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RUSSIAN OIL AND GAS RESERVES

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  1. RUSSIAN OIL AND GAS RESERVES Ray Leonard YUKOS Uppsala, May 22, 2001

  2. Factors to consider • Existing Reserves • Production Capability • Export Capability • Future Discoveries

  3. New outlook for oil reserves in Russia and Middle East: reality or political numbers game? Russia & Russian companies’ oil reserves 1988 Middle East (OPEC) oil reserves leap 100 93 (bn bbl) (bn bbl) 90 81.8 700 80 634 70 600 60 46.5 40.2 500 50 40 360 400 30 20 300 10 200 0 Proved (A+B+C1) and 50% of C2 reserves of Top 10** 100 Proved (internat. audited 99- 00 ) reserves of Top 4* Proved (A+B+C1) reserves of Top 10** World Energy Council (1998) 0 1988 1987 * LUK, YUKOS, SurgutNG,TNK ** 4 with Onako + Sidanco, Rosneft, Tatneft,Sibneft,Slavneft, Bashneft

  4. Oil Equivalent Reserves

  5. RUSSIAN AND CASPIAN PRODUCTION COMPARED TO WORLD PRODUCTION

  6. TCF GAS

  7. 2001 2002 2000 YUKOS PRODUCTION 220,000 50 58 70 200,000 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000

  8. YUKOS PRODUCTION 110 100 million tons 90 80 70 Yearly Production, 60 50 40 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 YUKOS YUKOS 110 110 100 100 million tons million tons 90 90 80 80 70 70 Yearly Production, Yearly Production, 60 60 50 50 40 40 1986 1986 1987 1987 1988 1988 1989 1989 1990 1990 1991 1991 1992 1992 1993 1993 1994 1994 1995 1995 1996 1996 1997 1997 1998 1998 1999 1999 2000 2000 2001 2001 2002 2002 YEAR YEAR

  9. Average daily rate per new well by Russian oil companies in 2001 Lukoil Slavneft Surgutneftegas Tatneft ONAKO YUKOS Sibneft Total TNK Rosneft Bashneft SIDANCO

  10. FSU oil is competitive on the world market Worldwide full-cycle upstream cost* of oil in 2001 $/bbl Angola 16 Including Government expenses USA, Mexican Gulf (deep) 12 USA onshore Venezuela(conv) USA, stripper wells 8 Russia North Sea China (onshore) Indonesia Western Canada Western Siberia Other 4 Mexico Kazakhstan Brasil USA, Alaska Algeria Saudi Arabia Nigeria Iraq Venezuela(x-heavy) Other Latin America Kuwait Iran UAE Best Companies** 800 700 400 500 600 100 200 300 Reserves, bln.bbl * - finding, development and production excl. transportation and taxes (CERA,Sept. 2001) ** - 2001 finding, development and production cost –3.7 $/bbl,

  11. OIL EXPORT ROUTES

  12. GAS EXPORT ROUTES

  13. Future Potential Reserves

  14. EXPLORATION MATURITY

  15. Potential of Russian Shelf • Seven major basins, each equal to or larger than the Gulf of Mexico or the North Sea • Extensions of producing trends in Pechora Sea, Kara Sea and Sea of Okhotsk • Thick sedimentary basins with all elements for hydrocarbon accumulations in other Arctic and Pacific Basins

  16. SUPPLY AND DEMAND 2000-2010 16 MMBOD 15 MMBOD 22 MMBOD 20 MMBOD 24 MMBOD 18 MMBOD

  17. CONCLUSIONS • Russian oil reserves are probably in the range of 90-105 Billion barrels • These reserves will be capable of sustaining an additional 35% increase over current levels (7.5 MMBOD) for an extended period • New export oil and gas pipelines will allow additional Caspian oil to be marketed and supply Russian oil and gas to the Far East • A combination of mature, developing and frontier exploration can add an estimated 40-50 billion barrels and larger amounts of natural gas • Russian and Caspian oil exports will reach the level of one half of the Middle East by 2010 • Russian gas reserves allow a significant increase from current production and will assume increasing importance as world production eventually peaks and begins to decline