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3. Specialist credit insurance and receivables management arm of Allianz Group.Listed on Paris stock exchange; rated A by S

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    1. Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen. My name is Matthew Ellerton, and Im the Project and Business Development Manager for North Asia for Euler Hermes in Hong Kong. Ive been asked to talk to you today about inter-company trade credit viewed from a credit insurance perspective. Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen. My name is Matthew Ellerton, and Im the Project and Business Development Manager for North Asia for Euler Hermes in Hong Kong. Ive been asked to talk to you today about inter-company trade credit viewed from a credit insurance perspective.

    2. 2 Agenda Ive been asked to talk to you today about inter-company trade credit viewed from a credit insurance perspective. We dont have a lot of time this afternoon, so were going to have a brief look at the following areas: 1. Firstly, an outline of trade credit insurance; what it is, what it covers, and how it works. 2. Secondly, an overview of the characteristics of and issues facing Asian trade and trade credit risk. 3. Thirdly, the market for credit insurance across Asia. 4. And finally, Ill look at how credit insurers assess buyer credit risk and the ways in which credit insurance can be linked with financing. Ive been asked to talk to you today about inter-company trade credit viewed from a credit insurance perspective. We dont have a lot of time this afternoon, so were going to have a brief look at the following areas: 1. Firstly, an outline of trade credit insurance; what it is, what it covers, and how it works. 2. Secondly, an overview of the characteristics of and issues facing Asian trade and trade credit risk. 3. Thirdly, the market for credit insurance across Asia. 4. And finally, Ill look at how credit insurers assess buyer credit risk and the ways in which credit insurance can be linked with financing.

    3. 3 About Euler Hermes For those of you not already familiar with Euler Hermes, please allow me the liberty of a bried introduction. Euler Hermes is the specialist credit insurance and receivables management arm of Allianz Group, and has been underwriting trade credit insurance for over 85 years. Were a public limited company, listed on the Paris stock exchange, and rated A+ by S&P. Were the largest credit insurer worldwide, with global market share of some 37%. We have a presence in 39 countries, either directly or through operational partnerships, including the PRC, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, Korea, Singapore, Thailand and Malaysia. Our principal activities are credit insurance, the management and financing of trade receivables (including factoring and securitisation), bonding and guarantees. We have been administering the Federal state export credit guarantee scheme on behalf of the German government since 1949. We currently protect some 600 bn dollars of global business transactions through 6.5 million individual credit limits, and we have access to financial information on some 40 million companies globally.For those of you not already familiar with Euler Hermes, please allow me the liberty of a bried introduction. Euler Hermes is the specialist credit insurance and receivables management arm of Allianz Group, and has been underwriting trade credit insurance for over 85 years. Were a public limited company, listed on the Paris stock exchange, and rated A+ by S&P. Were the largest credit insurer worldwide, with global market share of some 37%. We have a presence in 39 countries, either directly or through operational partnerships, including the PRC, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, Korea, Singapore, Thailand and Malaysia. Our principal activities are credit insurance, the management and financing of trade receivables (including factoring and securitisation), bonding and guarantees. We have been administering the Federal state export credit guarantee scheme on behalf of the German government since 1949. We currently protect some 600 bn dollars of global business transactions through 6.5 million individual credit limits, and we have access to financial information on some 40 million companies globally.

