1 / 20

Finding CLEWs

Finding CLEWs. Modelling the interrelated effects of Climate, Land use, Energy, and Water (CLEW) A joint approach with FAO, IAEA, IIASA, KTH, SEI-US, and UN-DESA. Aim of the CLEW approach. Develop clear indicators and quantify physical interrelations between CLEW resources

timothy-mendez
Télécharger la présentation

Finding CLEWs

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Finding CLEWs Modelling the interrelated effects of Climate, Land use, Energy, and Water (CLEW) A joint approach with FAO, IAEA, IIASA, KTH, SEI-US, and UN-DESA

  2. Aim of the CLEW approach • Develop clear indicators and quantify physical interrelations between CLEW resources • Develop tools to assist decision makers to verify the effects on other CLEW resources • Test the tools and calibrate them to different environments / situations / setups through data collection and Case Studies E C C C,L,E,W W Decision E L L W CLEW - Integrated Climate, Land Use, Energy and Water Modelling

  3. Mauritius – pioneer for testing of CLEW modelling tool • Small island with clear boundaries • Producer and exporter of sugar (occupying 80 % cultivated land area) • Dependent on fuel imports for its energy requirement • Highly vulnerable to climate change • Data availability • Government vision for making Mauritius a sustainable island focussing on reducing dependence of fossil fuel and reducing GHG emission … CLEW - Integrated Climate, Land Use, Energy and Water Modelling

  4. Aim of the case study • The CLEW modelling framework was used to assess the energy, water and land-use system in the context of different scenarios in Mauritius: • Reduce gasoline imports by producing ethanol, displacing sugar exports • 2. Considering different energy system alternatives and land use options (e.g. different crops) under uncertain future dryer climatic conditions (lower rainfall ) CLEW - Integrated Climate, Land Use, Energy and Water Modelling

  5. Methodology • Development and calibration of water, energy and land use model using 10 years data (1996- 2005) • WEAP - water • LEAP - energy • AEZ - land production planning • Selective integration of the different models using common assumptions and “soft” linkages to calculate: • What are the changes in total costs? • What are the influences to the local water balance? • How changes the local energy balance? • What are local and externally induced GHG emissions? CLEW - Integrated Climate, Land Use, Energy and Water Modelling

  6. Modeling Tools Used CLEW - Integrated Climate, Land Use, Energy and Water Modelling

  7. Definition of all Catchement areas (60) • Real Climatic Data (1996 – 2005):Rainfall, min & max temperature, humidity .... • All main rivers & reservoirs plus stream flow data and reservoirs levels • Modelling of existing canals / distribution systems • Using GIS: land cover classes to calculate evapotranspiration • Water Demand data (urban and agricultural) according to national statistics and population density Result: Water availabilty for each point in the system CLEW - Integrated Climate, Land Use, Energy and Water Modelling

  8. Results – Scenario B (40% rainfall reduction): Reservoir levels CLEW - Integrated Climate, Land Use, Energy and Water Modelling

  9. Input Data • Supply: • All existingandplanned power plants (capacitiesand plant factors) • Hydropower Plantsandmonthlyproduction • Potential renewableenergytargets • Energyproductionfrombagasse • OilandCoalimports • In the Scenarios: 1st & 2nd generationfrombiomass plus bioethanolproduction • Demand: • from national statisticsandofficialprojections, assumptionsforpumpingwateranddesalination • Demand forethanolproductionfromsugarcane (1st and 2nd gen.) • Energyneedsforfertilzerproduction CLEW - Integrated Climate, Land Use, Energy and Water Modelling

  10. CLEW - Integrated Climate, Land Use, Energy and Water Modelling

  11. AEZ - The Land-Use Model ... • Input: • Climatic Data • Detailed soil map and data from soil profils • Slopes and marginal land • GIS data for landcover • Irrigated areas • Output: • Grid map of Mauritius show optimal crops, potential water use, and potential yield • Crop calendar CLEW - Integrated Climate, Land Use, Energy and Water Modelling

  12. Maps used for AEZ ...

  13. Modeling Tools Used CLEW - Integrated Climate, Land Use, Energy and Water Modelling

  14. Diagram of CLEW interconnections …

  15. Case Study Mauritius – Model Interconnections: CLEW - Integrated Climate, Land Use, Energy and Water Modelling

  16. OIL+COAL external ”lost” SUGAR EXPORT [1000 US$ REAL 2005] [ton CO2eq] [1000 GJ] OIL ELECTR. GENERATION Baseline COAL Reduced GASOLINE IMPORTS TRANS-PORT emissions GASOLINE GASOLINE external

  17. Case Study Mauritius – Results: Questions: • How changes the local energy balance in case local biofuel production under different price and technology scenarios? • What are local and externally induced GHG emissions (taking into account fossil fuel savings and land use changes)? • What are the changes in total costs? • What are the influences to the local water balance? Some Findings: • Increasing water intensity in the agriculture will result in substantially increased energy demand (pumping). • Current trends of decreased rainfall may make other crops interesting for the island. • Induced external land use changes somewhere else have the largest effect on the overall GHG balance (substitution of sugar cane) CLEW - Integrated Climate, Land Use, Energy and Water Modelling

  18. Futur Work and Potential Applications • Further development of the CLEW approach: Developing a simple „user interface“ and defining data requirements and capabilities for the tool. (Further Case Studies, with a potentially excellent applicability in SIDS) • Further development of OSeMOSYS: Designing a tool which is open source, transparent and applicable for developing countries • Include CLEW (or multi resource assessment) options into OSeMOSYS • Improve Modelling of intermittencies and fluctuating RE energy sources (for RE based island systems) CLEW - Integrated Climate, Land Use, Energy and Water Modelling

  19. The CLEW and its Partners • Local GHG emissions (incl. fossil fuels, farming, fertilizer use or use of biofuels) • Foreign induced GHG emissions (especially: induced land-use changes) • Crop yields and related energy balance • Carbon content and storage in plants and soil • Input of water, fertilizer, energy during growth period and harvesting Climate LandUse Energy Water • Water for irrigation • Water for hydropower • Water for cooling powerplants • Water used for biofuel production • Water use during resource extraction • Local Energy use (e.g. energy for farming, production of local biofuels or hydropower) • Foreign induced energy use (imports and exports, fossil fuel extraction) CLEW - Integrated Climate, Land Use, Energy and Water Modelling

  20. Thank You Mark Howells (mark.howells@energy.kth.se) Sebastian Hermann (sebastian.hermann@energy.kth.se) Manuel Welsch (manuel.welsch@energy.kth.se) Royal Institute of Technology – Stockholm – Sweden www.kth.se CLEW - Integrated Climate, Land Use, Energy and Water Modelling

More Related