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Gas Customer Forum Transmission Update

Gas Customer Forum Transmission Update. Chris Logue 9 th July 2007. Items . Gas Quality Web Site Introduction to MIPI Winter Outlook. Gas Quality . Commenced UNC Workshops to work up the requirements of Ofgem’s previous consultation process. NG invest to provide service

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Gas Customer Forum Transmission Update

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  1. Gas Customer ForumTransmission Update Chris Logue 9th July 2007

  2. Items • Gas Quality • Web Site • Introduction to MIPI • Winter Outlook

  3. Gas Quality • Commenced UNC Workshops to work up the requirements of Ofgem’s previous consultation process. • NG invest to provide service • User commitment to send investment signal to NG • Process currently stalled pending a new consultation document from Ofgem

  4. Market Information Provision Initiative

  5. Market Information Provision Content of presentation: • Evolution of current system (IE3) • Current Presentation of Information • Drivers for Change • Market Information Provision Initiative (MIPI) • MIPI presentation Concepts • MIPI future communications

  6. IE3 Evolution – the story so far • Developed in 2000 to provide after the day reports via a web interface on a 9-5 working week basis • Replaced manual creation and paper copy NCORM reports being issued via post to Shippers only. • New reports including within day reports identified as part of DTI Information Initiative added 2003/4 • inc NTSAFF, NTSAPF, NTSEOD etc • Gradual addition of other reporting, particularly near to real time information • Daily Summary Report introduced for winter 2005/6 • GMRS Real Time Flow Data introduced for winter 2006/7 • Most comprehensive public gas market information system in Europe - if not the world

  7. Daily Summary Report Provides a snapshot of prevailing data Provides Alarms, notes and messages Updated within-day as information becomes available Graphical history to give context Key point of entry for most users Key data not all available on the screen at the same time Reports in .PDF and .CSV formats (viewable and/or downloadable) Within-day Daily Weekly Monthly Inflexible from a user perspective (date ranges, report content etc) no automated interface Complicated reports with non-intuitive names and content IE3 Current Presentation Information provided in 2 ways :

  8. Drivers for Change • Utilisation of IE3 increased 20 fold in the last 3 years • High availability and Timeliness of information publication to promote open market conditions through increased transparency of data to all industry participants: • Increasing future links to global markets and European supplies • Evolving market conditions and the dynamic nature of the market • Shift in data use and requirements • Data volume required for market modelling • Offline analytical and user side decision making tools • Limited extensibility for IE3 to accommodate additional functionality, including Regulatory changes (mod 97a, 104, 130, UNC 140 info review)

  9. MIPI Market Information Provision Initiative

  10. Information provided data-centrically Highly resilient, stable platform Provides information in a user friendly way reflecting the GMRS approach: Overview page provides: Within day data Update upon complete data set receipt Added value and meaning to information Explorer pages provide: Access to any stored data User choice of period range Delivery as view, XML, API for data and reports MIPI07 Future Presentation of Information

  11. MIPI07 Key Points for Future • Effective • Clean, uncluttered approach for operational data Users • User friendly and Intuitive • Provide various ways to access the information to maximise benefits for widest range of users • Forward Looking • More data, in less time • Extensibility for regulatory and market change • Transitional Change • Current report based functionality retained within MIPI.

  12. Presentation Concepts Three Tier

  13. Presentation Concepts • Tier 1 – Overview Page • Provides a holistic view of the system with Key Data updated on or relating to the current Gas Day. • Tier 2 – Data Item Explorer • Provides a facility for the user to select data items and date range to view, and / or download in XML or CSV format • Tier 3 – Report Explorer • Provides a facility to view and or download a series of predefined Data Items in XML or CSV format • that have been identified as a set of Data Points that users commonly retrieve. • that are obligated within code to be provided within a single report (currently NCORM) • A series of Data Points that logically provide a holistic view of an issue or field of interest

  14. MIPI future communications Planned communications for MIPI include: • Web News (July) • Regional Seminars (August / September) • API specific seminar (August) • API Documentation (August) • Trade journalist seminar (August / September) • Industry Groups presentations (September) • Go-Live October

  15. Winter Consultation Report – June 2007

  16. Gas Demand • Now updated, similar to 2006 forecast for 2007/8 • Marginally higher due to lower gas price increasing demand in power generation sector • Power generation forecasts are now forecast on a quarterly basis with Jan – March using gas as the marginal fuel with the rest of the year as the preferred fuel • Historical assessment of demands continues to provide sound validation of techniques used

  17. Power generation assessment • Average Cold Spell (ACS) 60.8 GW • Plant margin 23% • Average plant availability 86% (CCGTs 90%) • Demand side response from CCGTs is limited at peak demands as coal is already assumed as the preferred generating source • At lower demands 10 – 20 mcm/d of additional gas could be made available to the market

  18. Within day power generation profile – cold weekday

  19. Transportation Issues • Interruption for capacity management is available to transporters but not expected at material levels • Supply patterns expected to shift to reflect new imports, considerable investment has been made for these to honour Baselines • If implemented, trades and transfers Modifications may impact Baselines • Easington – Pannel to Nether Kellet on schedule, primarily for Aldbrough but will provide capacity to Easington area when Hornsea or Aldbrough flows are reduced • Milford Haven – both connecting pipelines (MH to Aberdulais & Felindre to Tirley) still target completion for next winter

  20. UKCS Forecast • 2006/7 UKCS supplies inline with forecast (except for low flows from • high swing fields at Bacton and Barrow • 14 mcm/d of new fields included in 2007/8 forecast • 90% supply availability used for operational planning (227 mcm/d)

  21. Imports (1) • IUK • Further expansion planned to 74 mcm/d • Expected to operate as marginal source of supply, following price differentials • Expected to have higher import potential post December • BBL • Expected to flow at near uniform 25 mcm/d to satisfy Centrica contract (3 bcm summer, 5 bcm winter) • Norway • Ormen Lange still reported to be on schedule for October delivery • High volumes expected through Langeled & Vesterled with low volumes through newly completed Tampen Link • Langeled imports assumed at 45 mcm/d to enable near full volumes from Rough. Higher volumes may impact other Easington deliveries

  22. Imports (2) • LNG • New deliveries expected this winter from Milford Haven • Dragon expected Q4 2007 • South Hook expected Q2 2008, hence excluded from forecasts • Grain expected to operate as in 2006/7 • Due to lower gas price, Teessport not expected to operate at base load • All LNG is subject to risk of cargo diversion to US and other markets

  23. Non-Storage Supplies • Whilst latest view for 2007/8 suggest much higher non-storage supplies than • for last winter, considerable supply uncertainty exists: • UKCS – lower supply availability, no flow from high swing supplies • Norway – Ormen Lange delayed, higher flows to Continent • IUK – exports due to well supplied UK • BBL – lower flows due to renegotiated contract with Centrica or virtual exports • LNG – commissioning or NTS delays, diverted cargoes • Besides down side risk there is also upside possibilities for all sources • For assessment consider a +/- 30 mcm/d supply range

  24. Storage • For next winter we anticipate higher storage availability through: • Hole House Farm – increased deliverability • Aldbrough – new salt cavity storage, phased build-up of capacity expected

  25. Supply Availability for Average Conditions

  26. Supply Availability for Severe Conditions

  27. Cold Spell Analysis

  28. 2007/8 Safety Monitors • Published May 31st 2007 • Higher non storage supply leads to reduced safety monitor levels • Supply assumptions used are broadly consistent with WCR2 but with an additional supply risk of 20 mcm/d

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