    4. 4 Trade credit insurance Depending on its country and trade sector, commercial trade debt typically constitutes 10-30% of a companys balance sheet. Trade receivables have a direct effect on the companys cashflow, P&L, working capital requirements, and profit. Trade receivables are one of a companys largest unprotected, liquid assets. Paretos Law suggests that a company has 80% of its trade debt exposure with its top 20% of customers, and vice versa, so it is highly exposed to the failure of a single top customer. Credit insurance provides a means of securing these assets and reduces the potential for damage to either balance sheet or reputation. In Europe, it is the most common form of credit risk transfer for non-financial institutions. It protects the supplier (the insured) against the non-payment of trade debts by its customers, and provides 3 key roles : Bad debt prevention; debt collection; and, where these have failed, insurance. Credit insurance is not a typical insurance product. Theres no blanket coverage of risk, unlike for example in property insurance; it requires a high level of ongoing interaction between the insured and the insurer; and with its close links with financing it is in many ways closer to being a banking product than an insurance product. The policyholder (the insured) is the manufacturer or supplier, and the risk is the suppliers customer, the debtor. Coverage falls into two broad categories that are defined as commercial risks and political risks.Depending on its country and trade sector, commercial trade debt typically constitutes 10-30% of a companys balance sheet. Trade receivables have a direct effect on the companys cashflow, P&L, working capital requirements, and profit. Trade receivables are one of a companys largest unprotected, liquid assets. Paretos Law suggests that a company has 80% of its trade debt exposure with its top 20% of customers, and vice versa, so it is highly exposed to the failure of a single top customer. Credit insurance provides a means of securing these assets and reduces the potential for damage to either balance sheet or reputation. In Europe, it is the most common form of credit risk transfer for non-financial institutions. It protects the supplier (the insured) against the non-payment of trade debts by its customers, and provides 3 key roles : Bad debt prevention; debt collection; and, where these have failed, insurance. Credit insurance is not a typical insurance product. Theres no blanket coverage of risk, unlike for example in property insurance; it requires a high level of ongoing interaction between the insured and the insurer; and with its close links with financing it is in many ways closer to being a banking product than an insurance product. The policyholder (the insured) is the manufacturer or supplier, and the risk is the suppliers customer, the debtor. Coverage falls into two broad categories that are defined as commercial risks and political risks.

    5. 5 Insured risks Commercial risks concern payment default as a result of the buyer having financial difficulties, and include insolvency (or its equivalent in the country of the debtor); default of a Promissory Note; and what is termed protracted default. Protracted default is a catch-all cover that triggers once the debt remains unpaid at 180 days past due date. It occurs when the buyer is neither insolvent nor has failed to honour a Promissory Note, for example where the buyer has accepted delivery and then just disappears. Political risks are less to do with the buyers financial status and more to do with the country risk of the buyers country, and the risks include currency inconvertibility; war; contract cancellation; exchange transfer delay; and so on. Commercial risks concern payment default as a result of the buyer having financial difficulties, and include insolvency (or its equivalent in the country of the debtor); default of a Promissory Note; and what is termed protracted default. Protracted default is a catch-all cover that triggers once the debt remains unpaid at 180 days past due date. It occurs when the buyer is neither insolvent nor has failed to honour a Promissory Note, for example where the buyer has accepted delivery and then just disappears. Political risks are less to do with the buyers financial status and more to do with the country risk of the buyers country, and the risks include currency inconvertibility; war; contract cancellation; exchange transfer delay; and so on.

    6. 6 The global credit insurance market To give you some idea of the size of the private (and by that I mean non-state) credit insurance market globally, premiums and fees paid to private market credit insurers last year amounted to some 4.3 billion US Dollars. In terms of market shares, the global market is dominated by 3 major specialist credit insurance groups, Euler Hermes, Gerling NCM, which is in the process of rebranding as Atradius and recently partnered with CyC, and Coface. These 3 groups together control over 80% of the world market. AIG is another global player, although credit insurance generates only a small fraction of its total revenue, and QBE, an Australian group, also has operations across the region. To give you some idea of the size of the private (and by that I mean non-state) credit insurance market globally, premiums and fees paid to private market credit insurers last year amounted to some 4.3 billion US Dollars. In terms of market shares, the global market is dominated by 3 major specialist credit insurance groups, Euler Hermes, Gerling NCM, which is in the process of rebranding as Atradius and recently partnered with CyC, and Coface. These 3 groups together control over 80% of the world market. AIG is another global player, although credit insurance generates only a small fraction of its total revenue, and QBE, an Australian group, also has operations across the region.

