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How to Valorise Research on the Effects of Peak Oil for Urban Planning?

How to Valorise Research on the Effects of Peak Oil for Urban Planning?. A Method to Investigate Peak Oil Risks and Mitigation Dr. Susan Krumdieck Associate Professor Department of Mechanical Engineering University of Canterbury Christchurch, New Zealand.

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How to Valorise Research on the Effects of Peak Oil for Urban Planning?

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  1. How to Valorise Research on the Effects of Peak Oil for Urban Planning? A Method to Investigate Peak Oil Risks and Mitigation Dr. Susan Krumdieck Associate Professor Department of Mechanical Engineering University of Canterbury Christchurch, New Zealand Presentation to Walloon Parliament 26 April 2011 Namur, Belgium

  2. Peak Oil Issue Even if you believed it was an issue, what would you do about it?

  3. Research Developments 2000-2011 • Peak Oil as a Planning Issue • Transition Engineering for Mitigation

  4. Risk Assessment and Mitigation • Risk Assessment: Probability and Impact • Adaptive Capacity • Resilience • Re-Development • Strategic Development Planning New Zealand Herald

  5. Peak Oil: Understanding the Issue • Not really a question of if • Probability (Campbell, 2004)

  6. Peak Oil: Probability Meta Analysis of Petroleum Geology and Supply Experts Expert Assessments of Peak Oil Year Expert predictions of Supply Decline Rate 1.4% 2.0% 2.4% 4.0% 4.8% 6.7% Number 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030

  7. 50% Reduction by 2050 Peak Oil Issue: Probability Meta Analysis of petroleum geology experts Raleigh Distribution Monte-Carlo Simulation (Krumdieck, Page, Dantas, 2010)

  8. Long Range Fuel Supply Probability Probability associated with scenarios of oil supply issues.

  9. Peak Oil: Impact • Behaviour and Access to Activities • Assets and Infrastructure Investments Change in Oil Supply Current Energy Use For Current Travel Demand Adaptation Future Energy Use For Future Travel Demand

  10. Oil Supply Decline Impact Study of Adaptation University of Canterbury, Christchurch Students $13,500 pa Staff $66,000 pa

  11. Local Adaptive Capacity • Travel Adaptive Capacity Assessment Survey (TACA Survey)

  12. Travel Behaviour Trips per week per 100 persons Students 5.6 litres/wk 34.7 km/wk Distance Traveled Staff 17.6 litres/wk 60.7 km/wk Transport Energy

  13. Car use reduction Adaptation in Travel Demand Do you have an alternative? Normal Alternatives

  14. Travel Behaviour Adaptive Capacity Christchurch 49% Energy Reduction 30%

  15. Bus Routes Public Transport Adaptive Potential Christchurch 33% Bus Potential 18%

  16. Council Urban Plan 2041 Christchurch Sprawl Christchurch Densification 95% higher fuel demand than 2006 45% higher fuel demand than 2006

  17. Travel Activity Calculate Energy Consumption E2< E1? Modify Travel Activity Energy Constraint E2 E1 No Yes Constrained Travel Activity Calculate Risk Risk to Essential Transport Activities RECATS Method (Dantas et al, 2008)

  18. 95% Energy Increase Greater Christchurch Fuel consumption 600 UDS Concentrated UDS Dispersal 500 400 45% Increase 300 200 100 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Risk to Essential Activities Canterbury Regional Fuel Use Risk = 0.65 Risk = 0.17

  19. Mitigation and Planning • Urban Form Developments • Urban Villages and Free Markets • Public Transport • Densification • Bike Infrastructure • Technologies • Vehicles and Fuels • Behaviours • Residential Location • Mode Choice Which is the answer?

  20. Strategic Analysis: Opportunities

  21. Urban Form Adaptations Fuel, Vehicle, Behaviour Adaptations Dense City Centre Integrated Urban Villages Current Urban Form Active Infrastructure 100km Bikeways Possible Unlikely Possible Possible 3 L/100km Fleet Efficiency No No No No 50% Biofuels Synfuels No Unlikely golf carts only No No 50% Electric Vehicles 50 km of Electric Trolleys Unlikely Possible Possible Possible Yes Yes Yes Possible Low Carbon Lifestyle Strategic Analysis to 2050 • Personal Travel in Dunedin • Technical Feasibility • Resource Availability • Economic Viability • Social • Environment • Asset Value • Future Risk

  22. Thank you for your attention Engineering Research to Investigate and Mitigate Peak Oil Risks Dr. Susan Krumdieck Presentation to Walloon Parliament 26 April 2011 Namur, Belgium

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