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Debrief on: The Seattle Region’s Roads & Transit Prop 1

Prepared for Presentation to the American Dream Coalition By Emory Bundy, Jim MacIsaac and Doug Simpson November 11, 2007. Defeated on Nov 7, 2007. Debrief on: The Seattle Region’s Roads & Transit Prop 1. What Was the R&T Package?. RTID (Regional Roads Package)

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Debrief on: The Seattle Region’s Roads & Transit Prop 1

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  1. Prepared for Presentation to the American Dream Coalition By Emory Bundy, Jim MacIsaac and Doug Simpson November 11, 2007 Defeated on Nov 7, 2007 Debrief on:The Seattle Region’s Roads & Transit Prop 1

  2. James E. MacIsaac, P.E.

  3. James E. MacIsaac, P.E.

  4. James E. MacIsaac, P.E.

  5. James E. MacIsaac, P.E.

  6. What Was the R&T Package? • RTID (Regional Roads Package) • Initially an $18 billion capital program to improve highways of statewide significance • Reduced by half to allow a “Balanced” Roads and Transit Package • Sound Transit ST2 Package • Started out as a Phase 2 program of 80 transit projects desired by participating agencies • Emerged as mostly a 50-mile extension of Sound Transit’s Light Rail System James E. MacIsaac, P.E.

  7. Central Link LRT ST1/ST2 LRT Plan Promise at $2.3 B Delivery at $4.2 B 18 miles with12 Stations 24 miles with21 Stations 70 miles with34 Stations ?? 2016? “InitialSegment”by 2010 Completionby 2006 Total - $21 Billion James E. MacIsaac, P.E.

  8. All-or-Nothing Ballot • Forced by State Legislature seeking combined support • Total Package Tax: +1.0% Sales Tax plus 0.8% MVET • 20% of state sales tax would go to transit • Tax Sunset Years • RTID – Would Sunset in 2037 • ST1 & ST2 – Hopeful reduction after 2057 bond payoff (but no law commitment) James E. MacIsaac, P.E.

  9. Campaign Approach • It Costs too much … • And it Does so Little! James E. MacIsaac, P.E.

  10. R&T Package Cost 2008-2027 (20-year Capital Development Period) • Cap Cost • 2006$ • ST1 Extend N.A. • ST2 $11 b • RTID $7 b • Totals $18 b Full Cost YOE$ N.A. $23.6 b $14.5 b $38.1 b Post 2027 Bond Interest $9.3 b $47.4 b James E. MacIsaac, P.E.

  11. $157 Billion R&T Tax Proposal* Total Tax Collections: 2008-272008-57 • RTID (Roads) – $8.0 b $16 b • ST1 Extension – $14.8 b $64 b • Sound Transit – $11.7 b$77 b • Total Tax Authorization $34.5 b $157 Billion (10%) • Why thru 2057 for ST2? • Because Sales Tax Revenues will be used to secure the ST2 Bonds with payoff extending thru 2057. • ST uses legal means to extend tax collections. * Source: Sound Transit estimates thru 2040, extended to 2057. James E. MacIsaac, P.E.

  12. Post-Elect Advise to Supporters • "Release one price tag and don't mention another number, ever. So many cost figures were discussed, the public was never certain which was correct. The mentality became, ‘if the experts don't know the true cost, how would we?’ “… Seattle Times James E. MacIsaac, P.E.

  13. Regional Transit Ridership Within Sound Transit Service Area Average Weekday: 2030 w/o ST2* Total Person Trips 13,200,000 Total Transit Trips** 482,000 Transit Mode Share*** 3.7% Transit “Boardings” 661,000 Transfer Rate 1.37 With ST2Change 13,200,000 556,000 +74,000 4.2% +0.5% 818,000 +157,000 1.47 2.12 * Includes ST1 With Central Link from Airport to UW Stadium. ** Source: ST Making Connections, Appendix C, June 2007 *** 2006 Mode Share – 2.9%; Transfer Rate – 1.29. James E. MacIsaac, P.E.

  14. ST2 Effect on Regional Travel • ST1 and ST2 reflect a Light Rail Transit Overlay of transit services to downtown Seattle • But downtown Seattle represents only 10% of Region’s jobs • The ST2 effect on the Balance of the Region is negligible • Following are proportions of tri-county trips generated by three subsectors and the share of those trips served by transit:* Percent of Transit Mode Shares Region SubsectorTotal Trips1998 Base2030 w/ST1&2 Seattle CBD 5%- 27% 44% Balance of Seattle 20-18% 4.5% 6.5% Balance of Region 75-77%0.5%0.7% Total Region 100% 2.7% 3.7% *Source: PSRC 2006 MTP Update. James E. MacIsaac, P.E.

  15. Our Campaign Approach • “It Costs too much, and does so little” • $157 BILLION Dollars <ka-ching> • Heerree’s Doug James E. MacIsaac, P.E.

  16. James E. MacIsaac, P.E.

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