    7. 7 Questions and issues facing Asian trade There are a number of issues facing Asian corporates today. First is a general and widespread decline in credit quality over the past couple of years. There has also been a divergence of accounting regulations and standards between countries in the wake of Enron/Anderson, and this has been compounded by widespread talk of the possibility of systemic failure across the banking systems of some countries. And just to make matters worse, the pressure on banks is squeezing the availability of traditional sources of finance. Asian corporates are increasingly operating or being forced to operate on a global scale, and this has to be reflected in their risk management programmes. As their globality increases, so does the scale and speed with which their exposure to risk changes. Bankruptcies are inevitable and, as weve seen in the past 2 years, they can happen to big name companies. Corporate failures are coming from increasingly unpredictable sources, for example global economic changes; loss of market; fraud; complex financial re-/structuring; regulatory changes; legal manoeuverings such as Chapter 11; product liability and political upheaval. Theres also the question of whether the rating agencies such as S&P and Moodys should have predicted these high-profile failures, and the agencies have come in for a lot of criticism for exactly this. But these agencies are by definition reactive, whereas a more proactive tool such as credit insurance might have worked better, if for no other reason than that the insurers have a vested interest in mitigating their own risk and exposure.There are a number of issues facing Asian corporates today. First is a general and widespread decline in credit quality over the past couple of years. There has also been a divergence of accounting regulations and standards between countries in the wake of Enron/Anderson, and this has been compounded by widespread talk of the possibility of systemic failure across the banking systems of some countries. And just to make matters worse, the pressure on banks is squeezing the availability of traditional sources of finance. Asian corporates are increasingly operating or being forced to operate on a global scale, and this has to be reflected in their risk management programmes. As their globality increases, so does the scale and speed with which their exposure to risk changes. Bankruptcies are inevitable and, as weve seen in the past 2 years, they can happen to big name companies. Corporate failures are coming from increasingly unpredictable sources, for example global economic changes; loss of market; fraud; complex financial re-/structuring; regulatory changes; legal manoeuverings such as Chapter 11; product liability and political upheaval. Theres also the question of whether the rating agencies such as S&P and Moodys should have predicted these high-profile failures, and the agencies have come in for a lot of criticism for exactly this. But these agencies are by definition reactive, whereas a more proactive tool such as credit insurance might have worked better, if for no other reason than that the insurers have a vested interest in mitigating their own risk and exposure.

    8. 8 Characteristics of Asian trade credit Before I talk about the market for credit insurance throughout Asia, Id like to provide some context by giving a brief overview of the features of trade generally in Asia. One feature is the widespread use of Promissory Notes in markets such as Korea and Japan. Promissory Notes can be endorsed by the seller and used as onwards payment to the sellers own suppliers, a mechanism that is largely unfamiliar to Europeans and which has created a culture of circular credit. One of the trends that has become clear over the past 5 years or so is the decline in the use of Letters of Credit in Asia, largely due to competitive pressures from overseas buyers in the wake of the Asian financial crisis. Whereas Asian suppliers had been able to rely on secure terms such as L/Cs, theyre now forced to move onto more open and less secure terms. Regulatory and insolvency frameworks vary widely between different countries, and although there is generally an upward trend in corporate insolvencies, the differences in frameworks and in reporting standards make comparison difficult, with some countries including sole traders as individual bankruptcies, others as corporate failures, whilst in some countries insolvency regulations are so limited that almost nothing that we would view as a corporate failure would count as a formal insolvency. These factors have contributed to an increased awareness of and focus on trade risks, and in particular on credit risk, and Asian corporates are increasingly seeking alternative means of managing and off-setting their credit risk. In a chicken and egg scenario, these means are becoming more prevalent as products that have been seen in Western markets for decades are beginning to gain a foothold in Asia, products such as non-recourse factoring, invoice discounting, forfaiting, financial guarantees, CDOs, credit swaps, derivatives, bonds and credit insurance. Credit insurance was historicallly provided only by the state Export Credit Agencies (ECAs) and was only available for export and not domestic trade. However, over the past 5 years or so there has been a mass entry into Asia of private market credit insurers, whose stomping ground was traditionally limited mainly to Western Europe.Before I talk about the market for credit insurance throughout Asia, Id like to provide some context by giving a brief overview of the features of trade generally in Asia. One feature is the widespread use of Promissory Notes in markets such as Korea and Japan. Promissory Notes can be endorsed by the seller and used as onwards payment to the sellers own suppliers, a mechanism that is largely unfamiliar to Europeans and which has created a culture of circular credit. One of the trends that has become clear over the past 5 years or so is the decline in the use of Letters of Credit in Asia, largely due to competitive pressures from overseas buyers in the wake of the Asian financial crisis. Whereas Asian suppliers had been able to rely on secure terms such as L/Cs, theyre now forced to move onto more open and less secure terms. Regulatory and insolvency frameworks vary widely between different countries, and although there is generally an upward trend in corporate insolvencies, the differences in frameworks and in reporting standards make comparison difficult, with some countries including sole traders as individual bankruptcies, others as corporate failures, whilst in some countries insolvency regulations are so limited that almost nothing that we would view as a corporate failure would count as a formal insolvency. These factors have contributed to an increased awareness of and focus on trade risks, and in particular on credit risk, and Asian corporates are increasingly seeking alternative means of managing and off-setting their credit risk. In a chicken and egg scenario, these means are becoming more prevalent as products that have been seen in Western markets for decades are beginning to gain a foothold in Asia, products such as non-recourse factoring, invoice discounting, forfaiting, financial guarantees, CDOs, credit swaps, derivatives, bonds and credit insurance. Credit insurance was historicallly provided only by the state Export Credit Agencies (ECAs) and was only available for export and not domestic trade. However, over the past 5 years or so there has been a mass entry into Asia of private market credit insurers, whose stomping ground was traditionally limited mainly to Western Europe.

