data is ongoing • Initial plans to use WSR-88D radar reflectivity for validation is much more difficult due to ground clutter, radar echo movement, and areal expansion issues • NLDN data provide a binary validation source and can be gridded/processed to identify the first occurrence of lightning (lightning initiation). Several GOES cases have been selected for study and validation methodology has matured through MSG SEVIRI product validation of S. Africa • Prototype nocturnal convective cooling rate methodologies (Figure 2) • Current research focus is implementation of cloud typing/phase algorithm used within GEOCAT and CLAVR-X and retire University of Alabama – Huntsville statistically based unsupervised clustering • Advantages include 1) physically based, 2) diurnal cloud properties, 3) uses operational datastreams, 4) consistent algorithm logic across all geostationary sensors • Research has evolved (GOES-R3 funding) to develop an IR centric cloud microphysical typing to identify newly developing convective storms using MSG SEVIRI • MSG channel selection will be reduced to match current GOES to understand feasibility of using cloud phase (type) information from current GOES in nowcast • Collaborate with NOAA SAB and local NWS office to provide iterative avenue for product improvement and future path to operations

  7. WSR-88D base reflectivity (upper-left), GOES-12 1 km Visible brightness counts (upper-right), and parallax-corrected 45-minute accumulated cloud top cooling rate displayed in AWIPS at UW-CIMSS.

  8. 7. FY09 Milestones • FY09 • Investigate relationship between GOES imager infrared cooling rate and cloud to ground lightning to evaluate potential nowcasting of lightning activity • Determine proper methodology to develop confidence indicators for convective initiation • Explore GOES end-to-end convective nowcasting methodology (NWP + Sounder stability, CI, overshooting top, thermal couplet) • Provide incremental algorithm improvements to NOAA SAB as needed • Work with NOAA SAB to determine if product is candidate for PSDI research to operations funding and work to OSPD to familiarize with product • Submit peer reviewed paper

  9. 8. Funding Profile (K) • Summary of leveraged funding • GOES-R Risk Reduction CI/Turbulence: Primarily focusing on improvement and validation of new cooling rate methodology using 1-min GOES-12 and 5-min SEVIRI data and improvement of product using microphysical transition information offered by additional SEVIRI radiance channels. This GOES-R3 research does not focus on current GOES 15-min imagery and transition to current operations. Mountain wave turbulence feature detection is also part of this proposal in support of Aviation AWG activities

  10. 9. Expected Purchase Items • FY09 • (75K): STAR CIMSS Grant for 2 people (0.5 and 0.25) from Jan 09 to Dec 09 • Personnel support (including benefits, IT charges, overhead, etc): 65K • Contracts: N/A • Software charges: N/A • Equipment: N/A • Travel (two Madison - DC trips) - 4K • Publication Charges - 6K

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