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Evidence-Based Planning

Evidence-Based Planning. Session 2. The SET Process. You are here. Objectives of Session 2. Briefly review the clusters identified in Session 1 for further exploration Explore data evidence to determine: Industries within clusters that have outperformed in the region compared to the nation

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Evidence-Based Planning

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Presentation Transcript

  1. Evidence-Based Planning Session 2

  2. The SET Process You are here

  3. Objectives of Session 2 • Briefly review the clusters identified in Session 1 for further exploration • Explore data evidence to determine: • Industries within clusters that have outperformed in the region compared to the nation • Local capacity to supply inputs needed for selected clusters • Workforce needs for selected clusters • Use the C.A.R.E. model to create relevant strategies designed to address identified opportunities

  4. C.A.R.E. Model Creation Attraction Retention Expansion Foundation of Economic Growth Source: Barta, et al (2010) CARE Model

  5. Review • Clusters you selected to explore in greater detail • Justification for selecting these clusters • People you invited and/or interviewed

  6. Framing the Data • Economic Modelling Specialists Inc. (EMSI) – Data Source • Algorithms used to estimate where data are not available. • Thus, not all data will reflect the true conditions in the region • Data should be ground-truthedby local experts • Local sources of data should be used to complement SET data • These data: • Do not provide “the answers” • Should be used to start conversations • Can help craft future questions

  7. Honing in on Key Clusters

  8. Shift-Share Analysis

  9. Regional Job Growth: Three Key Components of the Shift-Share Analysis Expected Change The sum of the industrial mix and the national growth effects Explains how much of the regional industry’s growth is explained by the overall growth of the national economy Share of regional industry growth explained by the growth of the specific industry at the national level Explains how much of the change in a given industry is due to some unique competitive advantage that the region possesses Source: EMSI website: http://www.economicmodeling.com/2011/12/05/understanding-shift-share-2/

  10. Forest and Wood Products Shift-Share Analysis (Regional Performance) by Top Industry Sectors Note: Upward arrow ( ) indicates regional competitiveness. EMSI does not include detailed sectors for Other Millwork (including Flooring); and Manufactured Home (Mobile Home) Manufacturing. section 02 • Source: EMSI Class of Worker 2015.4 (QCEW, non-QCEW, self-employed and extended proprietors).

  11. Forest and Wood Product Regional PerformanceShift-Share Analysis Industries that Outperformed Industries that Underperformed Truss manufacturing Flooring contractors • Institutional furniture mfg. • Logging • Finish carpentry contractors • Framing contractors • Siding contractors • Wood container & pallet mfg. • Upholstered household furniture mfg. • Sawmills • Support activities for forestry • Roofing contractors • Wood kitchen cabinet & countertop mfg. Note: Time period 2009-2014; Regional performance controls for BOTH national trends in the overall economy AND national industry trends;

  12. Forest and Wood Products Top Industry Sectors Note: Sorted similarly as the shift-share analysis slide section 02 • Source: EMSI Class of Worker 2015.4 (QCEW, non-QCEW, self-employed and extended proprietors).

  13. Regional Performance • Within your selected clusters, which of the larger industries fared well nationally? Which did not perform well? Why? • Did certain industries within the clusters perform well in the region, given national economic and industrial trends? • Where are exports highest? How does that compare to exports per job?

  14. Import Substitution & Leakages

  15. Forest and Wood Products Top 15 Inputs by Dollars Note: ** industry sector is not present in the region. section 02 • Source: EMSI Class of Worker 2015.4 (QCEW, non-QCEW, self-employed and extended proprietors).

  16. Forest and Wood Products Top 15 Inputs by Dollars (What the Industry Uses) Note: ** industry sector is not present in the region. section 02 • Source: EMSI Class of Worker 2015.4 (QCEW, non-QCEW, self-employed and extended proprietors).

  17. Input Requirements • What inputs do firms within this cluster purchase? • Are these purchases made locally or imported from outside the region? • Are these inputs available locally?