    9. 9 The credit insurance market in Asia The countries in Asia with the highest concentration of credit insurance providers are Hong Kong and Singapore, which are also the two most open markets from a regulatory viewpoint. In Taiwan, Thailand and the Philippines, insurance from offshore is permitted, but the insured loses out on tax benefits that it would gain by using a locally registered provider. In China, demand for credit insurance is potentially huge. Export cover is available solely from the state ECA, Sinosure. Domestic cover has only become available in recent weeks, and various new entrants into the domestic market are now emerging. Here in Korea, both export and domestic cover are controlled by the state. Exports are covered primarily by the Korea Export Insurance Corporation, and domestic mainly by the Seoul Guarantee Insurance Company, with the Korea Credit Guarantee Fund soon to enter the domestic market. Demand for cover is high, and there have been a number of partnerships between state and private insurers to allow private carriers to service Korean subsidiaries of existing clients. In Malaysia, both export and domestic cover is available only from the state insurer MECIB, although domestic cover is written partly in partnership with the private market, which shares in the risk. In India, the market is highly regulated, and there are significant barriers to entry. However, there a number of Indo-foreign joint ventures offering credit insurance in addition to the state export agency, ECGC. Indonesia is effectively a closed market. Demand is limited, and credit insurance licenses are prohibitively expensive.The countries in Asia with the highest concentration of credit insurance providers are Hong Kong and Singapore, which are also the two most open markets from a regulatory viewpoint. In Taiwan, Thailand and the Philippines, insurance from offshore is permitted, but the insured loses out on tax benefits that it would gain by using a locally registered provider. In China, demand for credit insurance is potentially huge. Export cover is available solely from the state ECA, Sinosure. Domestic cover has only become available in recent weeks, and various new entrants into the domestic market are now emerging. Here in Korea, both export and domestic cover are controlled by the state. Exports are covered primarily by the Korea Export Insurance Corporation, and domestic mainly by the Seoul Guarantee Insurance Company, with the Korea Credit Guarantee Fund soon to enter the domestic market. Demand for cover is high, and there have been a number of partnerships between state and private insurers to allow private carriers to service Korean subsidiaries of existing clients. In Malaysia, both export and domestic cover is available only from the state insurer MECIB, although domestic cover is written partly in partnership with the private market, which shares in the risk. In India, the market is highly regulated, and there are significant barriers to entry. However, there a number of Indo-foreign joint ventures offering credit insurance in addition to the state export agency, ECGC. Indonesia is effectively a closed market. Demand is limited, and credit insurance licenses are prohibitively expensive.

