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Education Progress Outlook: How Demographic, State Budget and College Pricing Trends Threaten Continued Progress Joseph

Education Progress Outlook: How Demographic, State Budget and College Pricing Trends Threaten Continued Progress Joseph L. Marks SREB Director of Education Data Services SACCR Conference 2006 Nashville, Tennessee July 24, 2006. From the facts … A Story. 1) Population trends …

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Education Progress Outlook: How Demographic, State Budget and College Pricing Trends Threaten Continued Progress Joseph

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  1. Education Progress Outlook: How Demographic, State Budget and College Pricing Trends Threaten Continued Progress Joseph L. Marks SREB Director of Education Data Services SACCR Conference 2006 Nashville, Tennessee July 24, 2006

  2. From the facts … A Story 1) Population trends … will make education progress harder. 2) Minority students … making progress, but alarming gaps remain. 3) Rising costs to attend college … a problem for student groups whose enrollment is increasing the fastest.

  3. 1) Population trends … will make education progress harder.

  4. Population 25 to 64 White SREB States, 2000 Hispanic Four-Year Two-Year Source: NCHEMS analysis of U.S. Bureau of Census data.

  5. Population 25 to 64 White SREB States, 2000 Hispanic Four-Year 47% had never attended college — 28% had a bachelor’s or advanced degree Two-Year Source: NCHEMS analysis of U.S. Bureau of Census data.

  6. Population 25 to 64 White SREB States, 2000 Hispanic Four-Year 56% had never attended college — 15% had a bachelor’s or advanced degree Two-Year Source: NCHEMS analysis of U.S. Bureau of Census data.

  7. Population 25 to 64 White SREB States, 2000 Hispanic Four-Year 66% had never attended college — 13% had a bachelor’s or advanced degree Two-Year Source: NCHEMS analysis of U.S. Bureau of Census data.

  8. Population 25 to 64 White SREB States, 2000 Hispanic Four-Year 32% had never attended college — 48% had a bachelor’s or advanced degree Two-Year Source: NCHEMS analysis of U.S. Bureau of Census data.

  9. Projected Increases in Working-Age Adults 25 to 64 Years Old, 2000 to 2020 White SREB States Source: NCHEMS analysis of U.S. Bureau of Census data.

  10. Never Attended College White SREB States Black 2000 2020 Source: NCHEMS analysis of U.S. Bureau of Census data.

  11. Bachelor’s or Advanced Degree White SREB States Black 2000 2020 Source: NCHEMS analysis of U.S. Bureau of Census data.

  12. A Bachelor’s or Advanced Degree White SREB States Black 1990 2000 Source: NCHEMS analysis of U.S. Bureau of Census data.

  13. 2) Minority students … making progress, but alarming gaps remain.

  14. Increase in Bachelor’s Degrees Earned SREB States, 1994 to 2004 Black and Hispanic students accounted for 48% Black & Hispanic 37,700 All Other 41,700 79,400

  15. Black Students as a Percent of Total SREB States, 2002 Hispanic Four-Year Two-Year Source: NCHEMS analysis of U.S. Bureau of Census, WICHE and NCES data.

  16. Hispanic Students as a Percent of Total SREB States, 2002 Hispanic Four-Year Two-Year Source: NCHEMS analysis of U.S. Bureau of Census, WICHE and NCES data.

  17. Graduation Rates Public Four-Year College & University Students White SREB States, 2002 Hispanic Four-Year Two-Year Source: NCHEMS analysis of NCES data.

  18. Graduation Rates Public Two-Year College Students SREB States, 2002 Hispanic Four-Year Two-Year Source: NCHEMS analysis of NCES data.

  19. 3) Rising costs to attend college … a problem for student groups whose enrollment is increasing the fastest.

  20. 1984 1994 2004 Percent of Income Requiredto Pay for One YearPublic University, United States Annual household income Percent required for one year’s tuition, fees, room and board 2 point change

  21. 1984 1994 2004 Percent of Income Requiredto Pay for One YearPublic University, United States Annual household income Percent required for one year’s tuition, fees, room and board 10 point change !

  22. 1984 1994 2004 Percent of Income Requiredto Pay for One YearPublic University, United States Annual household income Percent required for one year’s tuition, fees, room and board 48 point change !

  23. 1984 1994 2004 Percent of Income Requiredto Pay for One YearPublic University, United States Annual household income Percent required for one year’s tuition, fees, room and board Middle and lower-income students face an affordability gap.

  24. Affordability GapPublic Two-Year Colleges and UniversitiesSREB States, 2004 GAP Fillers: Scholarships, State Grants, Extra Earnings, Cutting Costs Gap $1,350 Gap $2,150 Tax credit $1,500 Annual tuition, fees, and living expenses $6,900 SEOG $700 Pell Grant $2,300 Pell Grant $4,050 Expected family contribution $1,750 SREB median income family: $37,600 U.S. poverty level family: $17,000

  25. Affordability GapPublic Two-Year Colleges and UniversitiesSREB States, 2004 GAP Fillers: Scholarships, State Grants, Extra Earnings, Cutting Costs Gap $1,350 Gap $2,150 Tax credit $1,500 Annual tuition, fees, and living expenses $6,900 SEOG $700 Pell Grant $2,300 Pell Grant $4,050 Expected family contribution $1,750 SREB median income family: $37,600 U.S. poverty level family: $17,000

