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Retail Overview Q4 2010

Retail Overview Q4 2010. Source: Nielsen Scan Track epos data to w/e 25.12.10 R Watson. Total Seafood Retail Market Slows . In the 52 weeks to 25 th December 2010 GB seafood retail market was worth £2.840 billion, up 0.64% on last year. . 0.64%. Source: Nielsen Scan Track till roll data.

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Retail Overview Q4 2010

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  1. Retail OverviewQ4 2010 Source: Nielsen Scan Track epos data to w/e 25.12.10 R Watson

  2. Total Seafood Retail Market Slows • In the 52 weeks to 25th December 2010 GB seafood retail market was worth £2.840 billion, up 0.64% on last year. 0.64% Source: Nielsen Scan Track till roll data

  3. Chilled Sector Drives Value Growth Source: Nielsen Scan Track till roll data

  4. Total Seafood Retail Market Volume Falls • In the year ending 25.12.2010, 377,468 tonnes of seafood was sold in the GB retail market, falling -1% Source: Nielsen Scan Track till roll data

  5. Chilled Sector Drives Volume Growth ¹ includes shellfish meals, ² excludes shellfish meals Source: Nielsen Scan Track till roll data

  6. Market Segmentation Remains Unchanged • Chilled seafood still accounts for 56% of the market by value. There have been no significant changes in the segmentation of the seafood market compared to Q4 2009 Source: Nielsen Scan Track till roll data

  7. Total Seafood De-values (Q4 2009 vs Q4 2010) • Q4 De-valuation lead by chilled and the strong de-valuation of Ambient Source: Nielsen Scan Track till roll data

  8. Frozen Sales Rally in Final Quarter of 2010 • Overall seafood sales for Q4 2010 are up compared to Q3, with only Ambient performing poorly Source: Nielsen Scan Track till roll data

  9. Chilled Market Segmentation • Chilled Natural and Prepared are the largest segments in the Chilled sector with a combined 80% of the Chilled market by value and 70% by volume MAT 25.12.2010 Source: Nielsen Scan Track till roll data

  10. Frozen Market Segmentation • Segments in the frozen sector are much more evenly spread • Natural has the largest share of the market by value MAT 25.12.2010 Source: Nielsen Scan Track till roll data

  11. Chilled Segment Driven by Chilled Prepared • Prepared and Sauce are also showing good growth up 7.7% and 12.9% respectively • Fingers are growing at +94% (albeit from a small base) up further from the 77% in Q3 Source: Nielsen Scan Track till roll data

  12. Chilled Volume Growth Slows • Chilled volume growth is slowing with Natural, Cakes, Sushi & Batter and in decline. Source: Nielsen Scan Track till roll data

  13. Frozen Segment in Decline • Frozen Sauce halts its growth on the back of NPD push • Frozen Batter and Frozen Breaded have stabilised after a period of decline Source: Nielsen Scan Track till roll data

  14. Frozen Volume Decline Stabilises • Although frozen Sauce sales remain steady the decline in volume may indicate the market is becoming more premium than the traditional products they replace Source: Nielsen Scan Track till roll data

  15. Three Year Value Trends Source: Nielsen Scan Track till roll data

  16. Three Year Volume Trends Source: Nielsen Scan Track till roll data

  17. Top 5 Species by Sector – to 24.12.10 New Species Frozen • New species

  18. Limited Supply Keeps Salmon Prices High (Q3 vs Q4 2010) • Norwegian Salmon export prices rose 20.2% in 2010 ( Globefish) • By the close of 2010 the Chilean industry is showing signs of recovery. But continued demand and limited supply will keep prices high into 2011

  19. Q4 Trends analysis • Total seafood value grew by 4% in Q4, principally driven by an 11% increase in total Salmon. Caused by seasonal demand and easing of supply. (2.0% over 52 wks) • Compared to Q3, the value of chilled sector grew by 4% and frozen by 9%. With ambient falling by -7%. • Compared to Q4 2009, the value of the chilled sector is up +2%, with both chilled and frozen up by 2% and 3% respectively.