    10. 10 Buyer risk assessment The core principle at the heart of credit insurance is buyer risk assessment, and to illustrate this, Euler Hermes has over 1,000 staff worldwide working on risk underwriting and information management. Buyer risk assessment involves the assessment and ongoing monitoring of buyers financial risks in terms of their financial strength and performance, competitive outlook, growth prospects and industry trends. The insurer determine the buyers creditworthiness and confirm or restrict the availability of cover by providing credit limits for each buyer, which define the level of exposure up to which the client is insured. So how do credit insurers assess risk? In practise, were looking for an answer to the question, will this company still be around in 12-18 months time? To answer this question requires proximity to the risk. Its no use trying to assess the financial risk of a company in Korea if the insurer is trying to do this from 10,000 miles away, and many specialist credit insurers now have risk offices set up around the globe. Insurers utilise a mix of manual and automatic underwriting, based on each insurers own internal risk models, with manual underwriting for large, high-risk or more complex decisions. These decisions require information, and insurers have developed vast databases of financial and trade information from a wide variety of sources, using both public and private information.The core principle at the heart of credit insurance is buyer risk assessment, and to illustrate this, Euler Hermes has over 1,000 staff worldwide working on risk underwriting and information management. Buyer risk assessment involves the assessment and ongoing monitoring of buyers financial risks in terms of their financial strength and performance, competitive outlook, growth prospects and industry trends. The insurer determine the buyers creditworthiness and confirm or restrict the availability of cover by providing credit limits for each buyer, which define the level of exposure up to which the client is insured. So how do credit insurers assess risk? In practise, were looking for an answer to the question, will this company still be around in 12-18 months time? To answer this question requires proximity to the risk. Its no use trying to assess the financial risk of a company in Korea if the insurer is trying to do this from 10,000 miles away, and many specialist credit insurers now have risk offices set up around the globe. Insurers utilise a mix of manual and automatic underwriting, based on each insurers own internal risk models, with manual underwriting for large, high-risk or more complex decisions. These decisions require information, and insurers have developed vast databases of financial and trade information from a wide variety of sources, using both public and private information.

    11. 11 Sources of information This gives a good indication of the breadth and type of information that credit insurers use to assess their clients buyer risks. Some of this information is available in the public domain, such as annual reports and accounts, trade references, and information purchased from information agencies or credit agencies. This gives a good indication of the breadth and type of information that credit insurers use to assess their clients buyer risks. Some of this information is available in the public domain, such as annual reports and accounts, trade references, and information purchased from information agencies or credit agencies.

    12. 12 Sources of information However, much of the information is private and specific to the insurer, such as confidential information obtained directly from visiting the client or debtor, and in-house analysis such as the insurers knowledge of that trade or industry sector, or information about a countrys trade patterns and economic status obtained from risk visits to the country. But the most valuable sources of information for the insurer are these: -- CLICK -- These are the sources that are absolutely key. Annual financial accounts are great if you want to see where a company was 18 months ago, but these sources allow the insurer to track the current, real-time financial position of a buyer, and provide a very useful early warning sign of trouble. For example, clients are obliged to inform the insurer of adverse information about their debtors, such as when a debt reaches a certain period overdue, and the insurer uses this information to track payment performance. This is a very powerful tool, and where a client informs the insurer of payment problems with a particular debtor, the insurer is immediately able to reduce its own exposure as well as the exposure of all of its clients to that debtor.However, much of the information is private and specific to the insurer, such as confidential information obtained directly from visiting the client or debtor, and in-house analysis such as the insurers knowledge of that trade or industry sector, or information about a countrys trade patterns and economic status obtained from risk visits to the country. But the most valuable sources of information for the insurer are these: -- CLICK -- These are the sources that are absolutely key. Annual financial accounts are great if you want to see where a company was 18 months ago, but these sources allow the insurer to track the current, real-time financial position of a buyer, and provide a very useful early warning sign of trouble. For example, clients are obliged to inform the insurer of adverse information about their debtors, such as when a debt reaches a certain period overdue, and the insurer uses this information to track payment performance. This is a very powerful tool, and where a client informs the insurer of payment problems with a particular debtor, the insurer is immediately able to reduce its own exposure as well as the exposure of all of its clients to that debtor.