  26. Affordability GapPublic Two-Year Colleges and UniversitiesSREB States, 2004 GAP Fillers: Scholarships, State Grants, Extra Earnings, Cutting Costs Gap $1,350 Gap $2,150 Tax credit $1,500 Annual tuition, fees, and living expenses $6,900 SEOG $700 Pell Grant $2,300 Pell Grant $4,050 Expected family contribution $1,750 SREB median income family: $37,600 U.S. poverty level family: $17,000

  27. Affordability GapPublic Two-Year Colleges and UniversitiesSREB States, 2004 GAP Fillers: Scholarships, State Grants, Extra Earnings, Cutting Costs Gap $1,350 Gap $2,150 Tax credit $1,500 Annual tuition, fees, and living expenses $6,900 SEOG $700 Pell Grant $2,300 Pell Grant $4,050 Expected family contribution $1,750 SREB median income family: $37,600 U.S. poverty level family: $17,000

  28. Affordability GapPublic Two-Year Colleges and UniversitiesSREB States, 2004 GAP Fillers: Scholarships, State Grants, Extra Earnings, Cutting Costs Gap $1,350 Gap $2,150 Tax credit $1,500 Annual tuition, fees, and living expenses $6,900 SEOG $700 Pell Grant $2,300 Pell Grant $4,050 Expected family contribution $1,750 SREB median income family: $37,600 U.S. poverty level family: $17,000

  29. Affordability GapPublic Two-Year Colleges and UniversitiesSREB States, 2004 GAP Fillers: Scholarships, State Grants, Extra Earnings, Cutting Costs Gap $1,350 Gap $2,150 Tax credit $1,500 Annual tuition, fees, and living expenses $6,900 SEOG $700 Pell Grant $2,300 Pell Grant $4,050 Expected family contribution $1,750 SREB median income family: $37,600 U.S. poverty level family: $17,000

  30. Affordability GapPublic Two-Year Colleges and UniversitiesSREB States, 2004 GAP Fillers: Scholarships, State Grants, Extra Earnings, Cutting Costs Gap $1,350 Gap $2,150 Tax credit $1,500 Annual tuition, fees, and living expenses $6,900 SEOG $700 Pell Grant $2,300 Pell Grant $4,050 Expected family contribution $1,750 SREB median income family: $37,600 U.S. poverty level family: $17,000

  31. Affordability GapPublic Two-Year Colleges and UniversitiesSREB States, 2004 GAP Fillers: Scholarships, State Grants, Extra Earnings, Cutting Costs Gap $1,350 Gap $2,150 Tax credit $1,500 Annual tuition, fees, and living expenses $6,900 SEOG $700 Pell Grant $2,300 Pell Grant $4,050 Expected family contribution $1,750 SREB median income family: $37,600 U.S. poverty level family: $17,000

  32. Affordability GapPublic Two-Year Colleges and UniversitiesSREB States, 2004 GAP Fillers: Scholarships, State Grants, Extra Earnings, Cutting Costs Gap $1,350 Gap $2,150 Tax credit $1,500 Annual tuition, fees, and living expenses $6,900 SEOG $700 Pell Grant $2,300 Pell Grant $4,050 Expected family contribution $1,750 SREB median income family: $37,600 U.S. poverty level family: $17,000

  33. Affordability GapPublic Two-Year Colleges and UniversitiesSREB States, 2004 GAP Fillers: Scholarships, State Grants, Extra Earnings, Cutting Costs Gap $1,350 Gap $2,150 Tax credit $1,500 Annual tuition, fees, and living expenses $6,900 SEOG $700 Pell Grant $2,300 Pell Grant $4,050 Expected family contribution $1,750 SREB median income family: $37,600 U.S. poverty level family: $17,000

  34. Affordability GapPublic Two-Year Colleges and UniversitiesSREB States, 2004 GAP Fillers: Scholarships, State Grants, Extra Earnings, Cutting Costs , Loans? Gap $1,350 Gap $2,150 Tax credit $1,500 Annual tuition, fees, and living expenses $6,900 SEOG $700 Pell Grant $2,300 Pell Grant $4,050 Expected family contribution $1,750 SREB median income family: $37,600 U.S. poverty level family: $17,000

  35. Grants and Loans to Freshmen SREB States Public Colleges, 2003 Grant or Loan Loan

  36. Grants and Loans to Freshmen SREB States Public Colleges, 2003 Grant or Loan Loan

  37. Appropriations and Tuition Growth SREB States, Public Colleges, 2001 to 2005 Grant or Loan $1.3 billion Two-Year Colleges $903.1 million $3.8 billion Four-Year Colleges $578.1 million

  38. Enrollment and Funding Changes SREB States, Public Colleges, 2001 to 2005 $920.7 million

  39. Enrollment and Funding Changes SREB States, Public Colleges, 2001 to 2005 $920.7 million

  40. Enrollment and Funding Changes SREB States, Public Colleges, 2001 to 2005 $920.7 million

  41. Enrollment and Funding Changes SREB States, Public Colleges, 2001 to 2005 $920.7 million

  42. Recap 1) Population trends … will make education progress harder. 2) Minority students … making progress, but alarming gaps remain. 3) Rising costs to attend college … a problem for student groups whose enrollment is increasing the fastest.

  43. For further information contact Joe.Marks@SREB.org 404-875-9211 www.SREB.org

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