  18. Input Requirements • What industries support this cluster? • Where do leakages occur? • What are the strong sub-sectors?

  19. Plugging the Leaks through Import Substitution • What inputs are the industries within the cluster purchasing from outside the region (leakages)? • Does the region currently have capacity for supplying these inputs cost-effectively? • If yes, why aren’t these transactions occurring? • If no, what are the resources needed to help promote the creation, expansion, retention or attraction of businesses to supply inputs?

  20. Workforce

  21. Forest and Wood Products Top Occupations Note: SOC (Standard Occupation Classification) 5-digit occupations are included by jobs in 2014. Extended proprietors include estimates for underreported self employment, proprietorships, trusts, partnerships and cooperatives. section 02 • Source: EMSI Class of Worker 2015.4 (QCEW, non-QCEW, self-employed and extended proprietors).

  22. Workforce Needs • What types of occupations are needed to fulfill this cluster? • What is the expected educational attainment for these jobs? • Are these living wages with benefits? • Are there training programs in place for these occupations? • What is needed to meet the workforce demands of this cluster?

  23. Workforce What are the workforce needs/skills for this cluster?

  24. Cluster Comparisons

  25. Forest and Wood Products: Contribution by Counties (Jobs 2014) section 03 • Source: EMSI 2015.4 (QCEW Employees, Non-QCEW Employees, Self-Employed, and Extended Proprietors); Industry cluster definitions by PCRD

  26. Glass and Ceramics: Contribution by Counties (Jobs 2014) section 03 • Source: EMSI 2015.4 (QCEW Employees, Non-QCEW Employees, Self-Employed, and Extended Proprietors); Industry cluster definitions by PCRD

  27. Mining: Contribution by Counties (Jobs 2014) section 03 • Source: EMSI 2015.4 (QCEW Employees, Non-QCEW Employees, Self-Employed, and Extended Proprietors); Industry cluster definitions by PCRD

  28. Industry Clusters: Components to Assess section 03 • Source: EMSI 2015.4 (QCEW Employees, Non-QCEW Employees, Self-Employed, and Extended Proprietors); Industry cluster definitions by PCRD

  29. Approaches for Strengthening Clusters

  30. C.A.R.E. Model Creation Attraction Retention Expansion Foundation of Economic Growth Source: Barta, et al (2010) CARE Model

  31. Starting from a Solid Foundation Creation Attraction Retention Expansion • Workforce development • Healthcare • Public policy • Physical infrastructure • Sufficient housing • Adequate transportation systems • Broadband access • Water & energy Foundation of Economic Growth

  32. C.A.R.E. Creation Attraction Retention Expansion • Are there individuals in the region interested in starting a new business? • Are there entrepreneurship training programs in place to build capacity? • Are there channels for accessing capital? Foundation of Economic Growth

  33. C.A.R.E Creation Attraction Retention Expansion • Are there specific types of firms the region could attract to fill the leakage gap? • What strategies are in place to target these specific industries? • What do these industries need to be lured to the region? Foundation of Economic Growth

  34. C.A.R.E. Creation Attraction Retention Expansion • What firms are currently contributing to the cluster? • Are these firms facing any common threats to survival in the region? • Do these firms need any particular programs, resources, policies in order to continue operation in the region? Foundation of Economic Growth

  35. C.A.R.E. Creation Attraction Retention Expansion • Could existing businesses expand to fulfill the needs of the cluster? • What incentives or resources are needed to help these businesses expand? Foundation of Economic Growth

  36. C.A.R.E.: Healthcare Example CREATE: Entrepreneur starts a transportation service for patients. ATTRACT: Hospital attracts a part-time endocrinologist to fill a void. RETENTION: Marketing firm hired to develop marketing strategies to attract more patients EXPANSION: Part-time cardiologist and diagnostics lab expanded to full time FOUNDATION Improved access to high speed Internet through a co-op.

  37. Decision-Making Sweet Spot

  38. Prioritizing Opportunities VS.

  39. Shaping the Path • Focused modules • Additional information • Other?

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