    13. 13 Links with financing So how does all of this tie in with a companys or a banks financing requirements? Both state and private credit insurers have worked closely with financial institutions for decades. Where the state insurers have traditionally been very active in state-supported project finance work, the private insurers are constantly finding new ways of working with banks on a purely commercial basis. Credit insurance enhances the quality of trade receivables, and whereas in Europe risk management is the leading factor behind clients purchasing credit insurance, the primary driver in Asia is to gain greater access to funding. In the simplest form, the client pledges insured trade receivables to the bank. Claim payments are assigned to the bank to give the bank greater security and allow the client access to secure additional funding. In more sophisticated forms, credit insurance can be used in the structuring of trade debt finance solutions, such as credit insured non-recourse factoring or invoice discounting, where the bank finances trade receivables for its own clients, with the insurer supporting the bank directly. However, probably the most complex of all at the moment is securitisation.So how does all of this tie in with a companys or a banks financing requirements? Both state and private credit insurers have worked closely with financial institutions for decades. Where the state insurers have traditionally been very active in state-supported project finance work, the private insurers are constantly finding new ways of working with banks on a purely commercial basis. Credit insurance enhances the quality of trade receivables, and whereas in Europe risk management is the leading factor behind clients purchasing credit insurance, the primary driver in Asia is to gain greater access to funding. In the simplest form, the client pledges insured trade receivables to the bank. Claim payments are assigned to the bank to give the bank greater security and allow the client access to secure additional funding. In more sophisticated forms, credit insurance can be used in the structuring of trade debt finance solutions, such as credit insured non-recourse factoring or invoice discounting, where the bank finances trade receivables for its own clients, with the insurer supporting the bank directly. However, probably the most complex of all at the moment is securitisation.

    14. 14 Securitisation Asset-backed securitisation, or ABS, has been rather a buzzword in insurance circles over the past few years, and weve begun to see its application in a trade credit context, with the securitisation of trade receivables. This is an area that has developed almost exclusively in the US and Europe, but banks and insurers are starting to recognise its potential in Asia. In its purest form, securitisation is a means of raising potentially large amounts of capital secured by the companys assets, in this case its trade receivables, and it involves solely risk transfer, without any element of risk mitigation. The role of the credit insurer is to enhance the value of the receivables. Lets take an example. Asset-backed securitisation, or ABS, has been rather a buzzword in insurance circles over the past few years, and weve begun to see its application in a trade credit context, with the securitisation of trade receivables. This is an area that has developed almost exclusively in the US and Europe, but banks and insurers are starting to recognise its potential in Asia. In its purest form, securitisation is a means of raising potentially large amounts of capital secured by the companys assets, in this case its trade receivables, and it involves solely risk transfer, without any element of risk mitigation. The role of the credit insurer is to enhance the value of the receivables. Lets take an example.

    15. 15 1. Company sells its invoices to a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV). 2. Company takes credit insurance; alternatively, SPV takes insurance. 3. SPV issues bonds that are backed by insured receivables as underlying asset; receivables are enhanced by insurance. 4. Investors buy bonds for cash. Bonds are made more attractive to investors because of credit insurance security. Securitisation Lets say that a company has a pool of debtors with ratings varying from A+ to C, and it want to raise capital against these receivables. In order to raise the maximum capital possible, the company needs to enhance these receivables rating, so it approaches a AA-rated insurer. The company creates a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) and sells the receivables to it. The SPV purchases insurance from the credit insurer. The SPV issues commercial paper, using the insured receivables as the underlying asset. The receivables are enhanced by the insurance, so that they effectively become AA-rated themselves. Investors buy the bonds for cash, and the bonds are made more attractive to the investors because of the added security of credit insurance. The SPV pays the seller company for the receivables with the proceeds of the bond issue, and the seller transfers the money to the SPV as the receivables are paid. The SPV in turn pays a dividend and, eventually, the principal, to the investors.Lets say that a company has a pool of debtors with ratings varying from A+ to C, and it want to raise capital against these receivables. In order to raise the maximum capital possible, the company needs to enhance these receivables rating, so it approaches a AA-rated insurer. The company creates a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) and sells the receivables to it. The SPV purchases insurance from the credit insurer. The SPV issues commercial paper, using the insured receivables as the underlying asset. The receivables are enhanced by the insurance, so that they effectively become AA-rated themselves. Investors buy the bonds for cash, and the bonds are made more attractive to the investors because of the added security of credit insurance. The SPV pays the seller company for the receivables with the proceeds of the bond issue, and the seller transfers the money to the SPV as the receivables are paid. The SPV in turn pays a dividend and, eventually, the principal, to the investors.

    16. 16 Questions And that, ladies and gentlemen, concludes my presentation. Thank you for listening. Does anyone have any questions? And that, ladies and gentlemen, concludes my presentation. Thank you for listening. Does anyone have any questions?

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