  20. Summary 2010 • In the 52 weeks to 25th Dec 2010 the GB seafood retail market slowed. Worth £2.839 billion, up 0.6% on last year, with volume sales falling -1.0% to 377,468 tonnes. • This modest value growth was driven by the chilled sector (3.2%) by positive growth in the top 3 chilled species: salmon (2%), Warm Water Prawns (9.4%), and Cod (5%). • Both the value and volume of ambient fell sharply (-4.6% and -4.3% respectively), as a result of a corresponding fall in the volume and value of tuna and salmon. Wholesale skipjack prices rose by nearly 100% at the beginning of 2010 (Infofish Trade News) . With the recent reduction in catch quota, rising demand from new markets (Asia) and uncertainty over oil and tinplate prices, further price increases are predicted for 2011 (Globefish)

  21. Summary……. • Both the value and volume of frozen fell (-1.1 and -0.9% respectively), driven by corresponding falls in frozen natural, frozen fingers and frozen sauce. • Chilled fingers continue their rapid value growth up +94%, from 77% in Q3 albeit still from a small base. • The popularity of chilled meals continues, with value up 13%. Whilst frozen meals have experienced a corresponding fall. • Shellfish meals increased by +23%. • The chilled shellfish category continues to perform well, whilst frozen shellfish and ambient shellfish are steady or in decline.

  22. What Does 2011 hold? • Changing global dynamics as ‘new’ markets (Russia, Brazil, Mexico, Middle East & West Africa, displacing EU, USA and Japan, creating new opportunities • Salmon: Chilean ISA crisis settles, brisk demand and limited supply will keep prices high • Groundfish: Sustainability, pushed to counter falling prices resulting from pressure from Tilapia and Pangasius • Tuna: Reduced quota and increased canning costs to drive prices • Prawns: High demands and low harvests continue to drive costs

  23. Global Market 2010 Globefish Highlights and European Price reports are available from: http://www.globefish.org/price-reports.html And will be available free from the Seafood Information Network in Summer 2011

  24. Definitions • All data is sourced to Nielsen Scan Track EPOS (till roll data). • MAT = moving annual total – 52 weeks • Segment definitions • Sushi – include all sushi, where fish & seafood are contained within. • Fingers – include all fish & seafood which are described as fingers. • Cakes – include all fish & seafood which are described as cakes. • Sauce – include all fish & seafood which is described as being in a sauce. • Batter –include all fish & seafood which is described as being coated in batter or battered. • Breaded – include all fish & seafood which is described as being coated in breadcrumbs or breaded. • Prepared – include all fish & seafood which has been treated/prepared in some way and is not included within the above values. Eg all fish & seafood sticks including sticks with a dipping sauce. • Natural – include all fish & seafood which has not been treated in any way. • The Cake or Finger value is a more important value, than Batter or Breaded. • All segments can be further broken down into smoked/unsmoked and organic/standard

  25. Seafish Market Information Index NielsenReports on the Seafood Information Network (10 new reports pcm): • Main SIN Marketing Department Services page • Nielsen Grocery Reports: Nielsen Retail Performance &  Nielsen Essential Retail reports • Nielsen Retail Market Tracking Data:  Ambient, context, prawn, cod, chilled, smoked, scampi & langoustine  & salmon reports • Food Service Reports to Dec 10  Reports On Seafish.org (7 new reports pcm): Main Market Planning publications page  • Total seafood imports/exports by country  (Seafish web resources are currently being rationalised. Latest Import Information is now on the Seafood Information Network here) • Imports/exports by species and country   • Imports/exports by species and presentation  • Cod haddock and prawn imports by top chilled and frozen codes  (a new report that breaks out the top chilled and frozen codes (by value) for cod, haddock and prawns by country of origin) Key Reports & Information: Retail market overview 2010  Protein comparisons March 2010. 2009 Seafood Supply Chain Trade Summary 2009 Scottish Sea Fisheries Statistics: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/News/Releases/2010/05/26113316 Worldwide seafood production data - see FAO website: http://www.fao.org/fishery/statistics/programme/3,1,1/en

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